RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! The final PGA Tour event of the 2020 calendar year is finally upon us, and we get a relatively strong field to wrap up the festivities. One-hundred and thirty-two players are set to tee it up in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, and our typical top-65 (and ties) will make the cut into the weekend.
Justin Thomas leads the brigade of talent at a price tag of $11,400 on DraftKings and is followed by Brooks Koepka at $11,000, Tony Finau at $10,700 and Daniel Berger at $10,400. There won't be a shortage of talent for us to pick from, so let's get started on what options we will be targeting to wrap up 2020.
I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Mayakoba Classic
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file, make a copy." We hope you enjoy!
Mayakoba Classic - PGA DFS Overview
El Camaleon Golf Club
7,100 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Paspalum
El Camaleon Golf Club has played host to the Mayakoba Golf Classic since its inception in 2007, and the best way to describe the venue would be as an exposed oceanside track that also features jungle terrain and swampland. Greg Norman architected the course to play as an extremely short par-71, but this year's official scorecard does have the track measuring about 100 yards more than it did a season ago. I don't believe that will do much in terms of difficulty, but the added distance is worth noting for a tournament known to produce low scores.
There are very few locations on the PGA Tour where distance doesn't hold an advantage over precision, but nearly 65 percent of all top-10 finishers during the previous seven years have been shorter than average off the tee. It's not to say that distance is a negative, but accuracy players will undoubtedly see a boost. One of the reasons for this has to do with players clubbing down to avoid the plethora of hazards that come into play. While El Camaleon does rank near the top-10 on tour every season in birdie or better percentage, it also lands in the same range when it comes to double bogey or worse rate. Mistakes will be made when balls get sprayed, and golfers can start to feel as if they are trapped in a tiny bubble once things begin to go wrong if the gusts pick up.
When we look at the template for the last handful of players who have won this event, we see guys who are either elite with their irons or were able to ride a hot putter to victory. The Paspalum greens do present a different look since they are extremely slow on the Stimpmeter, coming in at around a 10 or 11, and the majority of the reason behind this is to protect against potential gusts wreaking havoc on the field. I usually am not one that places much weight onto arbitrary putting statistics, but I believe finding putters that excel on a slower surface will be necessary for the week.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | El Camaleon | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | N/A | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 63% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 67% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 59% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.39 | 0.55 |
In Vegas, as of Monday, Justin Thomas leads the way at 6.5/1 and is followed by Brooks Koepka at 10/1, Harris English at 16/1, Tony Finau at 18/1 and Viktor Hovland and Daniel Berger at 20/1.
Key Stats
- Ball Striking (Weighted Towards Accuracy) 20%
- Weighted Putting (On Slow Greens) 15%
- Strokes Gained Approach 15%
- Weighted Birdie or Better % + Bogey Avoidance 15%
- Weighted Par-Four + Proximity 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 10%
- Strokes Gained Total in Moderate or Worse Wind 10%
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000:
Justin Thomas ($11,400)
A resort-venue that delivers birdies in bunches; sign me up with Justin Thomas every time. The American's game is predicated on his exceptional iron prowess, and it shouldn't hurt matters that Thomas ranks second in the field when it comes to strokes gained total in moderate to severe wind conditions. His ability to club down off the tee should help his propensity to flair drives, and it would come as a shock if we don't see the third-ranked player in the world present a respectable showing. Thomas is the betting favorite for a reason and checks pretty much every box for the week.
Brooks Koepka ($11,000)
If we are being honest, name recognition and upside for victory always somewhat skews Brooks Koepka's price tag on DFS sites. None of that suggests that the four-time major winner won't compete at a property like El Camaleon, but inflation in his price is taking place because of his perceived ceiling. Koepka's floor removes him from cash-game consideration, but I wouldn't discount his robust nature. The 30-year-old will be looking to end his season with a bang, and you could do a lot worse than an occasional GPP shot at his projected nine percent ownership rate.
Tony Finau ($10,700)
Tony Finau is always popular. It doesn't matter where you place his salary. The American is currently projected to garner roughly 10 percent of the ownership for the week, but I would be surprised if we don't see that climb as we approach Thursday. I wouldn't go as far as to recommend a full fade of the Utah native, but two missed cuts in Mexico in three years doesn't bode well for a player that struggled throughout all four days during his last event at the Masters. The usually safe Finau should be viewed as a slightly more volatile option than usual, and I am willing to bet against him churning out a top-five result to pay off his salary.
Daniel Berger ($10,400)
I can't seem to shake Daniel Berger. It hasn't exactly been paying off with five consecutive results outside of the top-15, but the 13th-ranked player in the world is a staple of consistency, which has been proven by posting 14 top-35 finishes over his last 15 tournaments. In theory, a venue like El Camaleon seems to be a good fit for the steady American, who should be able to use his overall skill set to not only score but also avoid falling into the potential pitfalls that the property presents. Berger's cash-game safety is tough to overlook, and his upside for victory is higher than some might realize.
Harris English ($10,100)
A good tournament presents a lot of talent, and a lot of talent offers the need to pick and choose your spots. Harris English grades out eighth in my model and is second from a statistical perspective, but we aren't going to have the ability to play every name we have mentioned so far. At some point, we have to take firmer stances than we would care to see, which means English is someone I am going to own less of than the general public. The four finishes the 31-year-old has produced at the event outside of the top-65 over the last five years doesn't entirely make up for his fifth-place result in 2019, and while I don't necessarily expect him to tank here as he has in previous years, 20 percent ownership mixed with the fact that the Georgia native hasn't won on tour in over seven years is too much for me accept when we consider he is the fifth-priced player on the board. Do I believe English can record a top-10 result? Of course. But you better believe I am willing to oppose a player that hasn't found the winner's circle since 2013 if everything else is going against him from a game theory standpoint.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Abraham Ancer ($9,900)
We are going to spend more time than usual with the names at the top of the board. GPP contests will most likely be won or lost with how DFS gamers can maneuver through the options priced above $9,000, and there are many quality selections to decide between when building our lineups. One of the positive traits of having this much diversity up top is that it will keep ownership totals somewhat deflated across the board. Options like Justin Thomas and Harris English will leak out in specific tournaments, but there is enough maneuverability to become unique with any route. With all that being said, Abraham Ancer's popularity will most likely have me deploying him as a cash-game option over a tournament play. His three straight top-25 results at El Camaleon, including his two top-10s during that time frame, shouldn't be overlooked in any format, however.
Viktor Hovland ($9,700)
I don't believe it is an overstatement to say that Viktor Hovland will get somewhat lost in the shuffle. Golfers like Abraham Ancer, Harris English and Russell Henley appear like they will all carry 15%+ ownership for the Mayakoba, and it might push the youngster into a position where he sits overlooked at around 10%. When we look at Hovland's' history at El Camaleon, a missed cut in 2019 doesn't exactly exude confidence for his encore act, but it doesn't take much change inside of my model to push Hovland into a top play on the board. Any made cut in 2019 would have moved the 23-year-old into being a top-10 selection, and a finish as low as 25th place would actually turn him into the top-ranked player in my model.
Rickie Fowler ($9,500)
I hate to say it; I like Rickie Fowler this week. Those are not words you hear from me often, but there will be a window of opportunity for us to grab the 31-year-old in a favorable EV spot. Fowler's 29th place result at the Masters to go along with his two recent top-16 finishes at this event will heighten his ownership marginally from what we have been receiving in recent months, but I don't think there is enough room for many to fit him inside of their builds with the amount of exposure that will be going on around him. I prefer to keep Fowler as a GPP-only play because of his erratic nature, but I will most likely find myself playing at least double what the rest of the industry does on him in Mexico.
Russell Henley ($9,300)
As was the case with Viktor Hovland, it wouldn't take much to move Russell Henley into the top spot of my model. Last year's missed cut at the venue has pushed him down to fifth overall, but the Georgia native lands inside the top-five in both his statistical rank, as well as his current form. Henley hasn't finished outside of 37th-place over his last nine events and is another alternative that has playability across the board.
Will Zalatoris ($9,200)
It has been an impressive run for Will Zalatoris over his short professional career. The Wake Forest grad has finished inside the top-16 in four of his five PGA Tour events during 2020, but it is worth noting that some of what he does well gets negated at the property. That isn't enough to remove Zalatoris from my player pool, but I do believe he becomes a better GPP option over anything else because of the way El Camaleon takes away his length. I will take some chances at a price that feels too cheap, but Zalatoris isn't completely immune from danger.
Emiliano Grillo ($8,300)
I can't even believe I am going to release this article after uttering such words, but I believe Emiliano Grillo is a reasonable cash-game play this week. How's that for a statement to sum up what 2020 has become. The Argentinian has caught fire throughout the industry, currently projected to be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and while I wouldn't put it past him platooning DFS lineups across the board, Grillo has a lot going in his direction. Four made cuts in his last four years at the event—including three top-15 finishes in that timeframe. And that doesn't even begin to touch his five made cuts over his previous six tournaments on tour. None of that makes him unsusceptible from collapsing on the greens, but I think he can produce a top-25 result for gamers that are willing to use him in smaller spurts than his current ownership rate.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
Russell Knox ($7,700)
First Emiliano Grillo. Now Russell Knox. This article has gone off the rails. Knox sputtered in his last start at the RSM Classic but will get a chance to get back on track at a venue that has been kind to him in the past. The Scottish golfer finished inside the top-nine here in all three starts from 2015 to 2017 and always receives a boost when handed windy elements.
Chris Kirk ($7,500)
It is a solid contrarian spot for Chris Kirk, who tends to do his best work at shorter tracks. Kirk has a seventh-place result here in 2016 and has produced three straight made cuts, which includes an 18th-place finish at the RSM Classic. At less than five percent ownership, he is an intriguing pivot away from the extremely popular Doug Ghim. I have the two men rated almost identically and will take the reduction that is being handed to me in ownership.
Chesson Hadley ($7,200)
It is never easy to predict what you will get out of Chesson Hadley, but that erraticness has opened up a lucrative window here in Mexico. I don't have any issues with making a strong statement that the American is ridiculously underpriced at just $7,200 on DraftKings, but that message becomes even more amplified when we look at the fact that under three percent of DFS lineups are currently projected to use the 33-year-old in a build. As far as value selections go, Hadley is the complete picture. His downside for mistakes is still as pronounced as ever, but this is a cheap gamble that won't require a ton of ownership to be exponentially overweight compared to the field. I could see myself rolling out a minimum of 20% of Hadley in all my contests, but you wouldn't even need that much to be in an advantageous spot to attack.
Maverick McNealy ($7,200)
There is a lot to like about Maverick McNealy from a game theory perspective. Currently under two percent owned and priced as just the 45th golfer on the slate, the youngster has a 26th place result here in 2019 to go along with three top-25 finishes over his last five events. It is worth pointing out that the two outcomes that didn't land inside the top-25 culminated with him missing the cut, but these are the risks I typically like to make when I can grab a golfer at an ownership rate that places him outside of the top half of the field. McNealy isn't a shoo-in to make the weekend, but I do expect him to outproduce his salary and ownership rate more often than not.
Harry Higgs ($7,000)
I'm not sure I would have the gumption to play Chesson Hadley, Maverick McNealy and Harry Higgs all in one lineup, but there is a spot to scatter the trio amongst your builds. As volatile as Hadley and McNealy can be on a given week, Higgs brings the most boom-or-bust form as of late, posting only one top-50 result over his last four times of teeing it up. Still, though, Higgs' 33rd-place finish here last season is encouraging, and his par-four scoring ability adds to the optimism.
Camilo Villegas ($7,000)
Camilo Villegas wasn't quite able to get the job done at the RSM Classic, concluding the event in sixth place, but it was enough to show flashes for the man who took golf by the horns in 2008 and 2009. Am I planning on going all-in on Villegas if I am making 100 builds? No! But there is a percentage here that seems correct. I wouldn't be discounting him out of my player pool in the example listed above and could see using him in roughly seven percent of lineups that I enter. If you only play a handful of lineups weekly, I don't think it hurts to leave him on the sidelines, but all of those decisions will have to come down to your risk tolerance.
Wesley Bryan ($6,600)
After letting down the industry as one of the chalkiest selections at the Bermuda Championship, Wesley Bryan enters the Mayakoba Classic at a more reasonable eight percent ownership projection. For a golfer under $7,000, that is still a substantial total to be posting, but I don't believe this is a situation where we should be considering Bryan to be over-owned. There is always going to be risk involved for a golfer that spent the better part of the year losing strokes off the tee during every start, but the short, compact layout of El Camaleon makes Bryan a trendy sleeper that is worth the risk.
Cameron Percy ($6,400)
An opening round 75 resulted in Cameron Percy's first missed cut in five events during the RSM Classic, but a Friday 65 almost got him back into the game. Percy is an up-and-down golfer that isn't immune to a poor result, but his $6,400 price tag is too shallow for my liking. His current form is dictating someone that should be over $7,000, making him a reasonable value for anyone looking for low-end roster depth.
Joseph Bramlett ($6,200)
We are talking about a borderline cut-maker that is floating between being on the wrong end of this cut line in Mexico when looking at my model, but it is difficult to find many selections that are worth playing once we get below $6,400 in price. Bramlett hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with four finishes between 41st and 45th place over his last five tournaments, but gamers could do worse when forced into a desperation pick.
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