Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): BMW Championship

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his BMW Championship DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! As always, please check out my weekly spreadsheet in the link below to get started on your research for the Wyndham Championship. You will be able to weigh out the categories however you see fit once you make a copy, and I always love hearing the success you have found while using the model. Thanks again for all the support, and let's have a successful week!

If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact Spencer on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - BMW Championship

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Caves Valley Golf Club

7,542 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

With no PGA event ever being held at Caves Valley Golf Club, we will have to dive deep to locate what statistics we want to use in our modeling for the BMW Championship. That doesn't mean we can't pinpoint a strategy to gain an advantage over the field, but I am someone that likes quantifiable statistics that can be measured from years of data, and it's something that we will have to go without for the second leg of the FedExCup playoff race.

Measuring in as a long Par-72, Caves Valley was designed by Tom Fazio in 1991 and features many of the typical quirks you would expect out of a layout of his construction. Deep bunkers besiege undulating fairways and greens, and the fast surface throughout makes the more extensive putting surface difficult because of the slope and quadrants that need to be traversed. Golfers with some distance should be able to cut corners on doglegs and carry sand traps, but water hazards are looming throughout for errant shots.

Six par-fours measure between 450-500 yards, and we get three that are potentially driveable at under 370. There are four par-threes that land at over 190 yards, with three of them coming in beyond 220, and long iron play seems critical for golfers trying to take advantage of the lengthier setup, which includes four par-fives that have second shots that will come from beyond 200. When we add in around the green play for these uniquely shaped greens and some sand save percentage/three-putt avoidance to cope with the quick, bunkered surroundings, we get a pretty good idea that Caves Valley might not be too different than other Fazio properties like Shadow Creek or Quail Hollow. Don't be afraid to get original with your research this week, as diversity will help to condense a 69-man player pool into a unique core.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Jon Rahm leads the way at 7/1 and is followed by Xander Schauffele at 16/1, Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas at 20/1 and Dustin Johnson at 22/1.

Key Stats 

• Weighted T2G (20%)
• Bunker Play + Three-Putt avoidance (17.5%)
• Ball-Striking (15%)
• Weighted Proximity 175+ Yards (15%)
• Weighted Par-Four (12.5%)
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (12.5%)
• Weighted Par-Three (7.5%)

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are seven players this week priced above $10,000:

• Safest Play: Jon Rahm ($11,700) - I've been saying for a year now that Jon Rahm is the best player in the world, and we are finally seeing it come together with high-end finish after high-end finish. Statistically, Rahm is on another planet, and it is hard to find a reason to fade him that doesn't involve price or ownership.
• Most Upside: Collin Morikawa ($10,000) - I will be monitoring where Collin Morikawa is at with his supposed back injury that he sustained during the Olympics, but the price and ownership projection are both great if he is fine.
• Favorite GPP Play: Xander Schauffele ($11,100) - The price tag is incorporating the no-cut narrative that follows Xander around, but I don't hate it if it means we get a version of him that is around 10% owned. The course seems ideally suited for his total driving and birdie-making acumen, and I tend to think he might be the best leverage play in this range.
• Fade: Dustin Johnson ($10,400), Jordan Spieth ($10,800) - Not exactly helpful to pick the two lowest-owned golfers in this section, but Spieth and Johnson both raised concerns during their performances at the Northern Trust. Spieth regressed back to the bad version of himself, losing 5.7 shots OTT, and Johnson continues to struggle with his par-five scoring - ranking 44th in this field over the last year.
• Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele ($11,100) - The correct answer is always Jon Rahm, but let's get a little more creative than the easy choice.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

• Safest Play: Daniel Berger ($9,000) -Only three players were graded inside the top-25 of all stats I measured this week (Berger, Morikawa and Rahm). The 56th at the Northern Trust might look shaky on paper, but it doesn't tell the whole story of him gaining 5.8 strokes with his irons.
• Most Upside: Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) - The irons never really got going for Cantlay at the Northern Trust, but he had averaged 3.62 shots on approach over his last five if we remove his performance at Liberty National. Cantlay has gained off the tee in 22 of his last 25, bent is his best surface and he has gained around the green in 17 of 19.
• Favorite GPP Play: Tony Finau ($9,800) - It is ironic because the biggest deterrent anyone can come up with for Tony Finau this week is that he just won. Like Xander Schauffele, I am sort of happy with the price tag because it creates an incredible leverage spot if I trust my math.
• Fade: Rory McIlroy ($9,400)  - I am fine with the idea of using Rory McIlroy as an outright wager because of his upside, but it is hard to stomach playing a golfer that is as volatile as he is at 20% ownership. That isn't to say the Irishman can't pay off his price tag with a top-10 finish, but I can live with whatever result he produces - as long as it isn't a win.
• Most Likely Winner: Viktor Hovland ($9,100)

$8,000 Range

• Safest Play: Scottie Scheffler ($8,900) - Scheffler ranks seventh in this field over his last 24 rounds in strokes gained total and is also fifth in birdie or better percentage - a statistic that will be vital at this no-cut event.
• Most Upside: Paul Casey ($8,200) -  Upside might not actually mean victory for Paul Casey, but I love the price tag we are getting on him at $8,200. Casey gained 8.9 strokes off the tee + approach over four days at the Northern Trust but imploded with his short game by losing 10.1 around the green and putting. The ball-striking is still as good as ever, and a top-10 is well within his grasp.
• Favorite GPP Play: Sungjae Im ($8,000) - I see no reason to jump off of Sungjae Im after he dominated with his ball-striking again at Liberty National. Im has averaged 2.8 shots on the field off the tee and 2.9 with his irons over his last three and any semblance of a short game will make him a contender.
• Fade: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,800)
• Most Likely Winner: Sungjae Im ($8,000)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)

• Safest Play: Shane Lowry ($7,900)
• Most Upside: Keegan Bradley ($7,700) 
• Favorite GPP Play: Sergio Garcia ($7,600)
• Fade: Erik Van Rooyen ($7,500)
• Most Likely Winner: Keegan Bradley ($7,700) 

Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider

Here are a few of my preferred $6,000 shots:

Marc Leishman ($6,700), Carlos Ortiz ($6,600), Emiliano Grillo ($6,500), Max Homa ($6,400), Ryan Palmer ($6,400), Patton Kizzire ($6,200), Aaron Wise ($6,300)

A lot of volatile options here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a few names pop up on the leaderboard.

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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