The Early Cut List (Week 2) - Time to Let Go?

July 26, 2020

Nate Green's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 2 of the season.

Welcome back to the Cut List. Writing this column at this exact moment is an interesting exercise because most cuts are either: really obvious, on account of a player opting out of the season or an injury that will cost several weeks; or the opposite of obvious, on account of no one has played more than three games at this point in the year--two when the bulk of this piece was written. We could use last year's data, but if you drafted someone, it's difficult to use data that was available when you made that decision to recommend you reverse it. Of course, an exception is Opening Day starting pitchers, who have now made 1/12th of their appearances. That's the equivalent of being midway through their third start in a normal season, by which point it usually is time to start dropping your fringe assets.

The upshot of all of this is that cut suggestions are, almost by definition, going to be overreactions at this point. (Of course, cuts come with adds, and it's almost as difficult to add someone this early as it is to cut.) Grab your grains of salt and let's dig in.

Last year's reminders which still apply: Recommendations are for mixed leagues -- redraft, unless otherwise noted, as keeper leagues have their own rules. Recommendations in one league size obviously apply to smaller leagues. You can also feel free to drop a shallower suggestion in a deeper league, but the dividing line is generally there for a reason. And, as usual, you can find ideas on how to replace your cut candidates at the Waiver Wire Pickups List/App.

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10-Team Cut Candidates

Oscar Mercado (OF, CLE)

When looking for cuts in shallow leagues after one single solitary game has been played, seeing where in the lineup someone hit in that one game may be the first place to look. Mercado batted ninth, which last we checked is the worst spot in the order for a hitter (unless MLB sneaked in some other crazy 2020 rule when we weren't looking). In last year's 482-PA debut, Mercado was very solid, with a .269 average, 15/15 in homers and steals, and 70/54 in R and RBI. However, he spent most of 2019 batting second, not ninth.

Madison Bumgarner (SP, ARI)

Projection systems are not fans of Bumgarner in 2020, giving him an ERA of anywhere from 4.29 at best to 4.72 at worst. His first start of 2020 wasn't terrible because he kept the ball in the yard, but he still allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings and also only posted a 4-3 K-BB ratio. He pitches in Texas next, which isn't the easiest start. And with only 11 total starts left, the one he provided already may have given enough information to sufficiently confirm the projections and move on.

Liam Hendriks (RP, OAK)

And don't forget relievers, almost always the most churn-worthy of fantasy assets. Hendriks is getting picked on here because he had the only blown save in the majors on Friday, and truth told it's probably too early to let go.

That said, Hendriks was already forced into an intentional walk, unintentionally walked another, and coughed up a bomb to Jason Castro that did the save-blowing damage. He also struck out two. The Athletics very recently had an ace reliever one year who turned into a dud the next--sorry, Blake Treinen. Hendriks, who it must be said is a different person than Treinen, had a 1.80 ERA and 1.87 FIP last year, but just a 3.21 xFIP and it was his first year with better than a 3.76 ERA since 2015. Always watch your relievers closely.

12-Team Cut Candidates

Gavin Lux (2B, LAD)

Lux will be up soon, but remember that a week is about 11% of this season. Additionally, the Dodgers have several second basemen who can play above him even once he does show up on the roster. And who knows what spot in the batting order he will claim on that roster; in his cup of coffee last September, he mostly bat seventh. Everything adds up to a less than ideal situation.

Of course, Lux is a case where if you don't cut him now, it certainly won't make sense to cut him once he comes up. And you probably knew the risk that he wouldn't be in the majors for all 60 games when you rostered him in the first place. That said, if you were going to reverse course, now is the time.

Kyle Tucker (OF, HOU)

Unlike Lux, Tucker is at least on the roster all year. He hit eighth in Dusty Baker's lineup on Saturday. It's hard to imagine him getting any higher unless he forces Baker to hit him higher, and that threshold is probably above where it should be. Tucker also looks like a platoon bat who won't hit vs. lefties, as was the case on Friday.

Projection systems aren't huge fans either of his playing time, estimating that he'll play in roughly 2/3 of the games, or his batting average. As usual, a low lineup spot bodes poorly for counting statistics, especially those R and RBI that a player doesn't directly control. Tucker is probably like Lux in that if he's on your roster, it's for the long haul, but his situation when on the club is actually weaker than Lux's.

Joe Musgrove (SP, PIT)

As you may know, more important than how many runs a pitcher gives up can be how many home runs and walks they give up, mitigated by strikeouts. Musgrove did fan seven in 5 2/3 innings in his 2020 debut, but walked three and allowed two bombs. He gets a second-straight 2019 league-average offense next with Milwaukee.

Musgrove also showed a half-mile per hour decline in fastball velocity in his start. He wasn't the only one, but several starters saw velocity increases too. The velo gives a possible underlying explanation for the home runs and, whether you cut or not, is something to watch going forward.

14-Team Cut Candidates

Trent Grisham (OF, SD)

Another example of someone who hit ninth in the batting order on the opening day of games. In Grisham's case, he is also hurt in standard leagues in that his batting average will be low, with no projection system suggesting better than a .250 median expectation after his .231 debut in 2019. A handful of homers and a couple of steals is probably not going to get it done so low in the order for the team that plays at Petco. Because Grisham is coming over from Miller Park, San Diego's home confines are riskier to Grisham's profile than for someone who was on the Padres last year.

Sam Hilliard (OF, COL)

Hilliard gave us 2020's first golden sombrero on Friday when he struck out four times in four plate appearances. He also hit eighth. Of course, none of the Rockies were very effective in that game, with 14 strikeouts in a 1-0 defeat. But that last bit of info doesn't exactly help, either.

Yes, Hilliard plays his home games at Coors Field, but if you don't make contact you can't hit the ball anywhere. If you're looking for evidence of a player who may get off to a rocky start--which will naturally have an outsize effect this season--then a complete inability to make contact in Game #1 may be the best evidence you can find so far.

Rich Hill (SP, MIN)

Although not technically injured, Hill won't be making his Twins debut as planned. Hill's always-shaky health status is baked into his fantasy value, but if there were ever a season not to mess with it, the 60-game variety is that season.

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