RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.
Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.
Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 9 of the fantasy baseball season. For a complete list, check out our premium tool, as explained below.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:- Fantasy baseball injury reports
- Fantasy baseball trade analyzer
- Daily MLB starting lineups for fantasy baseball
- Fantasy baseball BvP matchups data (Batter vs. Pitcher)
- Fantasy baseball PvB matchups data (Pitcher vs. Batter)
- Who should I start? Fantasy baseball player comparisons
- Fantasy baseball closer depth charts, bullpens, saves
- Fantasy Baseball live scoreboard, daily leaderboards
Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool
Identifying top contact rate risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. Here's a glimpse at one of our advanced tools:
This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games, because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!
Contact Rate Risers
Lucas Duda (1B, NYM) - 94% contact rate last seven days (+17%)
Duda is on some kind of tear, hitting four homers and driving in eight over the past six games. That extends to 11 RBI in the last eight games as well. He is this week's biggest riser on the strength of a .407 average and only three Ks for the usually free-swinging first baseman. The power has always been there, but it's nice to see a 16.5% BB% and .391 OBP on the season from a slugger such as him. Duda is still available in 85% of Yahoo leagues, so there's no excuse not to take advantage of his smoking-hot bat.
Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) - 87% contact rate last seven days (+14%)
The number 87 represents both good and bad luck for Swanson this week. While his contact rate is definitely encouraging, it has only resulted in an .087 average in the last seven days. Sooner or later, you figure Swanson's .242 BABIP would rise, but it hasn't happened yet. At least there's some run production to speak of now, as Swanson has logged 13 runs and 13 RBI in May. Still, the loss of Freddie Freeman will only hurt the offense as a whole, meaning it might be a slow climb toward regaining fantasy relevance for the rookie shortstop. If you're a Swanson owner, you can live with mediocre production a while longer and hope for the best or find a bench spot for him until he hopefully takes off in the second half.
Anthony Rendon (3B, WAS) - 100% contact rate last seven days (+13%)
That man is at it again. Rendon exemplifies the highs and lows a hitter will endure through the baseball season more dramatically than most. His latest power binge seems to be over, but the fantasy value hasn't stopped coming. Rendon is hitting .440 without a single strikeout in the past week, including four multi-hit games. Be aware that there isn't likely to be another home run surge coming, as the Nationals continue their west coast trip in Oakland and then Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Seven of his nine homers and 25 of his 32 RBI have come at home. Still, he's a must-start at this point and is providing enough in the average and runs categories to help all mixed-league owners.
Albert Pujols (1B, LAA) - 91% contact rate last seven days (+12%)
Phat Albert continues to bounce in and out of the lineup, but when he's been in he's been his usual run-producing self. His 35 RBI put him well on pace to surpass 100 RBI in a season for the 14th time in his illustrious career. Pujols may be motivated by the fact he sits two homers shy of 600 for his career, but it could be leading him to chase more pitches. His 16.1% K% is the highest of his career, two points higher than his rookie season. That could be turning around, however, as Pujols has a 4:2 BB:K ratio with a .320 average over the last two weeks. On the other hand, Mike Trout's thumb injury comes at an inopportune time, possibly costing Pujols several RBI opportunities. His value is on a flat line at the moment, making him a hold in all leagues.
Contact Rate Fallers
Miguel Sano (3B, MIN) - 47% contact rate last seven days (-16%)
The top faller in contact rate for this week is none other than fantasy tease, Miguel Sano. It was starting to look like his third year could be the breakout we've been waiting for, but the pause button has been hit on that progression. Sano has whiffed an alarming 11 times in his last 16 at-bats and 40 times in his last 79 at-bats. He's still slashing .292/.406/.590 on the season, so it's not time to panic or sell-high just yet. The time to bench him is long past, though. Be patient with the young slugger and wait until he decides to start actually making contact again before deploying him.
Zack Cozart (SS, CIN) - 74% contact rate last seven days (-11%)
Regression. Regression never changes. It was just a matter of time before Cozart's averages started to normalize and that time is now. In five full MLB seasons, Cozart has never finished with an average over .258 or more than 63 RBI. He may not fall that far, but if you have the chance to sell high do it now. His contact rate is still adequate and hasn't affected his average (.320 in last seven days), but that .397 BABIP is just waiting to jump off a cliff. An 11 point drop in contact could be the first sign.
Manny Machado (3B/SS, BAL) - 64% contact rate last seven days (-11%)
I'm starting to receive buy-low offers from rival owners in the leagues where I own Machado, but I'm holding firm. A .225 average is not acceptable for the All-Star third baseman, but the power numbers are just fine and his .225 BABIP is due to regress closer to his .304 career mark. He is striking out a bit more than usual (20.3% K%) but he's also walking more. Most of his peripherals are fairly close to normal, so it should be a matter of time until he's back near the top of the fantasy rankings. If you are able to buy him from a befuddled owner in your league, congrats.
Randal Grichuk (OF, STL) - 63% contact rate last seven days (-10%)
If you want to know why Grichuk was optioned to Triple-A, just as he was last season, look no further than his .276 OBP and one home run in the month of May. He is an obvious drop in all leagues until he resurfaces in St. Louis, but will he rebound as he did in the second half of last season? He's always been a big strikeout guy and we can't realistically expect him to raise his average much higher than the .250-.260 range given his free-swinging ways. We can expect Grichuk to give deep-league owners (think 16-team or NL-only) a power boost, since his 6.5% HR/FB rate and 31% line drive rate indicate some tough luck, despite a .300 BABIP. He doesn't need to pick up many more base hits to provide value, he just needs a few more to start leaving the yard. Don't give up on him completely if you need help in the HR category later on this season.
