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We had 46 FBS vs. FBS games in Week 1, and boy were there some great ones! Even the FCS had decent weeks with Bryant and St. Francis forcing Florida International and Akron to overtime, respectively. William and Mary took it to Charlotte, beating them by 17 points. We also saw Delaware take out Navy. Iowa got seven the hard way (a field goal and two safeties) to escape South Dakota State. I told you to take that bet!
What did we learn in Week 1? The top is tough. North Carolina can still score with the best, but they'll need to with that defense. 12 teams in a college football playoff is nothing but a cash grab because Oregon proved that it is completely unnecessary and does nothing to help crown a "true" champion.
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
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CFB Betting Picks 9/9:
Louisville at Central Florida(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't know...this still feels a bit off to me. I'm not sure that Malik Cunningham will be pressured by this UCF team the way that he was by Syracuse. I'm still going Louisville, but this game is going to be nuts!
Boise State(-16.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Broncos have made a career out of winning the games they should. I know they looked awful against Oregon State, but the Beavers are a sneaky-good team. New Mexico is neither sneaky nor good. Give me Boise.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 1 Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone when they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from week 1. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Central Michigan at (12)Oklahoma State(-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pokes were up 44-15 at halftime. I had written this game off, but the Chips came through for me with a huge 22-point fourth quarter. If the Cowboys can't close out games, this is going to be a long season for them.
West Virginia at (17)Pittsburgh(-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was everything that a Backyard Brawl should be. West Virginia had this game in hand and lost it. Still, this has to be an encouraging sign for a Mountaineers team that really struggled to move the ball last year. Converted tight end C.J. Donaldson is a wrecking ball out of the backfield.
Ball State at Tennessee(-34.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Tennessee offense is going to be something special, but the defense didn't look too shabby either.
Penn State(-3.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That damn half. Purdue should have won this game a couple of different times. That said, Sean Clifford is the reason Penn State won this game. He didn't go out there and fold on the last drive. He took command and won the game. If this is a sign of things to come, Penn State could be better than advertised.
Louisiana Tech at Missouri(-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Missouri started a little slow but ended up running all over the Bulldogs...literally.
New Mexico State at Minnesota(-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Come on Jerry! You can't even muster one damn point to bust this spread? I can't believe you did me like that!
Western Michigan at (15)Michigan State(-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a little too close for comfort. Jalen Berger is going to be a really good back in this system. Payton Thorne's four passing touchdowns were nice. The 50% completion percentage leaves something to be desired.
Virginia Tech(-8.5) at Old Dominion: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The attitude may have changed at Virginia Tech, but there are still a lot of things to iron out. One team really wanted to be there. I'm not sure the other did...
Temple at Duke(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a nice game for Riley Leonard. If Jalon Calhoun has a decent QB to throw to him, Duke might not finish in the ACC cellar. Of course, I underestimated just how bad Temple is. Ouch!
Illinois at Indiana(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a great game. Connor Bazelak looked the part for Indiana and we saw hide nor hair of Jack Tuttle. This is Bazelak's team. How underrated is Chris Brown? How about 353 rushing yards in two games!
TCU(-10.5) at Colorado: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was a nice game for Riley Leonard. If Jalon Calhoun has a decent QB to throw to him, Duke might not finish in the ACC cellar. Of course, I underestimated just how bad Temple is. Ouch!
Colorado State at (8)Michigan(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Cade McNamara passed his test. Of course, it's easy with Blake Corum running the way he did.
(13)North Carolina State(-11.5) at East Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Every time I watch these two teams play, I think they need to play every year. I always seem to forget that ECU plays them really tough. A missed extra point and missed field goal stopped the Pirates from pulling this upset. This is a game that they really should have won.
Buffalo at Maryland(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I missed the memo that Maryland was going to use this game as running practice.
Rutgers at Boston College(-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boston College blew this game just about every way that you possibly could. I'm impressed with the Rutgers defense and that offense has better skill players than advertised.
North Carolina at Appalachian State(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that it's only Week 1, but this game is going to be hard to beat for the best game of the season. The two teams combined for 62 points in the fourth quarter. Appalachian State missed a two-point conversion with just over 30 seconds left and the Tarheels picked it up and ran it in for a touchdown. With their last chance, the Mountaineers scored in 25 seconds but missed a second two-point conversion to lose at home. What a game!
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Bowling Green at UCLA(-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Easy money. Dorian Thompson-Robinson looks as explosive as ever. Zach Charbonnet was still tough to bring down. We didn't learn a ton about the defense, but this was still very promising for the Bruins.
UTEP at (9)Oklahoma(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Sooners let off the gas in the fourth quarter so I still had to sweat this. I was impressed with Dillon Gabriel's debut, but I don't know what we can really learn from beating up on UTEP.
(11)Oregon vs. (3)Georgia(-16.5) at Atlanta: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
One more time for those of you in the cheap seats: THERE IS NO NEED FOR PLAYOFF EXPANSION! I think this game proves that not to mention that it gave us what is essentially a playoff game in Week 1. It's things like this that make college football special. I'm going to enjoy it before greed ruins it.
(23)Cincinnati at (19)Arkansas(-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was a close one. Arkansas only covered by that half.
(24)Houston(-3.5) at UTSA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I told you UTSA was good enough to win this. I was pulling for them the entire time. I still hate the new overtime rules. This is just an exciting team to watch. I'm going to enjoy the last year of Frank Harris and Zakhari Franklin. This won't be the last time UTSA wins us money!
Arizona at San Diego State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
What an ugly game for SDSU. Arizona is going to be pretty good, but there really isn't any excuse for this if you're the Aztecs. This game wasn't even close. They just got blown off their brand-new field. Get used to hearing the name Jacob Cowing. I know most of you don't pay attention to UTEP, but trust me. He's legit good.
Tulsa(-6.5) at Wyoming: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
That's what I get for trusting Tulsa. This was another wild finish, but not quite up to the standard that UTSA-Houston and Appalachian State-UNC set earlier in the day.
Troy at (21)Mississippi(-21.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ole Miss didn't care at all about covering this. They basically held an open audition at running back in the second half. This game was never as close as the scoreboard suggests.
(25)BYU(-11.5) at South Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
BYU led 38-7 at the half and let off the gas. They still nearly covered this by three times the line. I hammered this bet this weekend. I made sure I wasn't coming out behind.
Texas State(-1.5) at Nevada: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have bet more on this. I knew that line was backwards.
Rice at (14)USC(-32.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC scored three touchdowns on interception returns and spread the ball all over the field on offense. I would have to say that the Lincoln Riley debut was a resounding success.
Florida Atlantic(-4.5) at Ohio: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Here's a name to remember for MACtion later this year: James Bostic. This was a miserable showing by the Owls D one week after dominating Charlotte. Considering Charlotte got thrashed by William and Mary, I clearly gave too much credit to the Owls.
Middle Tennessee State at James Madison(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
James Madison is probably good enough to finish in the top half of all but the SEC and the Big Ten. How was that for their first taste of FBS football as a permanent member? This is going to be a fun team to watch!
(7)Utah(-2.5) at Florida: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
On the grand stage, this was not a game that Utah could afford to lose. This is a big win for the Gators, but until they go out of the state of Florida and win a big game, I won't say they're back yet.
Miami(OH) at (20)Kentucky(-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Easy money. I should have maxed out this bet.
Army at Coastal Carolina(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It was a rough week for the service academies. Navy only musters one touchdown against FCS Delaware and the Cadets lose by double digits in Conway. We have zero reason to doubt Grayson McCall anymore. None!
Liberty(-3.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Frank Gore Jr. had a monster game in the loss. If the son of a former star NFL running back has a monster game for a Conference USA team, does anyone notice? I sure did.
Massachusetts at Tulane(-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Death, taxes, and UMass getting covered. In this wild and crazy world, it's nice to know that we can still rely on those three things.
Utah State at (1)Alabama(-41.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was not a problem for Alabama. The Tide won by 55 and let off the gas because they didn't score in the fourth quarter. There's a reason I didn't touch this game.
(5)Notre Dame at (2)Ohio State(-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ohio State's offense bogged down for a couple of quarters after Jaxon Smith-Njigba left the game. This was a good performance by the Irish D (and Ohio State's, for that matter). Marcus Freeman has already made a difference there. This game was closer than the score indicates.
Memphis at Mississippi State(-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The air raid was run to perfection. Leach gets revenge. I get the L.
Georgia State at South Carolina(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Look out folks...the Gamecocks finally have an offense again. It has been a slow couple of years.
SMU(-10.5) at North Texas: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Either the Ponies are really good or UTEP is really bad. I gravitate towards the latter.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas(-37.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There's a reason that I wouldn't touch this...and I still don't believe in Texas yet.
Louisville(-4.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Garrett Shrader played his best game for Syracuse in this game, but I think the real story was the Syracuse defense. They rattled and turned over Malik Cunningham for the entire game. It was an impressive showing for Syracuse on both sides of the ball. Chalk this one up to coaching. Dino Babers is one of the best around.
Boise State at Oregon State(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Chance Nolan looked like he has taken that next step. That was not the case for Hank Bachmeier. What does Boise do with Taylen Green? He looked better than Bachmeier in every facet of this game and the offense was able to move with him in the game. I'm excited to see what that guy can do.
Kent State at Washington(-23.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Michael Penix change the culture in Seattle already? It's certainly possible. It looked like it in the opener.
Western Kentucky(-15.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There's a lot of money to be made betting against the Warriors right now. At some point, they are going to figure this out, but it has been rough going for them with 112 points allowed in the first two games.
Florida State vs. LSU(-2.5) at New Orleans: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wow, that was a tough way to lose, especially with the heart LSU showed in coming from behind. If nothing else, Brian Kelly has changed the culture there. Everything else is going to fall into place.
(4)Clemson(-22.5) at Georgia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Tigers made me sweat this for a while. They didn't pull away until the fourth quarter.
College Football Betting Season Results:
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I went a respectable 25-21 in the "official" Week 1. That leaves me at 28-25 on the season right now. I know...that's not the important part. What about the points? Here's the breakdown.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-2 (4-2) = 2
2. 8-7 (8-8) = 0
3. 9-7 (10-9) = 3
4. 3-3 (3-4) = -4
5. 2-2 (3-2) = 5
I came out nine points ahead this week, putting me at +6 on the season and +81 overall in my 5+ years of doing this. As long as I come out ahead, I'm happy. Let's have a good Week 2!
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