College Football Betting Picks: Against The Spread (11/23/24)

We have our busiest Saturday since Week 3, with 53 games this week. Judging by my performance lately, that's 53 more chances to fail. I'm optimistic about this week since I feel like I was on the right track last week. I went against my instincts a couple of times, was robbed by the refs once, and fell victim to a couple of fluky plays. It happens. I was closer to being 29-24 than 24-29, but so it goes.

I went against my instincts a couple of times, was robbed by the refs once, and fell victim to a couple of fluky plays. It happens. I was closer to being 29-24 than 24-29, but so it goes.

These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Don't bet more than you can afford. This is supposed to be for fun and excitement.  I may be under .500 on the season, but I'm having a blast and am still up some real money.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 13 (11/23/24)

I will pick every college football game every week. It's not a top-5. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game, average them out at all the Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

(5) Indiana at (2) Ohio State (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Indiana hasn't played anyone! If Indiana played (insert SEC team of choice here)'s schedule, they would be under .500! It's all just noise meant to distract you. The spread on this says it all: this game is more closely matched than ESPN (and the committee) want to believe. Why do they care? It's simple. Ohio State=money.

Indiana isn't a draw and the committee couldn't care less if they missed the playoff. That's what the committee wants. Brand names mean money. That makes this game insanely hard to bet on. Why? Take a look at Miami vs. Virginia Tech and Cal. Take a look at Penn State against USC. The officials intervened in those games at critical times in favor of the "brand" name.

I want to believe in impartial zebras, but it seems like a myth this year. The only people that want Ohio State to win this are the OSU fans and the committee. That leaves roughly 100 million Hoosier fans for this week at least.

In a fair fight, I think Indiana stays within double figures. They are talented and well-coached. Curt Cignetti gets the most out of his three-star recruits while your five-star is on the bench trying to figure out what he did wrong.

This line opened at -14.5 for the Buckeyes, but there's money coming in on Indiana. How much of it is wishful thinking? If Ohio State plays their best, this won't be much of a game. If the Hoosiers do, they win. I'll take Indiana, but I'm not betting on it for the reasons stated above. I was hoping for more points on the Indiana side so that I could really feel comfortable with this.

Wake Forest at (8) Miami (FL) (-23.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson said Hank Bachmeier will start Saturday at Miami.

— Les Johns (@Les_Johns) November 19, 2024

I'm going to say this because someone needs to. Wake Forest is better without Hank Bachmeier. Michael Kern is familiar with the system and he not only blew Carolina's cover last week, but he had Wake within a touchdown for the entire second half after Bachmeier led them to a sole field goal in the first half.

Bachmeier is starting, so I tend to think Miami covers. If Wake puts Kern in again at halftime like any normal coach would, Wake blows it. If you want to know how NIL is affecting college football, this is it. Wake paid money for Bachmeier, and they don't want money to rot on the bench.

The problem is that Miami hasn't beaten any team by 24 points since South Florida on September 21. Give me Wake. I have to think Dave Clawson has more sense than letting Bachmeier struggle all game.

(9) Mississippi (-10.5) at Florida

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line is rising, and I'm not sure why. Yeah, the Mississippi defense played an excellent game against Georgia. That game was at home with a less explosive quarterback than DJ Lagway. Florida will struggle to run the ball, which makes this hard, but I'm going with the Gators. They won't win, but Ole Miss is going to sweat this in the Swamp.

(13) SMU (-9.5) at Virginia

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I like the Hoos, but they aren't there yet. Virginia has talent there, but it isn't all put together. Give me the Ponies, but I'm likely leaving this alone.

(25) Illinois at Rutgers (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Oh, so now Rutgers gets love? Where were you bandwagoners last week? Just as I thought Vegas was too high on Maryland, I feel Rutgers is getting too much credit for beating Maryland. I still like Illinois straight up. Want further proof of the Maryland boost? The conference relegated this game to Peacock, while the next one gets BTN.

Iowa (-6.5) at Maryland

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

At least the right team is favored this time. Iowa is taking heat for losing to a UCLA team that was awful in September (but isn't now). We're going to see the Hawkeye team that dropped 40 on back-to-back weeks against Northwestern and Wisconsin. Give me Iowa.

Connecticut at Syracuse (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Ahhh...the good old days of the Big East. Before the mega conferences ate everything up, and the Big East excommunicated all non-Catholics. Those were simpler times and this was a conference game. Now it's just ugliness in the Loud House. Give me Syracuse.

North Carolina (-2.5) at Boston College

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I still think the Eagles were better with Thomas Castellanos. Now, we have our first high-profile portal entry. Give me Carolina.

Sam Houston at Jacksonville State (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Both teams entered FBS last year. Jacksonville has had markedly more success, in no small part due to Tre Stewart. Give me the Gamecocks.

I don’t know much about Jacksonville State, but I do know Tre Stewart could play almost anywhere in the country. This guy is legit. pic.twitter.com/3HwtJvCF6k

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) October 31, 2024

Massachusetts at Georgia (-42.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Georgia deserves a break. Their schedule turned out to be brutal. Give me Georgia, but I'll never bet a line like this.

UTEP at (11) Tennessee (-40.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Tennessee decimating Kent feels like so long ago, doesn't it? UTEP isn't much better than Kent. I get why this line is where it is, and for the same reason, I won't (and you shouldn't) bet on this. I'll take the Vols, but you couldn't pay me to bet this.

Western Kentucky at Liberty (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

One team needed overtime to beat UMass at home last week. Don't bet on that team. Give me WKU.

Bowling Green (-10.5) at Ball State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Hey! When did you schmucks become too important for MACtion? Now, you're just another game on a packed Saturday. Had you played on Wednesday as you should have, Harold Fannin Jr. and Justin Bowick would have been given the stage they deserve. Give me Ball State.

Rice (-6.5) at UAB

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Really? I don't think so. Give me UAB.

New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The only thing that I know for sure is that this will be an ugly, ugly, game. I'll take the home team.

James Madison (-7.5) at Appalachian State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is a tough one, and I really don't like the hook. I think I have to go with App State at home.

Arizona at TCU (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

So, Arizona has looked as they should have this year at home lately. Can they take the show on the road? This feels high. I'll take Arizona.

Florida International (-8.5) at Kennesaw State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Kennesaw took Sam Houston to overtime last week, and the Bearkats may be a better team. I'll take Kennesaw to blow the cover.

Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Warhawks have fallen on hard times, but not this hard. Give me ULM.

South Alabama (-21.5) at Southern Mississippi

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Southern Miss has scored a combined six points in the last two games. Give me the Jags.

Charlotte (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This feels a little ambitious for Charlotte to win in Boca. I'll take the Owls.

Kentucky at (3) Texas (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This game for #Texas is not as easy as it looks a trap game against #Kentucky This Wildcats team is built the same exact way as Georgia which dominated the horns & the longhorns are built the same exact way as Ole Miss who Kentucky beat! If it is a low scoring game watch out! pic.twitter.com/pp5d1HOMk0

— The cfb lliason (@realfbllliason) November 21, 2024

I know that this is in Austin, but doesn't it feel a bit high? Kentucky beat Ole Miss and only lost to Georgia by one. I'll take Kentucky. They're not winning this, but I don't think they'll lose by three touchdowns, either.

(4) Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It's easy to look efficient against a terrible Purdue team. It's quite another to do it to a solid Minnesota squad. Penn State wins, but they're not covering in Minneapolis.

(14) BYU at (21) Arizona State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This game opened even, and I don't like that it has flipped all the way with a hook to the Sun Devils. Mind you, I don't like it because I was going to go heavier on Sparky. Now, I'll just have to lower the bet.

(16) Colorado (-2.5) vs. Kansas at Kansas City, MO

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

You're not pulling a fast one on Vegas. They know that Kansas might be the best team in the Big 12 (16) right now. Both teams need this game for different reasons. Colorado needs it to still have a playoff shot. Kansas needs it for a bowl berth. This is going to be a fun showdown at Arrowhead. Give me the Ralphies, but it's going to be close.

Northwestern at Michigan (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The only team that Michigan has covered this line against was Fresno in the opener. They didn't even beat Arkansas State by more than 10 points. I'll go with Northwestern.

Wisconsin at Nebraska (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Nebraska has lost 10 straight to Wisconsin and has only beaten them once in 13 tries as a conference opponent. Besides, Wisconsin almost beat Oregon. I have to go with the Badgers.

Stanford at California (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Hopefully I captured the chaos of The Axe handover to @CalFootball. The Cal Axe Committee even fell and ate it on top of The Axe shortly after taking it from Stanford. And it all started with a polite handshake: pic.twitter.com/ZuXolejZUz

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 24, 2019

This is too many. This is one of the best rivalries west of the plains. Where else do students stare at each other for four hours without saying anything? Can your rivalry do that? Give me Stanford.

Texas Tech (-3.5) at Oklahoma State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Cowboys are playing better, but better isn't going to cut it. Give me Tech.

Central Florida (-2.5) at West Virginia

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Yes, West Virginia has lost three straight home games, but it's against the class of the Big 12 (16)...Kansas State, Iowa State, and Baylor. UCF isn't there yet. The Mountaineers defend their home turf here.

San Diego State at Utah State (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, are the Aztecs this far down? Maybe. Give me the Aggies, just in case.

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I've made money betting against Coastal this year, but GSU just lost to Troy. Give me the Chanticleers.

East Carolina at North Texas (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Just because this is going to be a fun game to watch doesn't mean we should bet on it. I'll take the Mean Green at home, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost.

Tulsa at South Florida (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

A UAB team that is a home dog to Rice this week beat Tulsa by 38 points just three weeks ago. Give me USF.

Louisiana Tech at Arkansas (-22.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This feels high, considering the way the Bulldogs have played defense. Give me La Tech. They won't win, but this is too many.

Pittsburgh at Louisville (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I would believe this if Louisville hadn't just lost to Stanford. Give me Pitt.

(23) Missouri (-7.5) at Mississippi State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Mississippi State's crowing achievement is staying within 10 points of Georgia. Give me Missouri, I guess.

Troy at Louisiana (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Give me the Cajuns. Last week was a fluke for Troy.

(19) Army vs. (6) Notre Dame (-14.5) at Yankee Stadium

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Irish have made short work of the other two service academies this year, but Army feels different. Army looks different. This is only a couple of hours from West Point. It may as well be a home game (what I wouldn't give to see Notre Dame play this at Michie Stadium). Give me Army.

Our last Heisman winner, General Pete Dawkins, led the last team to beat Notre Dame

Do it for the underdogs.
Do it for the G5 schools who are always belittled by the media.
And do it for Dawkins, he’s waited 66 years to watch us sing second against nd.

— #18 Army Barstool (@ArmyBarstool) November 18, 2024

(12) Boise State (-22.5) at Wyoming

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This feels a touch high. The Cowboys have played fairly well over the last couple of weeks. Give me Wyoming.

Washington State (-11.5) at Oregon State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Pac 2 Championship game lost some luster with Oregon State losing five straight, including getting blanked by Air Force. I'll take the Cougs.

Baylor (-7.5) at Houston

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Houston can't stop Bryson Washington. Give me the Bears. I mean...DA BEARS!

Georgia State at Texas State (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, that's a lot of points. Uh...in Jordan McCloud, we trust! Go Bobcats!

(7) Alabama (-13.5) at Oklahoma

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I'm not delusional enough to think we stand a chance. The Tide are gonna roll...

(15) Texas A&M (-2.5) at Auburn

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Auburn still has Payton Thorne, which is a liability when it comes to trying to win football games. I'll take the Aggies.

(22) Iowa State (7.5) at Utah

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I was hoping for a line like this. I'm smashing the Cyclones! It gets cold in Ames, too, people.

Marshall at Old Dominion (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I see this line, and I understand it, but I'm still following the Herd.

Vanderbilt at LSU (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

LSU brought a fake Mike the Tiger into Death Valley and the college football gods’ revenge was swift. pic.twitter.com/bICKXDA66b

— Robert Behrens (@rcb05) November 10, 2024

I'm telling you...the curse of the fake Mike is real. Give me Vandy!

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Duke

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

How about we move this to Cameron Indoor and make it fun? Give me the Hokies.

Cincinnati at Kansas State (-8.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Something is wrong with the Wildcats right now. I don't know what it is, but losing to Houston and Arizona State seems odd, considering how good this team was to start the season. Give me Cincinnati. I'm not sure the Wildcats can pull out of this.

USC (-4.5) at UCLA

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I still like UCLA outright.

Air Force at Nevada (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This feels like overcompensation. Oregon State is just that bad right now. Give me Nevada.

Colorado State at Fresno State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Fresno has lost to Air Force and Hawaii in the last two weeks. Rams outright!

There were a lot more games this week, but that doesn't mean I got more brave. I only have three max bets and three four-point bets. I also only have four one-point bets. I think this is the most two-point bets I've ever had with 29. This is a week for moderation. I have 23 on the threes, so I'll still have some action this weekend.

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