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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings picks against the spread for Week 6 He has every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
What a week, huh? The Red River Shootout was another wild one. Several games came down to the last minute or less. Number one goes down. What more can you ask for? There may have only been 51 games, but there were some great ones out there. Well, unless you're Maryland.
We do have one game tonight. Instead of writing an article for one pick, I will just put it out on here. Appalachian State is favored by 4.5 on the road in Lafayette. When we last saw Louisiana, they almost lost to South Alabama. Give me App State with 3 confidence points.
— Mike Marteny (@MikeMarteny) October 12, 2021
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We had our first Fun Belt Tuesday of the season this week. I posted the pick on Twitter, so you can find it there. That is likely how most of my Tuesday picks will go unless there's enough for an article of its own. This week, we have two games on Thursday and four more on Friday. I will pick those six before we get to the results from last week. You don't want to miss that. It was a wild one.
CFB Betting Picks 10/14 and 10/15:
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Has Vegas seen Memphis play defense? Me either. They're supposed to cover an option team by double digits? I don't think so. Navy wont win, but this stays close.
Georgia Southern at South Alabama(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
South Carolina transfer Jake Bentley hasn't found the going much easier in Mobile than it was in Columbia. However, the Eagles have given up more passing yards than any team in the country. I'll take the Jaguars at home.
Marshall(-10.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Marshall is capable of covering this. They should cover this. That doesn't mean much this year. The Herd almost lost outright to a bad Old Dominion team last week because they couldn't stop the run. Give me North Texas.
Clemson(-13.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Clemson defense is legit. The offense is nowhere near legit. The Orange have a solid defense. The only question I have is if the Syracuse offense can do enough against the Clemson D to keep their own defense fresh. I'll take the Orange. They're not winning this, but they are a better team with Garrett Shrader under center.
California at (9)Oregon(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I know Cal isn't a good team, but the only good game this Oregon offense has played was against Ohio State. They were a mess against Stony Brook! I'll take Oregon, but there is no way I would bet this. I don't have enough trust in the offense, especially since we don't know how they'll do without CJ Verdell.
(25)San Diego State(-9.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Rivalry or not, the Spartans are a mess. Give me the Aztecs. They might win by 20.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 6 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I feel like I had a pretty solid week. I put about 3/4 of my betting for the week on Ohio State, so I came out well in real life. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Here are the results from week 6. I picked 51 games and all 51 played. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
(15)Coastal Carolina(-19.5) at Arkansas State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Grayson McCall did play and played well while he was in there. It was another methodical beatdown in the Sun Belt for the Chanticleers.
Houston(-6.5) at Tulane: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is what most expected from Houston this year. Clayton Tune had a strong game. KeSean Carter had his best game as a Cougar. Freshman Alton McCaskill continues to be a shot in the arm to a run game that needed it. The defense even played fairly well.
Temple at (5)Cincinnati(-29.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. Cincinnati knows just how important style points will be due to the relative weakness of the AAC.
Charlotte(-3.5) at Florida International: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It was a good game for Chris Reynolds, but Maryland transfer Max Bortenschlager dominated the airwaves in a losing effort. Tyrese Chambers had 201 receiving yards....on just three catches!
Stanford at (22)Arizona State(-12.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a big letdown for Stanford and finally a bit of vindication for the Sun Devils. They have a stacked backfield that just keeps pounding the defense.
(6)Oklahoma(-3.5) vs. (21)Texas at Dallas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I nearly turned this game off twice. When it was 14-0 Texas before the first commercial break, I was fully expecting to get stomped by Texas. The defense missed a bunch of tackles on Xavier Worthy on the first play of the game. After another Spencer Rattler interception, I was done. I decided to hang around to see what Caleb Williams was all about. It turns out that he is already a Sooner legend after just one game! Willams is elusive and his passes looked better than Rattler's. More than that, it opened up the offense to lead the largest comeback in series history. Kennedy Brooks even saved my bet after going in for the touchdown with three seconds left while trying to set up for the field goal. This game was everything an Oklahoma fan could ask for. Well, aside from the sketchy tackling that persisted all game.
Maryland at (7)Ohio State(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If only all bets were this easy. The Buckeye nearly won by 5x this line. I underestimated them and said Buckeyes by double. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are going to be a big problem for every team left on the schedule.
(11)Michigan State(-5.5) at Rutgers: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Spartans made me sweat this for a little bit. Oh, and in case you need a refresher on why they call Jalen Nailor "Speedy."
Most receiving yards on deep pass attempts this season ✈️
1. Jalen Nailor, Michigan State (Week 6): 191
2. Jayden Reed, Michigan State (Week 2): 160
3. Jacob Copeland, Florida (Week 2): 152pic.twitter.com/qcF515cGBZ— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 11, 2021
(13)Arkansas at (17)Mississippi(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Arkansas went for two and the win and failed on my straight up prediction, but the bet still hit. This was a crazy game in a weekend full of them. The ballyhooed Arkansas defense gave up 52 points! KJ Jefferson looks like he's going to be a star, doesn't he? Georgia game aside, he has been a force.
Vanderbilt at (20)Florida(-38.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Yes Virginia, Vanderbilt is worse than Kansas.....
South Carolina at Tennessee(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tennessee is going to be a dangerous team down the stretch in the SEC. It took them a couple of games to get their footing under Josh Heupel, but this offense is rounding into a very good unit. Tiyon Evans might be the second-best back in the SEC.
West Virginia at Baylor(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
New bucket list item: Go to a game at McLane Stadium. Those fans in Waco have sure made a difference at times this year. Baylor didn't need the fans in this one. They buried West Virginia from the get-go. Gerry Bohanon to Tyquan Thornton can take the Bears a long ways this year.
Northern Illinois at Toledo(-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Huskies did win this one outright. It was a fun game if you like field goals. I still feel like this wasn't a total loss for Toledo. Dequan Finn looks like the quarterback Toledo needs. Carter Bradley wasn't getting the job done. Finn didn't turn this into a win, but the offense looked better with him in there.
Akron at Bowling Green(-13.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Someone had better check Hell and make sure it's not frozen. I really didn't think Akron would beat a FBS team. Blake Hester looks like the back that the Zips were missing. Their inability to run the ball was a big reason why I didn't think Akron would steal one.
Georgia Tech(-3.5) at Duke: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not all that surprised that Georgia Tech won. This is a good team when Jeff Sims is going well. He was in Durham on Saturday.
Old Dominion at Marshall(-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was an ugly game for the Herd. Blake Watson gashed them for 168 rushing yards and nearly stole a win in Huntington.
Virginia at Louisville(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Brennan Armstrong is putting up numbers that Colt Brennan would be jealous of. He is leading the country with 2,460 passing yards. He nearly threw for 500 again in a game in which Dontavyion Wicks was forced to leave in the first quarter. Next man up! Virginia has some really good receivers on this team.
(2)Georgia(-15.5) at (18)Auburn: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Auburn was looking up to the challenge until Smoke Monday got tossed for targeting. It was the right call, but I think Auburn's defense might have held Georgia enough to give them a chance if Monday were able to play the full game. The Tigers fell apart after that call.
Boise State at (10)BYU(-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Where did this Boise State defense come from? This should have been a feast for Tyler Allgeier. Instead he was held to 73 yards. BYU literally fumbled this game away. Lopini Katoa fumbled twice on just four carries, losing them both.
(19)Wake Forest(-6.5) at Syracuse: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Orange couldn't cover A.T. Perry, but the Wake defense had no answer for Garrett Shrader either. It was a valiant effort for the Orange, but they came up just short. Wake is 6-0 for the first time since 1944.
(24)SMU(-13.5) at Navy: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm glad that SMU sat on it instead of trying to score on the last drive. The Navy defense looked solid for much of this game, but the offense couldn't hold up their end of the bargain in the second half.
Florida Atlantic at UAB(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The UAB offense didn't look that much better, but the defense did.
Middle Tennessee State at Liberty(-19.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Holy Malik Willis! He extended at least a dozen plays in this one, but none was more impressive than this effort, on a two-point conversion no less!
Consider the opponent BUT this is a helluva play by Willis https://t.co/d5pJ7MbjkD
— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) October 9, 2021
Florida State at North Carolina(-17.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was an absolute disaster at home for the Tarheels. Jordan Travis tore them apart. The Tarheels allowed Sam Howell to take a beating for nothing. Ty Chandler seems a bit misused as a blocker for the quarterback.....
Wisconsin(-10.5) at Illinois:MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Chez Mellusi and the Badgers defense dominated this game.
Connecticut(-3.5) at Massachusetts: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
UConn.....UCann go <expletive deleted> yourself. They allowed 17 fourth quarter points to lose by two touchdowns to a terrible UMass team. The Huskies are slumming this week against Yale. This will be their last legitimate shot at a win this year.
Miami(OH) at Eastern Michigan(EVEN): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm glad I got this line at even. It closed at -1.5, and that would have been a loss. This was a spectacular defensive battle, which I wasn't really expecting when I turned this game on.
Ball State at Western Michigan(-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line felt a bit off, but I didn't see the Lettermans winning outright by 25 points either. That's how you bust a spread! Yo'Heinz Tyler is almost as good as his name.
Central Michigan(-5.5) at Ohio: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Even Lew Nichols III and his 186 rushing yards didn't get the cover for me.
San Jose State at Colorado State(-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I predicted a 25-point win for the Rams. It was only 18. Sue me. We still won our bets! Comfortably.
(4)Penn State at (3)Iowa(-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It didn't go under 41 and there's no way Iowa wins this game if Sean Clifford didn't leave with an injury. Penn State was up 17-3 when Clifford departed. Ta'Quan Roberson struggled mightily in relief, completing just seven passes in 21 attempts for a paltry 34 yards.
North Texas at Missouri(-18.5):MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The game was well in hand, but that sad Missouri defense costs me money again. They allowed three fourth quarter touchdowns to the Mean Green.
Oregon State(-3.5) at Washington State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
My gut was right. Jayden de Laura threw for 399 yards and three touchdowns to fuel a second half comeback after the Cougars scored just three points in the entire first half.
East Carolina at Central Florida(-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
ECU didn't win outright, and it wasn't a particularly strong game for Holton Ahlers, but a win is a win.
UTEP(-2.5) at Southern Mississippi: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UTEP just keeps growing running backs down there in El Paso. The latest is Ronald Awatt, who ran for 159 yards in Hattiesburg.
UTSA at Western Kentucky(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I feel dirty for picking against the Roadrunners. This was one of the best games on a weekend full of them. Frank Harris had a game for the ages for UTSA. He threw for 349 yards and five touchdowns and also had a receiving touchdown! Not to be outdone, Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe is showing why he has a NFL future. He threw for 523 yards and five touchdowns of his own. Get this man to Stark-Vegas immediately! I want to see what Zappe can do in a Mike Leach offense!
TCU(-1.5) at Texas Tech:MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If I were Gary Patterson I may never call another pass play. Zach Evans is one of the best backs in the conference. He leaves the game after recovering a fumble on a play in which his helmet was knocked off before he was on the bottom of a pile. Kendre Miller runs for 185 yards and three scores as his replacement. That doesn't even take into account the yards added by quarterback Max Duggan. When it was all said and done, TCU ran for 394 yards in a laugher.
Buffalo at Kent State(-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bulls did a great job getting this back to within ten points. They trailed 31-10 at halftime. A great third quarter had my hopes up before the Buffalo defense allowed two touchdowns by Dante Cephas in the fourth quarter.
Georgia Southern at Troy(-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Eagles needed a furious second half to bust the spread, but I really never felt like they were a threat to walk out of Troy with a win.
South Alabama(-3.5) at Texas State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How bad are these two teams (Texas State's loss to Incarnate Word notwithstanding)? They combined for just 16 points in four overtimes. That's four hours that I'll never get back. This is one game I should have skipped.
Wyoming at Air Force(-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Brad Roberts runs like an armored truck. He may not have the best top end speed, but he will most definitely run you over if you get in his way.
(9)Michigan(-2.5) at Nebraska: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Adrian Martinez had a strong game and really only made one mistake. That one mistake cost Nebraska the game. It isn't just the mistakes anymore. It's when Martinez makes them. A great second half effort by Nebraska was fumbled away as they were going down to take the lead. Once again, the Nebraska defense had a really strong game in a losing effort.
(14)Notre Dame(-1.5) at Virginia Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Apparently Braxton Burmeister can't beat the Irish with one arm tied behind his back. He sure as hell tried though. You have to wonder how this game would have went if not for injuries. What if Burmeister weren't operating with a bum wing for more than half the game? Would the Irish have gone back to Jack Coan of their own volition if not for the injury to Tyler Buchner? I doubt they would have, and I doubt the Irish would have come away with a win.
LSU at (16)Kentucky(-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This Kentucky offense is impressive when they get out of their own way. Honestly, LSU is lucky they stayed as close as they did. The speed of Wan'Dale Robinson opened things up on this offense.
(1)Alabama(-17.5) at Texas A&M: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can you blame me? Alabama hadn't lost in two years and Zach Calzada had struggled as the Aggies starting quarterback. The Texas A&M defense showed up to play. Not many teams have been able to force Alabama into one mistake, let alone two.
Georgia State(-15.5) at Louisiana-Monroe: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Darren Grainger had himself quite a game for the Panthers. He threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. He also led the team in rushing.
Utah at USC(-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not surprised. No team has done less with more than the Trojans. I feel bad for Donte Williams. I don't think the dysfunction on this team is his fault, but he most certainly will be blamed for it.
New Mexico at (25)San Diego State(-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nothing to see here. Just the Aztecs running another team into the turf.
Memphis at Tulsa(-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Seth Henigan is going to break some Memphis records if he sticks around long enough. Too bad he can't play defense as well.
UCLA(-16.5) at Arizona: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a spirited effort by Arizona until Jordan McCloud got hurt. Not that Gunnar Cruz is a bad quarterback. The Wildcats lost their heart when McCloud got hurt and it showed.
New Mexico State at Nevada(-30.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I wrote this one off when the Wolfpack were up 52-7. Thankfully the defense got bored and the Aggies scored a touchdown with ten seconds left to bust this spread.
College Football Betting Season Results:
I did much better with my high bets this week, but the lower ones suffered. I did manage to finish the week with a winning record, but just barely. I went 26-25 to put me at 153-164 on the season. It's not a horrible mark, but it's definitely a disappointment after a strong start. Conference play didn't help as much as I had hoped, but at least I gained points this week. That's what really matters.
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 6-5 (26-30) = -4
2. 6-12 (59-67) = -16
3. 9-6 (50-35) = 45
4. 2-1 (9-22) = -52
5. 3-1 (9-10) = -5
I bombed the two pointers, so I only ended up gaining 12 points on the week. I'll take it after three consecutive losing weeks. I have lost 32 points on the season though and I'm now four points in the red over four and a half seasons. We have another smaller week with 53 games this weekend, but UConn is slumming with Yale. I have 46 more picks to make for Saturday, so stay tuned!
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