RADIO
Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.
This series carries over from last week, where I dived into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value. After much research, I've developed a broad knowledge of how each team's play-caller historically operates and compiled data to help make informed decisions throughout the regular season as well.
After a crazy Week 2 where we saw performances of Browns running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt running wild and taking 32 carries for 210 rushing yards, the Cowboys wide receivers getting 292 receiving yards, and the Chargers running backs getting 39 carries, it's important to look at their play-caller's history and see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.
This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!
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Improvement Ahead
These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.
San Francisco 49ers Wide Receivers
Against the New York Jets, the 49ers' wide receivers had eight receptions on 11 targets for 98 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. On the year, the wide receiver room has totaled 12 receptions on 21 targets for 139 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. On a per-game basis, this is just six receptions, 10.5 targets, 69.5 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns for the whole wide receiver room.
| Targets | Receiving Yards |
Receiving Touchdowns
|
|
| 49ers 2020 WR Room (2 games) | 10.5 | 69.5 | 0 |
| Prior Kyle Shanahan WR Room (192 games) | 19.94 | 162.49 | 0.9 |
Looking at 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan's utilization of his wide receivers in the 192 games he was an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season, we see on average he gave his wide receiver room 19.94 targets per game and they produced 162.49 receiving yards and 0.90 receiving touchdowns per game. Based on this, we should expect a bounce-back from the 49ers receivers, especially once Deebo Samuel gets healthy.
Fantasy players this impacts: Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Taylor
Minnesota Vikings Wide Receivers
Last week, the Minnesota Vikings got destroyed by the Indianapolis Colts, and the offense could just never get going. The Vikings' wide receiver room finished the day with seven receptions on 14 targets for 99 receiving yards and no touchdowns. This means that on the year, the group has 18 receptions on 29 targets for 291 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and has been averaging nine receptions, 14.5 targets, 145.5 receiving yards, and one touchdown per game.
| Targets | Receiving Yards |
Receiving Touchdowns
|
|
| Vikings 2020 WR Room (2 games) | 14.5 | 145.5 | 1 |
| Prior Gary Kubiak WR Room (349 games) | 18.46 | 150.21 | 0.86 |
Gary Kubiak had been an offensive coordinator or head coach for 349 games prior to this season. Over the course of those 349 games, his wide receiver room averaged 18.46 targets, 150.21 receiving yards, and 0.86 receiving touchdowns per game. Based on this, we should expect a bounce-back from Sunday's performance against the Indianapolis Colts from this group. But for the overall season, there doesn't appear to be too much of a discrepancy, outside of maybe targets.
Fantasy players this impacts: Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Bisi Johnson
Minnesota Vikings Running Backs
The Vikings' wide receivers weren't the only ones to have a bad day. The Minnesota Vikings' running backs totaled 17 carries for 76 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. In addition, they caught three passes on four targets for 11 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. This means that on the year, the running back room has 35 carries, 176 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, eight receptions (on 10 targets), 39 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. On a per-game basis, this is 17.5 carries, 88 rushing yards, 1.5 rushing touchdowns, four receptions (on five targets), 19.5 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns.
| Carries | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | Targets | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs | |
| Vikings 2020 RB Room (2 games) | 17.5 | 88 | 1.5 | 5 | 19.5 | 0 |
| Prior Gary Kubiak RB Room (349 games) | 25.27 | 113.12 | 0.86 | 4.92 | 27.83 | 0.1 |
This doesn't quite line up with Gary Kubiak's history utilizing the position. In Kubiak's 349 games as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to this season, his running back room averaged 25.27 carries, 113.12 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 4.92 targets, 27.83 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game. Based on this, we can expect more usage than the position group got last Sunday. Additionally, based on the season's production so far versus Gary Kubiak's historical production at the position, we can expect an uptick in usage and yardage.
Fantasy players this impacts: Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison
New York Giants Running Backs (Run Game)
Against the Chicago Bears last Sunday, the New York Giants took 14 carries for 48 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown. On the season, the team's running backs have put up a putrid 30 carries for 55 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.
| Carries | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs | |
| Giants 2020 RB Room (2 games) | 15 | 27.5 | 0.5 |
| Prior Jason Garrett RB Room (208 games) | 23.63 | 106.15 | 0.69 |
Looking at offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and his past offenses, it makes it obvious that there is nowhere to go but up from here (unless this is one of the worst running offenses in NFL history). Prior to this season over the course of 208 games, Jason Garrett's running back room averaged 23.63 carries, 106.15 rushing yards, and 0.69 rushing touchdowns per game. While this rushing attack will likely be one of the worst of Garrett's career with Saquon Barkley out for the year, expect some improvement for these running backs on the ground.
Fantasy players this impacts: Devonta Freeman, Dion Lewis, and Wayne Gallman
Chicago Bears Wide Receivers
The Chicago Bears' passing game was subpar last Sunday against the New York Giants, with Mitchell Trubisky only throwing for 190 yards. The wide receivers, in particular, had a rough game catching ten passes on 19 targets for 94 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown.
Now, compare this to Matt Nagy's history of utilizing the position. Prior to this season, Matt Nagy's wide receiver room averaged 18.35 targets, 145.25 receiving yards, and 0.85 receiving touchdowns in his three seasons as an offensive coordinator or head coach in the NFL.
| Targets | Receiving Yards |
Receiving Touchdowns
|
|
| Bears 2020 WR Room (2 games) | 20 | 147.5 | 1.5 |
| Prior Matt Nagy WR Room (48 games) | 18.35 | 145.25 | 0.85 |
On the season, the wide receiver room has caught 24 passes on 40 targets for 295 receiving yards and scored three receiving touchdowns. On a per-game basis, that's 12 receptions, 20 targets, 147.5 receiving yards, and 1.5 receiving touchdowns. This is more in line with the production and opportunity that Matt Nagy has traditionally provided the position. Expect improvement from the Bears' wide receiver room in comparison to Sunday's game, but overall, the season totals seem pretty accurate with what we'd expect from a Matt Nagy offense.
Fantasy players this impacts: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, and Cordarelle Patterson
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