X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Matt Adams and Freddy Peralta

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of 1B/OF Matt Adams and SP Fereddy Peralta to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

By now, you've probably heard that the United States Supreme Court has opened the door to legalized sports betting outside of the state of Nevada. The issue has several complicated angles to consider, but I've long felt that fantasy owners should have a familiarity with how betting on baseball works. Each game's over/under numbers and starting pitchers are often displayed on sports betting sites, making it an easy way to follow the league as a whole.

Note that I am not advocating losing your house in a casino. Many sites offer free-to-play games that track your profits or losses with "units," calculated using comparable moneylines to those in actual sportsbooks. This lets you get a feel for how it all works without compromising your finances.

If you prefer to roll the dice on waiver wire pickups for your fantasy team(s), that's fine too. Matt Adams is probably over-owned relative to his projections moving forward, while Freddy Peralta could be the ultimate lottery ticket. Let's take a closer look.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Matt Adams (1B/OF, WAS) - 74% Owned

Adams has been rock solid thus far this season, slashing .268/.383/.629 with 10 HR over 115 PAs. His high ownership rate is probably a function of his power and low .250 BABIP, enticing owners with the prospect of a power-hitting batting average stud. It's incredibly unlikely to happen.

Let's begin with a closer look at that .250 BABIP. Adams is a fly ball guy (40.5% FB% this year) and always has been (41.4% career), making his .314 career BABIP difficult to expect. His 27% LD% is nearly certain to regress toward his 21.2% career mark, mitigating the impact of any favorable regression in his BABIPs on fly balls (.095 vs. .150 career) or line drives (.632 vs. .718 career).

The most troubling aspect of his BABIP is an extreme pull tendency. Adams hasn't pulled a ton of his ground balls historically (55.5% career), but that number is up to 70.8% this year. Opposing teams have noticed, shifting him in all but three opportunities this year. His current ground ball BABIP of .083 is considerably lower than his career mark (.239), but he wasn't always as vulnerable to the shift as he looks now. He lacks foot speed (26 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed this year and last), limiting the expected value of his ground balls further. Expecting regression to his career mark is a fool's errand.

Adams's plate discipline is also likely to hurt him moving forward. His 13.9% BB% is rooted in a dramatically improved eye (31.4% chase rate vs. 40.7% last year, 38% for his career), but it's still a shade worse than league average. As pitchers learn that Adams isn't chasing everything anymore, they are likely to start throwing him more strikes (35.8% Zone% is fourth lowest in MLB, minimum 50 PAs).

His 20% K% could also be due for a slight increase. His SwStr% (12.1%) is better than it was last year (14.8%), but still a little bit higher than the league's average. Seeing more strikes could erode his plate discipline gains as well, making a K% around 23% likely moving forward.

Adams's current power pace doesn't look sustainable either, but he made some gains. He is scorching the ball (97.6 mph average airborne exit velocity, 14.9% rate of Brls/BBE), easily outproducing last year's numbers (94.3 mph, 10.6%). His pull-centric approach has affected his flies as well (40% Pull% vs. 28.4% career), helping his raw power deposit baseballs over the fence. His 33.3% HR/FB is obviously headed south, but this new approach should produce a rate considerably higher than his career mark of 14.9%.

Overall, Adams is a .250ish hitter with 25 homer power. That's not terrible, but it's a profile that's relatively easy to find on most waiver wires. He's currently hitting cleanup every day, but playing time is not assured once the Nats get healthy, let alone a premium lineup spot. He's a fine stop gap, but not a long term answer.

Verdict: Chump

 

Freddy Peralta (SP, MIL) - 18% Owned

Peralta excited the entire fantasy community in his MLB debut: 5 2/3 IP, 13 K, 2 BB, H, and zero runs at Coors Field. Results that good are virtually unheard of at altitude, and Peralta really only threw fastballs (90.8% thrown) to achieve them. Is he actually this good?

An examination of his minor league career suggests that he might be. Peralta made it to Double-A for the first time last season, tossing 63 2/3 IP for Biloxi. He acquainted himself well, posting a 2.26 ERA and 2.70 xFIP with a 34.6% K%. His 11.8% BB% was a little higher than fantasy owners would like, but he gets enough Ks that we'll live with it.

Biloxi's ballpark allows a ton of homers, posting a ballpark factor of 1.200 in 2016. It didn't bother Peralta though, as he had a 3.8% HR/FB for his stay there. Three-year ballpark factors are more reliable than their one-year counterparts, but Biloxi's park opened midway through the 2015 season. The 2016 total is the best available data.

The performance inspired the Brewers to start Peralta at Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. He threw 32 2/3 IP before his MLB debut, posting a solid 3.63 ERA and 4.16 xFIP. He again struck out a bunch (31.1% K%) while walking too many (11.5% BB%). If the ERA number troubles you, you're probably not familiar with Colorado Springs.

Colorado Springs plays its home games 6,531 feet above sea level, roughly 1,000 feet higher than Coors Field. They use a humidor to keep the park somewhat honest, but the wind frequently gusts between 12 and 15 mph directly toward home plate. Beating a consistent wind that strong is incredibly challenging, making the park suppress HR (0.970 park factor) despite its elevation.

That does not mean it's a pitcher's park. Like Coors, they built a massive park to try to limit the impacts of altitude. The power alleys are both 350 ft. from home plate, while dead center is 410. That provides a lot of room for batted balls to become hits, giving the park a three-year ballpark factor for hits of 1.283. To put that into perspective, 28.3% more hits fall in at Colorado Springs than an average Triple-A park. This makes Colorado Springs the most hitter-friendly environment (1.430 factor for runs scored) in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Honestly, a 3.63 ERA there is probably better than a 2.26 ERA at Biloxi. Peralta mitigated the park effects with a high GB% (53.6%) and low HR/FB (2.7%), both skills that would be handy at Milwaukee's Miller Park. Combined with his minor league strikeout totals, Peralta seems to have earned a crack at big league hitters.

Succeeding in the major leagues with only a fastball will be tough, but Peralta might be up to the task. Its average velocity in Denver wasn't that impressive (92.6 mph), but he varied speeds on it a lot. His slowest fastball was clocked at 86.9 mph, while his fastest touched 95. The differential is significant enough to effectively be different pitches, helping Peralta keep opposing hitters off balance. Peralta also has a deceptive delivery that prevents hitters from timing his heater well.

Peralta is a spin rate guy, averaging 2,451 RPM on his heater in his MLB debut. That ranks 55th in MLB this season, but 30 of the guys ahead of him have thrown fewer fastballs than he did in one start. If you eliminate their small samples, Peralta's spin starts to look elite. High-spin fastballs generate Ks while limiting airborne contact quality, both traits that define Peralta's performance on the farm.

Trusting a major league hurler with one pitch is a scary proposition, but scouting reports suggest that he has a strong curve and mediocre change as well. Altitude wreaks havoc on breaking pitches, and its possible Milwaukee told Peralta to limit his curve usage at higher elevations. If he throws more curves on Saturday against the Twins, he'll have an effective three pitch mix if you count the heat as two.

Peralta's career high in IP is only 120 between two levels last year, so some type of innings limit is likely. The Brewers are a contending club with few sure things in the rotation though, so the team may be incentivized to push him.

There is definitely risk here, but Peralta looks worth owning in fantasy. He's not popular just yet, but any success in his second start will send owners racing to the waiver wire to add him after his debut. If you want him, you probably can't afford to wait for a larger sample size.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Yordan Alvarez

Resumes Swinging -- Return Imminent?
Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF