X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Matt Adams and Freddy Peralta

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy prospects of 1B/OF Matt Adams and SP Fereddy Peralta to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

By now, you've probably heard that the United States Supreme Court has opened the door to legalized sports betting outside of the state of Nevada. The issue has several complicated angles to consider, but I've long felt that fantasy owners should have a familiarity with how betting on baseball works. Each game's over/under numbers and starting pitchers are often displayed on sports betting sites, making it an easy way to follow the league as a whole.

Note that I am not advocating losing your house in a casino. Many sites offer free-to-play games that track your profits or losses with "units," calculated using comparable moneylines to those in actual sportsbooks. This lets you get a feel for how it all works without compromising your finances.

If you prefer to roll the dice on waiver wire pickups for your fantasy team(s), that's fine too. Matt Adams is probably over-owned relative to his projections moving forward, while Freddy Peralta could be the ultimate lottery ticket. Let's take a closer look.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Matt Adams (1B/OF, WAS) - 74% Owned

Adams has been rock solid thus far this season, slashing .268/.383/.629 with 10 HR over 115 PAs. His high ownership rate is probably a function of his power and low .250 BABIP, enticing owners with the prospect of a power-hitting batting average stud. It's incredibly unlikely to happen.

Let's begin with a closer look at that .250 BABIP. Adams is a fly ball guy (40.5% FB% this year) and always has been (41.4% career), making his .314 career BABIP difficult to expect. His 27% LD% is nearly certain to regress toward his 21.2% career mark, mitigating the impact of any favorable regression in his BABIPs on fly balls (.095 vs. .150 career) or line drives (.632 vs. .718 career).

The most troubling aspect of his BABIP is an extreme pull tendency. Adams hasn't pulled a ton of his ground balls historically (55.5% career), but that number is up to 70.8% this year. Opposing teams have noticed, shifting him in all but three opportunities this year. His current ground ball BABIP of .083 is considerably lower than his career mark (.239), but he wasn't always as vulnerable to the shift as he looks now. He lacks foot speed (26 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed this year and last), limiting the expected value of his ground balls further. Expecting regression to his career mark is a fool's errand.

Adams's plate discipline is also likely to hurt him moving forward. His 13.9% BB% is rooted in a dramatically improved eye (31.4% chase rate vs. 40.7% last year, 38% for his career), but it's still a shade worse than league average. As pitchers learn that Adams isn't chasing everything anymore, they are likely to start throwing him more strikes (35.8% Zone% is fourth lowest in MLB, minimum 50 PAs).

His 20% K% could also be due for a slight increase. His SwStr% (12.1%) is better than it was last year (14.8%), but still a little bit higher than the league's average. Seeing more strikes could erode his plate discipline gains as well, making a K% around 23% likely moving forward.

Adams's current power pace doesn't look sustainable either, but he made some gains. He is scorching the ball (97.6 mph average airborne exit velocity, 14.9% rate of Brls/BBE), easily outproducing last year's numbers (94.3 mph, 10.6%). His pull-centric approach has affected his flies as well (40% Pull% vs. 28.4% career), helping his raw power deposit baseballs over the fence. His 33.3% HR/FB is obviously headed south, but this new approach should produce a rate considerably higher than his career mark of 14.9%.

Overall, Adams is a .250ish hitter with 25 homer power. That's not terrible, but it's a profile that's relatively easy to find on most waiver wires. He's currently hitting cleanup every day, but playing time is not assured once the Nats get healthy, let alone a premium lineup spot. He's a fine stop gap, but not a long term answer.

Verdict: Chump

 

Freddy Peralta (SP, MIL) - 18% Owned

Peralta excited the entire fantasy community in his MLB debut: 5 2/3 IP, 13 K, 2 BB, H, and zero runs at Coors Field. Results that good are virtually unheard of at altitude, and Peralta really only threw fastballs (90.8% thrown) to achieve them. Is he actually this good?

An examination of his minor league career suggests that he might be. Peralta made it to Double-A for the first time last season, tossing 63 2/3 IP for Biloxi. He acquainted himself well, posting a 2.26 ERA and 2.70 xFIP with a 34.6% K%. His 11.8% BB% was a little higher than fantasy owners would like, but he gets enough Ks that we'll live with it.

Biloxi's ballpark allows a ton of homers, posting a ballpark factor of 1.200 in 2016. It didn't bother Peralta though, as he had a 3.8% HR/FB for his stay there. Three-year ballpark factors are more reliable than their one-year counterparts, but Biloxi's park opened midway through the 2015 season. The 2016 total is the best available data.

The performance inspired the Brewers to start Peralta at Triple-A Colorado Springs this season. He threw 32 2/3 IP before his MLB debut, posting a solid 3.63 ERA and 4.16 xFIP. He again struck out a bunch (31.1% K%) while walking too many (11.5% BB%). If the ERA number troubles you, you're probably not familiar with Colorado Springs.

Colorado Springs plays its home games 6,531 feet above sea level, roughly 1,000 feet higher than Coors Field. They use a humidor to keep the park somewhat honest, but the wind frequently gusts between 12 and 15 mph directly toward home plate. Beating a consistent wind that strong is incredibly challenging, making the park suppress HR (0.970 park factor) despite its elevation.

That does not mean it's a pitcher's park. Like Coors, they built a massive park to try to limit the impacts of altitude. The power alleys are both 350 ft. from home plate, while dead center is 410. That provides a lot of room for batted balls to become hits, giving the park a three-year ballpark factor for hits of 1.283. To put that into perspective, 28.3% more hits fall in at Colorado Springs than an average Triple-A park. This makes Colorado Springs the most hitter-friendly environment (1.430 factor for runs scored) in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

Honestly, a 3.63 ERA there is probably better than a 2.26 ERA at Biloxi. Peralta mitigated the park effects with a high GB% (53.6%) and low HR/FB (2.7%), both skills that would be handy at Milwaukee's Miller Park. Combined with his minor league strikeout totals, Peralta seems to have earned a crack at big league hitters.

Succeeding in the major leagues with only a fastball will be tough, but Peralta might be up to the task. Its average velocity in Denver wasn't that impressive (92.6 mph), but he varied speeds on it a lot. His slowest fastball was clocked at 86.9 mph, while his fastest touched 95. The differential is significant enough to effectively be different pitches, helping Peralta keep opposing hitters off balance. Peralta also has a deceptive delivery that prevents hitters from timing his heater well.

Peralta is a spin rate guy, averaging 2,451 RPM on his heater in his MLB debut. That ranks 55th in MLB this season, but 30 of the guys ahead of him have thrown fewer fastballs than he did in one start. If you eliminate their small samples, Peralta's spin starts to look elite. High-spin fastballs generate Ks while limiting airborne contact quality, both traits that define Peralta's performance on the farm.

Trusting a major league hurler with one pitch is a scary proposition, but scouting reports suggest that he has a strong curve and mediocre change as well. Altitude wreaks havoc on breaking pitches, and its possible Milwaukee told Peralta to limit his curve usage at higher elevations. If he throws more curves on Saturday against the Twins, he'll have an effective three pitch mix if you count the heat as two.

Peralta's career high in IP is only 120 between two levels last year, so some type of innings limit is likely. The Brewers are a contending club with few sure things in the rotation though, so the team may be incentivized to push him.

There is definitely risk here, but Peralta looks worth owning in fantasy. He's not popular just yet, but any success in his second start will send owners racing to the waiver wire to add him after his debut. If you want him, you probably can't afford to wait for a larger sample size.

Verdict: Champ

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Remains an Overrated Road Racer
Brad Keselowski

Likely to Brush Past Chicago Street Course to Focus on Daytona
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek One of the Best Underdog Options After Strong Runs at Mexico City and Last Year
Cole Custer

Strong Mexico City Run and Xfinity Series Chicago Win Make Him a Solid DFS Option
Erik Jones

Likely Not Good Enough on Road Courses for DFS Consideration Despite Poor Qualifying Result
Noah Gragson

May Be Better Than Other Cheap DFS Options
Riley Herbst

Despite Decent Mexico City Run, Don't Expect Riley Herbst to Contend at Chicago
Cody Ware

Is a Road Course Veteran, but It's Rarely Helped Him in NASCAR
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Is The Heavy Favorite to Win at Chicago Street Course
Christopher Bell

Should Be Strong Despite Practice Struggles at Chicago Street Course
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade may not Happen Until "August, September"
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Houston Rockets

Jock Landale Waived by Rockets
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Jonas Valančiūnas

Jonas Valanciunas Considering Returning to Europe
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Jabari Walker

Signs Two-Way Deal With Sixers
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Byron Young

Still Improving?
Cody Simon

Jonathan Gannon has Been Impressed With Cody Simon
SirVocea Dennis

has Impressive Offseason
Trevor Penning

Could Still Have a Role in New Orleans
Jonathan Kuminga

Warriors Decline Recent Offer for Jonathan Kuminga
Orlando Magic

Moritz Wagner, Magic Agree to One-Year Deal
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
José Soriano

Jose Soriano Throws Gem Against Braves
Robbie Ray

Earns Ninth Win in Complete Game
T.J. Watt

Likely to Reset the Edge-Rush Market
George Springer

Blasts Two Homers, Drives in Four
James Wood

Goes Yard in Five-Hit Night
Bradley Beal

Suns Discussing Potential Buyout
Los Angeles Lakers

Jaxson Hayes Staying with the Lakers
NBA

Damian Lillard "Open" to Signing With a Team This Offseason
Max Muncy

Out at Least Six Weeks
Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Sandro Mamukelashvili

Heading to Toronto
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF