The Cut List (Week 5): Time to Let Go?

Welcome to Week 5 of the Cut List. I think my suggestions have been pretty solid to start the year and I hope your teams are better off as a result. 2018 sample sizes are starting to legitimize and you’ll see more cut-worthy standard league-viable options on these lists as we get further into the […]

Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 5

Stop the presses - Ronald Acuna has arrived! The presses have actually been kicking into overdrive since he amazed the baseball world with a wicked single and a couple of really, really long fly ball outs in his Major League debut. Oh, he hit a mammoth home run in his second game too. Like any […]

Alex Bregman - Will He Deliver on His Potential?

Since being drafted second overall in the 2015 June Amateur Draft, much has been expected of Houston third baseman Alex Bregman. Shooting through the minors in only a year and change, Bregman made an instant impact with a 1.1 WAR in 49 games in 2016. It appeared that the Astros had their corner of the […]

Flopping Aces - Finding Value in Slow-Starting Pitching Performances

Growing up, the baseball mantra from my father was “wait until 40 games and then you can know how a team will play.”  Perhaps this was just a way for a Cleveland fan growing up in the 80s to keep hope, or maybe there is some truth to that saying.   Small sample sizes do […]

Champ or Chump: Franchy Cordero and Walker Buehler

The arbitrary service time manipulations have come to an end, providing fantasy owners with plenty of highly regarded prospects to choose from on the waiver wire. The biggest name to get the call is undoubtedly Ronald Acuna Jr., but buyer beware. I wrote him up here, concluding that he's too raw to help fantasy owners […]

Buy or Sell - Surprising Pitchers Off to Hot Starts in 2018

The beginning of the season is one of the toughest times of the year for fantasy baseball managers. Reading into small sample sizes is a tough task, as it can set you up for success the rest of the year if you make a smart waiver wire or set you back by giving up on […]

Champ or Chump: Dansby Swanson and Kurt Suzuki

Baseball Savant has added an "Expected Stats" tab to its Statcast Leaderboard, making it easier than ever before to look up a given player's xBA (Expected Batting Average), xSLG (Expected Slugging Percentage), and xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average). These metrics use launch angle and exit velocity to predict how a given player should be doing […]

The Cut List (Week 4): Time to Let Go?

Welcome to the fourth edition of the Cut List! I hope my suggestions have helped everyone sort their rosters out over the past few weeks. We’re slowly reaching that point where we can start trusting sample sizes, but we’re not quite there yet. My goal with this weekly column is simple: I want to provide […]

How Superior Setup Men Provide Value to Closers - AL Focus

The goal of the previous column in this series was to propose that the home runs allowed by relief pitchers have a significant impact on fantasy teams, even when those pitchers do not make the roster. While a baseball truism on some levels, home runs given up late in games tend to diminish the number […]

Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 4

Is it time to overreact yet? This is what many fantasy owners are asking themselves and our writers at RotoBaller, but it's not the question you should be asking. It may be the early portion of a long season, but clearly some trends are forming. The question is: how much longer are you going to […]

Champ or Chump - Nick Pivetta and Joey Lucchesi

Personally, I've always been a little leery of pitching breakouts at first. If an offensive acquisition goes sideways, they can't do any worse than zeroes in HR, RBI, runs scored, and stolen bases. By contrast, pitchers can provide negative value in ERA and WHIP to accompany zeroes in W, S, and Ks. If your league […]

The Cut List (Week 3): Time to Let Go?

Well, we’re three weeks into the season and the picture is starting to clear up. Players who started off the year cold are heating up (Andrew Benintendi, Mike Moustakas, Steve Pearce) while guys like Josh Harrison and Nick Ahmed are slowly regressing to the mean. We can start confidently making add/drop decisions, but don’t expect […]

Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 3

If your fantasy baseball team looks anything like most of mine, then you've got a couple of injured players occupying bench spots because your DL positions are already full. That didn't take long did it? The 10-day DL has been both a blessing and a curse for the fantasy world. On the one hand, it […]

Champ or Chump - Jose Martinez and Matt Chapman

Playing the wire is often the primary fantasy baseball activity in April, as you quickly try to sort through your draft day bargains and the guys you no longer require. Your first waiver claims should be treated in the same manner. Some of them will contribute to your roster all season long, while others are […]

How Superior Setup Men Provide Value to Closers - NL Focus

The era of the home run has been a bit of a double-edged sword for fantasy owners. On the one hand, the bench bat drafted in the 27th round can emerge as a 20+ HR hitter, adding value from an unexpected source. On the other side, pitcher ERAs are up, and the value of the […]

Champ or Chump - Jakob Junis and Scott Kingery

The beauty of an analytical approach to the game is that it's constantly evolving. When I first started writing this column, I avoided minor leaguers completely because there was no worthwhile data. Metrics like BABIP and FIP became available, allowing me to take a cursory look at a few. Last year, batted ball distribution made […]

Champ or Chump - Christian Villanueva and Matt Davidson

A slow week might not even get noticed in August, but right now it is all of the data you have to work with. That forces you into a balancing act, as you need to determine if a hot guy on waivers is worth giving up somebody you believed in on draft day. As always, […]

The Cut List (Week 2): Time to Let Go?

You shouldn’t hesitate to drop the players I highlight below in standard 10 or 12 team leagues. Like I said last week, you shouldn’t hesitate dropping any of these guys for a player on a hot streak. There’s a strong chance all three of these players will continue to struggle for weeks. You can play […]

Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 2

The first week of the season is officially over, so it's time to start trading assets! That actually may not be the best idea since we've yet to get a firm grasp on trends or values, although the start of the season could be the best time to acquire assets cheaply in some cases. Cutting […]

Hot Starts to Watch from Traditionally Slow Starters

If the Major League season were to end today, two of the favorites for the World Series (Cleveland and Los Angeles) would not be making the playoffs, and Pittsburgh would be a top seed. Not that we can put much stock into six games, they still serve as the beginning of some insight into the […]

Champ or Chump - Derek Dietrich and Josh Harrison

One of the biggest differences between daily and weekly fantasy formats is that sinking feeling you get when one of your studs has a day off. It happens to everyone in weekly formats, but your rivals are getting a game advantage over you in daily settings. You can't carry a backup on your bench for […]

The Cut List (Week 1) - Time to Let Go?

I want to make this clear: you should be hesitant to cut any players you drafted at this point. I’m writing this on March 31st. You won’t see a ton of players on this list because it’s so damn early. The players on this list are guys you should strongly consider dropping soon. If you […]

Champ or Chump - Sean Newcomb and Sean Manaea

Baseball games that count are once again upon us! Now that baseball is back and you're looking over your fantasy squads, you're probably a little light on pitching. If your format has an innings cap, it'll probably be harder to reach than you realize. If it doesn't, volume becomes the best way to accumulate more […]

Champ or Chump - Luis Castillo and Miguel Sano

Most fantasy owners have already drafted their squads by this point in March, but there are a handful of leagues that wait until after the season has started to populate their rosters. It seems bizarre, but we're not judging. This column will continue with its current format (citing ADP data) until a few weeks into […]

Starting Pitchers Who Aren’t Improving in 2018

Opening Day is almost here and time is short, so let's cut to the chase. If you want to find great starting pitcher value in your draft, avoid these players. Cole Hamels and Felix Hernandez are aging arms heading into the final stages of their careers, and Jake Odorizzi’s arrow is pointing straight down. I […]

Champ or Chump - Trevor Story and Mookie Betts

"Sometimes, a little bit of knowledge is worse than having none at all." Most fantasy owners are now savvy enough to perform basic BABIP regressions, but blindly regressing everything to the league average or even a given player's career work is a great way to set yourself up for disappointment. For example, Trevor Story is […]

Outfield Busts Who Won’t Improve in 2018

The list of outfielders who will bust again in 2018 is rather short. Most of the players who fell short of expectations last year are poised for a bounce back season. You can see it in their profiles. It’s a whole different story for these four guys, however. Their fantasy values are almost non-existent, but […]

Bust Candidates for 2018 Fantasy Baseball: First Base

When drafting first basemen to your fantasy baseball team, you typically find power hitters who can contribute to your squad. Drafting the wrong players could set your team back in the HR, RBI, or even the wOBA category. That's why we're here, to prevent such a catastrophe from happening. Before you add these sluggers to […]

ADP Sleepers and Busts: First Basemen

This is the time of year when most average draft positions are generally appropriate and reasonable. We’re quickly approaching Opening Day and most players are sitting right where they should be, but there are a few value opportunities that look too good to pass up. At the same time, however, a few guys are still […]

Champ or Chump - Manny Margot and Justin Verlander

A player's ADP often has little to do with how good he is and everything to do with how good other people think he is. In an age when young studs are favored over more established veterans, Manny Margot has still escaped notice by playing his home games in San Diego. Likewise, the narrative that […]