Bust Candidates for 2018 Fantasy Baseball: First Base

When drafting first basemen to your fantasy baseball team, you typically find power hitters who can contribute to your squad.

Drafting the wrong players could set your team back in the HR, RBI, or even the wOBA category. That's why we're here, to prevent such a catastrophe from happening.

Before you add these sluggers to your club, take heed as we predict four hitters who could underperform in 2018.

First Base Bust Candidates

Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks

Placing Goldschmidt in a “bust” piece will ruffle some feathers, especially in the Arizona fanbase. However, in my book, someone who doesn’t live up to their draft potential is considered a “bust.” Currently, Goldy is going fifth overall in NFBC drafts. What’s the problem with the fantasy first round draft pick? One word: humidor.

In an article posted on Fangraphs, author Alan Nathan projected that home runs would be reduced by 25-50 percent at Chase Field. That is significant. Over the past three years, Goldschmidt hit 48 of his 93 home runs at Chase Field. That’s approximately 52 percent. Since he averaged 31 HR in the past three seasons, that would equate to 16.12 Goldschmidt home runs. Going back to Nathan’s prediction, that would eliminate a minimum of four home runs (4.03) from Goldschmidt’s total, at 25 percent, with a maximum of eight (8.06) homers.

Also, Goldschmidt averages 108.3 RBI over the past three seasons. Applying the reduction to Goldy’s averages, we could assume he’d produce somewhere between 23-27 HR and 100-104 RBI (assuming all home runs lost are just solo shots). The 27 HR (high-end) would place Goldschmidt 14th among first basemen. Not top-five worthy.

Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

Do you remember where Bellinger went in NFBC drafts last season? He was the 99th outfielder and had and average draft position of 436th overall. Now? He’s the fifth first baseman off the board and has an ADP of 25th overall.

Don’t get me wrong, the 39 HR, 97 RBI, 10 SB season was phenomenal. However, do you really expect Bellinger to replicate, or even come close, to those numbers?

Unfortunately, this breakdown isn’t as in-depth or complex as the Goldschmidt write-up. This is just a wet blanket on the excitement for the young talent. Plus, his 26.6 strikeout percentage was sixth-most among first basemen.

Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres

Hosmer’s stats have remained constant over the past two seasons. He hit 25 homers in each of the past two campaigns and produced an average of 99 RBI. That finish placed Hosmer 17th (2017) and 14th (2016) among fellow first basemen in the home run totals. Heading to Petco Park will certainly not help those numbers increase.

Digging into the metrics, Hosmer’s BABIP was second-highest compared to other first basemen. That’s not necessarily a good thing. BABIP is often referred to as the “luck” stat. Typically, you can attribute a high BABIP to speedsters, but that isn’t the case for Hosmer (hasn’t stolen more than seven bases in a season since 2013). Beware, a dip is on the horizon for The Hoz.

Then, there's the park factor. While, Hosmer isn't coming from the best of ballparks (Kauffman Stadium) for hitters, his new home field is less-friendly (Petco Park) to hitters. Last season, Hosmer played in all 162 games, and hit 16 of his 25 home runs at home (64 percent).

Currently, Hosmer is going 11th among first basemen (80th overall) in NFBC leagues.

Carlos Santana, Philadelphia Phillies

This player finds his way on the list because of the disparity between the NFBC average draft position and the ESPN ADP. In NFBC leagues, Santana is the 21st first baseman off the draft board (172nd overall). However, Mr. Santana is the 11th first baseman selected (103rd overall) in ESPN leagues.

Santana is moving from an A.L. roster to an N.L. lineup in 2018. While he played a career-high 139 games at first base in 2017, he still had the luxury to DH. In 2016, Santana played the DH role 92 times for Cleveland.

Then, there's the supporting cast. Santana was a member of a Cleveland club that won 196 regular season games in two years. The Indians produced 1,595 runs in that span. As for the Phillies, they won 137 games (66 wins in 2017) and scored 1,300 runs during that same two-year window (610 runs in 2016 was league-worst).

Translation: there will be more pressure on Santana to carry the offense. Granted, you could make the argument that there is less pressure on Santana to win when playing for a franchise with low expectations. However, after spending $60 million on Santana for the next three seasons, he will still need to perform at a level worth his contract.

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