Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Sleepers and Breakouts: Vacated Air Yards and Targets (2025)

August 29, 2025

Thunder Dan Palyo outlines which fantasy football wide receivers have huge opportunities in 2025 based on the amount of vacated air yards and targets on their teams. Draft these WRs knowing they will outperform their ADP.

We are all hunting for breakouts every season. Which players can outperform their previous seasons and produce value at their ADP as a result?

It's easier said than done. For every player who does "break out" in 2025, another player will fail to meet expectations. We simply want to hit on more of these players than we miss, giving our fantasy teams the best chance at being competitive.

In this article, I’ll try ot make the case for some wide receivers who I think have breakout seasons coming in 2025 due to the increased opportunities that they should see in their respective offenses this season.

Vacated Air Yards and Targets Equal Opportunity

What we're looking for here are teams that lost some of their top pass-catchers and downfield targets in the offseason. Air Yards refers to all the yardage from the line of scrimmage to the intended receiver on every passing attempt. Looking at air yards for an individual player helps us understand how they are deployed within their offense. Someone like Alec Pierce (21.5 air yards per target) was targeted almost exclusively on downfield passes, while a player like Curtis Samuel (4.5 air yards per target) saw most of his targets on short throws.

So, looking at the vacated air yards and targets for entire teams (and comparing them) gives us a sense of what types of targets and routes may be available for the receivers on those teams this year. We can even look at how many red zone targets were vacated on each team to try and find some touchdown upside for receivers, too.

Percentage of Vacated Air Yards: Top Five

Percentage of Vacated Targets: Top Five

Percentage of Vacated WR Targets: Top Five

Percentage of Vacated Goal Line Targets: Top Five

Early Round Breakouts

Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

The Rams make all four of our top-5 lists as Cooper Kupp is now in Seattle and Demarcus Robinson is in San Francisco. The fantasy community seems to be split as to whether or not Adams will be Matthew Stafford's top target in 2025 or if it will remain Puka Nacua. But as long as Stafford is healthy (and he seems to be now, so let's all collectively exhale), I think there's plenty of potential production to go around for both receivers.

Davante Adams is still that guy, man.. pic.twitter.com/iJxqwT8dZb

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 5, 2025

Adams would qualify as more of a "bounceback" than a true "breakout," but at some point, we are just arguing semantics. The point is that he's coming off two straight down years in Las Vegas and New York, and is set for a major QB upgrade in what could be a top-5 offense in the NFL.

I don't think Adams has to catch more balls or rack up more yardage than Nacua to still be a value at his late-third round ADP. I see Adams emerging as a major red zone threat for the Rams. With 53% of their goal-line targets gone from last season, there's an opportunity for Adams to fill that void and pile up touchdowns.

Adams has averaged 0.63 touchdowns per game in his career, which would put him on pace for around 10 or 11 over the course of a full 17-game season. Despite missing three games last year, Adams finished second behind only Ja'Marr Chase with 16 targets inside the 10-yard line.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

No team lost more air yards in the offseason than Seattle, as their top deep threat, DK Metcalf, was dealt to Pittsburgh. Metcalf had the ninth-highest air yards per target last season at 13.7.

Seattle also has the second-most vacated targets and WR-targets of any team, as veteran Tyler Lockett (74 targets in 2024) also departed for Tennessee.

That leaves JSN as the WR1 going into the 2025 season with the newly-acquired veteran Kupp as Seattle's WR2. Jake Bobo is one of the few holdovers in the receiver room with rookie fifth-rounder Tory Horton and veteran Marquez Valdes-Scantling both vying for snaps as new additions.

TRUE/FALSE - Jaxon Smith-Njigba finishes as a WR1 in fantasy this season. pic.twitter.com/7i0EFH9x0s

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) August 7, 2025

JSN is coming off a huge sophomore season in which he caught 100 balls for 1130 yards, but could be heading for an even bigger year in 2025? Last year, Smith-Njigba lined up more in the slot (85% of the time) than any other receiver who played a significant amount of snaps. But with Kupp now in this offense (76% slot rate), we should see JSN line up outside more often and run more routes down the field.

New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak wants to establish the run in Seattle and will bring his play-action heavy passing game with him to Seattle, which should ask JSN to run deeper routes more often.

JSN's aDOT increased from 6.1 in his rookie year to 8.7 last season. We could see that number continue to increase in 2025. He has the potential to catch more passes, rack up more yards, and score more touchdowns in 2025.

Middle Round Breakouts

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans

I am well aware that Ridley is receiving a lot of buzz in the fantasy community, but I think it's all very warranted based on the massive opportunity in front of him this season in Tennessee.

The last two seasons could be viewed as disappointing when compared to Ridley's breakout season in 2020 as a member of the Atlanta Falcons. However, despite catch rates of just 56% and 53% the last two seasons, Ridley has still eclipsed 1,000 yards in each, averaging six touchdowns per season without missing a game.

Calvin Ridley finished as WR28 last year… but don’t sleep.

▶️New QB Cam Ward already locked in on him
▶️Career-best efficiency under Brian Callahan
▶️Touchdowns are the only thing missing

Ridley is the value WR for 2025. Agree or disagree?pic.twitter.com/DBwuR2sSTr

— Moody (@EricNMoody) August 19, 2025

Yes, he's playing with a rookie quarterback, but not just any rookie. He's paired up with the top pick of the draft in Cameron Ward, who has already shown this preseason that he'll be funneling targets Ridley's way this season. Ward has to be viewed as an upgrade from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, and Ridley is going to have little competition for targets with only guys like Van Jefferson, Lockett, and rookie Elic Ayomanor behind him on the depth chart at the position.

Just look at that percentage of vacated goal-line targets (77.8%)! Nick Westbrook-Ikhine led the team with seven last season, while Nick Vannett (four) and Tyler Boyd (three) are both gone this season. Ridley had just three targets inside the 10-yard line last season, which was good for only a 13% goal-line target share. You have to think he's set for positive regression there and that he could be poised for his best season in receptions and touchdowns since his days in Atlanta.

Late Round Breakouts

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Cleveland sneaks onto several of our top-5 lists, despite Tillman and Jerry Jeudy returning from last year's receiving core. Elijah Moore (102 targets) is gone, and Amari Cooper (53 targets) departed six games into last season.

As scary as it might be to invest in the Cleveland offense this season, the fact remains that there is a ton of opportunity for Cleveland pass catchers to put up very useful fantasy stats this season. While Jeudy is set to operate as the WR1 in this offense, it's Cedric Tillman who interests me the most based on their respective ADP.

Jeudy's ADP in half-PPR formats is around 75, meaning he will cost you a sixth-round pick in a 12-team league. However, Tillman is 175, which means you can get him with one of your final picks.

Cedric Tillman was looking like a starting-level X-receiver and was as productive as, if not more productive than, Jerry Jeudy before concussions ended his 2024 season. It's just easy to forget because it happened during the year. @JamesDKoh and I go through his… pic.twitter.com/flcM3HmZo0

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 16, 2025

Tillman had an impressive stretch last season from Weeks 7 through 11 when he averaged 15.5 fantasy points before getting hurt in Week 12 and missing the rest of the season. Tillman's per-game production was on par with Jeudy's when they were in the lineup together, and I think he will compete with Jeudy to be the primary target in this offense this season.

Joe Flacco should help stabilize the offense early in the season and deliver catchable targets to Tillman, and the Browns, as weekly underdogs, should find themselves in plenty of pass-heavy game scripts with a defense that could struggle to stop offenses again this season.

Dyami Brown, Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jags are a very trendy offense to target for fantasy football this season. While we struggle to figure out which of their top three running backs new coach Liam Coen will use, we're also trying to take some guesses as to how much rookie first-rounder Travis Hunter will play on offense and whether the Jags will have a strong enough passing game to sustain a third receiver's weekly fantasy value.

Dyami Brown is competing with Parker Washington and Trenton Irwin to be that third receiver. He's coming off the best season of his career in Washington, even though he only played 42% of the snaps and commanded just a 7.8% target share.

Which #Jaguars player am I most excited to see in Liam Coen’s offense?

It might be Dyami Brown.
- 7.6 YAC/ REC (8th/110 WRs)
- 11 Missed Tackles (Would’ve led Jags)
- 229 Yards in Playoffs (2nd Most) pic.twitter.com/u9YveoyHTM

— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) August 4, 2025

His real breakout came in the Commanders' surprising playoff run. Brown went 5-89-1 against Coen's Buccaneers in the Wild Card round and then 6-98 in Washington's upset of the Lions.

Jacksonville returns Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington to the receiver room, but Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and tight end Evan Engram are all gone. Brown is a bigger, more physical receiver than Washington, and if Coen is going to turn this offense into anything resembling Tampa in 2024, then there should be a big opportunity for Brown to provide value as a late-round dart throw in redraft leagues.

Roman Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

The last team I really want to invest in this season is the Steelers. Perhaps my frustrated fandom is bleeding into my objective analysis, but I think Pittsburgh's offense in 2025 could be a big mess and a rather unproductive unit. But the numbers we are focusing on for this article demand that we address the Steelers' situation at wide receiver, as they shipped off their only real threat in the passing game, George Pickens, to Dallas in the offseason.

Pickens' 103 targets in 2024 were nearly twice as many as the next-closest wide receiver, Calvin Austin III, who had 58. Jefferson (40) and Mike Williams (13) are no longer in Pittsburgh, leaving Austin and tight end Pat Freiermuth as the only pass-catchers who were involved last year still in Pittsburgh in 2025.

The Steelers haven’t signed more veteran receivers up to this point in part because they are high on Roman Wilson, who impressed both in the joint practice with the #Bucs and the game. Last night was a good sign for Pittsburgh. pic.twitter.com/YwltIo40GH

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) August 17, 2025

The big addition this offseason was Metcalf; however, I am out on Metcalf at his ADP. I think he will struggle to be a consistent fantasy force with Aaron Rodgers's inability to deliver the ball down the field and Arthur Smith's offense focusing on running the football and spreading the ball around to tight ends and backs out of the backfield.

So, who do we like to soak up targets this season as the Steelers' WR2? The competition is between Austin (a small, but speedy slot receiver), Robert Woods (who hasn't been good in years), Scotty Miller (another journeyman slot guy), and Roman Wilson. Wilson was a third-round pick in 2024, but failed to get on the field as he dealt with multiple injuries.

Wilson has flashed some upside in the preseason with some nice catches, and I think he could be poised to emerge from that group of receivers as the WR2. He's virtually free in drafts and could work his way into a substantial role for a Steelers team that I think may have to pass the ball more than Smith wants to this season (I'm implying that they are going to be losing games and playing from behind).

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