Early ADP Thoughts - Outfielders

♫It's the most wonderful tiiiiiiiime, of the year!♫ Well, sort of. In much of the country, February brings terrible weather and generally feels interminable, despite being the shortest month on the calendar. This being a leap year, we get an extra day of it. Fun! But for fantasy baseball owners, fun is exactly what you […]

Introducing EDV - Expected Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball

Last March at RotoBaller, we kicked off a cool fantasy baseball research project, exploring what we're calling Expected Draft Values. This offseason, we’ve refined the approach and our research, and taken things a step forward. We're sharing this concept with the fantasy baseball world now, and hope it's as helpful to you as it's been […]

Biggest Fallers: K-BB%, Part 1

K-BB% is a valuable metric because it shows which pitchers can combine strikeout ability with pinpoint control. Pitchers with high K-BB% possess high floors and ceilings because even when they’re not accumulating strikeouts, they are still usually able to pound the strike zone. The list below shows pitchers with the highest drop-off in this rate […]

Analyzing Fly Ball Metrics: 2020 Negative Regression Candidates

Last week, I uncovered a few pitching casualties from the record-setting 2019 season, which saw an unprecedented amount of home runs hit and a "juiced" ball theory come into light. While the use of the defensive shift has caused more players to change their swing into a fly ball-oriented approach, this monumental increase in dingers […]

Sophomore Players Due for Regression in 2020

The 2019 season saw a significant number of rookie hitters debut with great success. But Major League Baseball’s history is littered with strong freshman debuts followed by disappointing sophomore campaigns. In other words, successful rookie seasons do not guarantee all-star careers or even another good performance. We can look back at 2016 for some examples […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Third Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Fernando Tatis Jr. - 2019 Season in Review

A year ago, though he was highly valued in dynasty leagues, Fernando Tatis Jr. was viewed merely as a late-round flier in redraft formats. At just 20 years old and with only 450 plate appearances above Single-A, there was a large degree of uncertainty around his 2019 outlook. Would San Diego's front office manipulate his […]

2019 Season in Review: Carlos Correa

Over the first five seasons of his career, Carlos Correa has demonstrated why the Astros chose him first overall in the 2012 MLB amateur draft. He captured American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2015, along with some down-ballot MVP consideration. In 2017, he made his first All-Star team, finishing 10th in the league […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Shortstop

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

2019 Season in Review: Danny Santana

One of the first articles I ever published with RotoBaller was a warning. Specifically, this column dissuaded fantasy owners from buying into Danny Santana's breakout 2014 season. (Yes, I've been doing this for a long time/am old.) That year, Santana had emerged from obscurity as a 23-year-old rookie to hit .319/.353/.472 with 70 runs scored […]

Biggest Outfield Risers/Fallers of 2020

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season as well as the beginning of Fantasy Baseball Prep season! It may seem like the 2020 fantasy baseball season just ended, but the 2021 season will be here before we know it. Now is as good a time as ever to start thinking about your new draft […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Second Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - First Base

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospects. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This includes […]

Early 2020 ADP Reflections - Catcher

When a baseball season ends, the following season can’t come here soon enough for some fans, myself included. We start thinking about what we want to see from some players, which includes letdowns, bounce-backs, and even young prospect candidates. Instead of letting them bounce off the brain walls, let’s put these musings into digits. This […]

2019 Fantasy Baseball Season Review - RotoBaller Staff Picks

Playoff fever is in full effect but sadly, the fantasy baseball season has come to an end. We're not ready to let go just yet, so the RotoBaller staff decided to look back at the 2019 season from a fantasy perspective in order to dole out awards for top sleeper, bust, and of course, MVP. […]

Champ or Chump: Shed Long and Tommy Edman

With 2019 basically in the books, a lot of fantasy baseball content is starting to focus on 2020: namely early picks in 2020. While a lot of owners agonize over whether to take Christian Yelich or Ronald Acuna Jr. with the second overall pick, the truth is that the decision isn't likely to matter so […]

Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds - wOBA-xwOBA Difference for Week 26

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers Statcast studs and duds article series for the final week of fantasy baseball! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two studs and two duds, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. We have sadly reached the end of the season, so I thought […]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 26

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 26! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise […]

The Cut List (Week 26) - Time to Let Go?

Here it is, the final week. With 96% of the season in the books, anyone can be considered droppable under the correct circumstances. Most obvious would be a situation where you have already hit a playing time cap and thus have no use for anyone who plays that position. Or if you are 15 home […]

Champ or Chump: Tim Anderson and Jorge Soler

With only a week and a half left to go in the regular season, most fantasy owners either have their leagues won, have moved onto other things, or are finishing up their H2H playoffs. If you're one of the lucky few who still has a reason to care if your starting SS is getting a […]

Starters WAR Studs and Duds: Week 25

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers advanced stats and StatCast studs and duds article series! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two studs and two duds, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. At this point in the season, I will focus on an all-encompassing stat for starting pitchers; […]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 25

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 25! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise […]

The Cut List (Week 25) - Time to Let Go?

Only two weeks to go! Not much time in roto, but enough if things are close, or if you're entering crunch time in a head-to-head playoff. If you're facing those circumstances, you know it's no time to get casual. The players themselves don't have much time to turn things around either. Players do go through […]

Buy or Sell: Undervalued and Overvalued Players for Week 25

The baseball season is winding down, and with that, this is the final edition of this article for the year. It has been a fun ride with several hits (and a few misses that I would not prefer to mention), but hopefully, readers were capable of accruing enough talent from a few of these recommendations […]

Gauging Trust Levels in Cubs’ Starting Pitchers

The Chicago Cubs are currently sitting at 78-68 and in a tie for the second wild-card spot with the Milwaukee Brewers. They're two games ahead of the New York Mets, while the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies are still hanging around at 2.5 and 3.5 games back, respectively. With just 16 games remaining, the Cubs […]

Champ or Chump: Nico Hoerner and Ketel Marte

Is it just me, or are an unusual number of superstars missing time due to injury down the stretch? If you're looking for a Christian Yelich replacement, Trent Grisham was previously covered in the column as an intriguing add with playing time concerns. Those playing time concerns have now evaporated, so Grisham is an astute […]

Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds: WHIP for Week 24

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s pitchers Statcast and advanced metrics studs and duds article series! Each week we will select an advanced stat, choose two risers and two fallers, and analyze what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. With the fantasy playoffs upon us, I will write about a broader stat that can influence […]

Strikeout Rate Risers and Fallers - Buy or Sell for Week 24

Welcome back to the strikeout rate risers and fallers series for Week 24! Each week we will take a look at two K% risers and two fallers, analyze what is behind those changes, and then decide if they are actionable. A pitcher can best control their fate by generating swings and misses, so this exercise […]

The Cut List (Week 24) - Time to Let Go?

Time is running out to make a move in your league. You're still looking to hit on categories that are close while sacrificing those where you are fairly isolated in the standings with little to gain. Achievable gaps are only getting smaller, too. Harder to make up two or three home runs in three weeks […]