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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 5/13/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
It's always a little easier to write a betting column when your bets from the previous day hit. Oh, and we hit 'em good! Monday's NRFI picks went 5-0 for the first sweep of the season! Take a look!
Let's see if we can keep it rolling today with five more picks! My confidence is high, but I will still do my due diligence to vet every angle of these picks, too!
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning and not the outcome of the entire game. The most common outcome for the first inning is a NRFI, so usually the odds will reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds when compared to YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (May 13, 2025)
- Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians (6:10 pm)
- St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies (6:45 pm)
- Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (7:07 pm)
- Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (7:15 pm)
- Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (9:45 pm)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- MIL: Quinn Priester (4-1)
- CLE: Logan Allen (6-1)
This is where I have to lean into some more of the niche NRFI data, because I would not describe either of these pitchers are "good" based on their stats. We are talking about two pitchers with SIERAs in the five range and xERAs in the high fours!
But their first-inning records are solid and backed by some good underlying data, as Priester carries a 0.94 first-inning WHIP and Allen's is 1.00. They have allowed just one first-inning home run between them.
We were able to cash this game yesterday, even with a less-than-stellar starter (Ben Lively) pitching. Can we do it with two mediocre arms today? The offensive stats early are ugly for both teams as they have identical 76% NRFI records. Cleveland is 9-1 and Milwaukee is 8-2 over their last 10 games on NRFIs.
The lack of dominant pitching is baked into the odds, which are nearly even money. I'm going to roll the dice on another slow start from the bats on these teams today.
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-145 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- STL: Sonny Gray (6-2)
- PHI: Jesus Luzardo (6-2)
We were able to correctly predict an NRFI in this series yesterday, too, as Matthew Liberatore and Cristopher Sanchez came through for us. Both teams send strong starters to the mound again today, with the Cardinals' ace Sonny Gray facing lefty Jesus Luzardo.
Sonny Gray, Wipeout 86mph Sweeper. 🌞
7th K pic.twitter.com/XAASIIWlxc
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2025
We have the same level of caution here as yesterday; these are good offenses, but I tend to favor pitching in the first inning when all things are equal. The Phillies' bats worry me the most, so it's good to see that Gray has been rock solid of late with three straight scoreless first innings and just three hits allowed in the first over his last five starts.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- TBR: Shane Baz (6-1)
- TOR: Jose Berrios (6-2)
The overall NRFI records look good, but we also have some recent trends that make this bet feel a little safer, too. The Jays have the better first-inning offense, but also face the better pitcher, as Baz's overall numbers are considerably better than Berrios. But the Toronto righty has been very good of late, with four straight NRFIs, and he's pitched quite well overall in those games, too, not just in the first inning.
José Berríos, Painted Front Door Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/u0EGyD3eJ5
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 8, 2025
Tampa has one of the highest NRFI rates on offense (78%), and they are struggling badly against RHP right now with a wRC+ of 76 and a 26% K%. I think Berrios can dispatch of them pretty easily in the first. Meanwhile, Baz has had some issues with the long ball, but not until the second or third time through the order, as he has yet to surrender a first-inning bomb and has a tidy 0.86 WHIP across the first inning of his seven starts this season.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- WAS: Mike Soroka (2-0)
- ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach (7-1)
Man, I love these odds! I am not sure if the books just don't trust Mike Soroka or if they are overvaluing these offenses, but I expected a higher number than -120 here. Soroka has been perfect through both of his first innings in two starts, while Schwellenbach has been lights out, too. Not only is Schwelly 7-1 on NRFIs, but he's at a 0.75 first-inning WHIP and has allowed just a .148 opposing batting average.
#Nationals Michael Soroka out here painting the edges and hitting his spots in the first inning
2K in a clean first inning and painted the edge here for a K with a nasty changeup
He has my attention. Let’s see how the rest of this game goes. pic.twitter.com/MK0mYADna0
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 7, 2025
Washington and Atlanta have below-average NRFI rates of 74% and 73%, respectively. Both teams are 8-2 on NRFIs over their last ten games. This one feels like another game where both pitchers have a solid matchup, yet we are getting really good odds. I'm backing the numbers here, suggesting that these offenses continue to struggle early against two good pitchers.
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- ARI: Brandon Pfaadt (7-1)
- SFG: Robbie Ray (6-2)
I won't lie, this one makes me the most nervous! Our late-night hammer features two pitchers who are in terrific form right now and who have solid NRFI stats this season. However, both guys can be a bit volatile, too, so it's not exactly free money either. All it takes is one swing to lose this bet, and both pitchers can be somewhat home run-prone.
Brandon Pfaadt, 94mph Painted Front Door Two Seamer. 🖌️🎨 pic.twitter.com/Hs99S7YGXb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 9, 2025
Back to the recent form, though, Pfaadt is coming off his best start of the year against a very good Dodgers lineup. Ray was able to shut down an elite Cubs offense in his last start, too, and has looked tremendous now in three straight outings.
Both offenses are dangerous, but this is probably our best pitching matchup, so I am counting on the starters to keep up their strong recent play.
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Royals, Marlins, Red Sox, Yankees, Pirates, Guardians, Astros (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Athletics, Angels (50%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Angels, D-Backs (3)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Blue Jays (.372)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: Reds (.491)
After a perfect 5-0 sweep on Monday, we’re heading into Tuesday’s MLB slate with strong momentum and another carefully researched batch of NRFI bets. Each pick today is supported by pitcher trends, matchup data, and recent team performance, all pointing toward value in the NRFI betting market. Whether you’re tailing all five or just riding your favorite, there’s no better way to start your betting day than locking in the best MLB betting picks for no-run first innings.
Remember, these bets only last six outs—but the thrill (and value) is real. Let’s keep the hot streak alive and cash in again today!
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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