Breaking $100: PGA Betting Picks and Strategy - The Players Championship

This series has got off to an incredibly sweaty start with Berger blowing a Sunday five-shot lead two weeks ago, and Hovland letting a Sunday back-nine lead slip through his fingers last week. As much as it stings to have come so close, twice, the entertainment value of having a horse in the race on a Sunday afternoon has been well worth it. Heading into week three of Breaking $100, I no longer have any nerves to offer the golf gambling gods, which is another positive. It has been a great journey so far and I look forward to sharing my thoughts on The Players Championship with you.

For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver", all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

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Course Breakdown and Key Stats

TPC Sawgrass, Par: 72, Yardage: 7,189, Greens: Bermuda, Designer: Pete Dye

The third stop on the Florida swing will be at TPC Sawgrass. Water lurks everywhere at The Players Championship with winners needing a balanced game to navigate all 18 holes. The course is on the shorter side, watering down any major distance advantage off the tee (OTT), with risk often outweighing any rewards of a long drive. Good drives gained will be the OTT metric that we will be relying on this week. A lot of players will be utilizing irons off the tee on Par 4s to get into the best position for their approach shot, which means we will weigh strokes gained on approach (SG: APP) heavily this week. With 38% of approaches coming from 125-175 yards, wedge proximity will be important too.

The average greens in regulation percentage at TPC Sawgrass is about two percent less than the tour average, requiring a deft touch around the well-guarded greens. From a scoring perspective, the Par 5s are four of the five holes that play under par here, making Par-5 scoring a key component of success. Although the Par 5s offer up the most birdies, there are several holes that play similar to the iconic island-green Par-3 17th. A good shot will reward you with a birdie, but an errant approach is an automatic watery bogey, which is why bogey avoidance and birdie or better percentage will both be part of our decision-making process.

We have a few more criteria than usual this week, but as Pete Dye intended, Sawgrass challenges so many aspects of your game. In summary, we are looking for golfers with great numbers in most of the below criteria:

• Model rank
• Good drives gained (GD%)
• Strokes gained on approach (SG: APP)
• 125-175 proximity
• Par 5 scoring
• Strokes gained around the green (SG: ARG)
• Birdie or better percentage (BoB%)
• Bogey avoidance

 

Outrights

Our betting strategy for outrights is rather conservative, requiring a winner once every eight events, in order to break even. From a dollar standpoint, we are betting $13.20 of our $100 to net $110 or more. Betting on outrights is extremely difficult and requires a lot to go right, so we are keeping our exposure in this market as small as we can, while still optimizing the opportunity to have a horse in the race down the stretch.

We have six outrights this week. The weather looks to be treacherous, with rain and wind adding to the variability of very volatile tournament history. The theory here is to send as many men into battle with hopes that one of them manages to dodge enough bullets to become a Players Champion. We are going to embrace the chaos.

 

Cameron Smith ($3.65 @ +3300)

Chaotic weather, meet chaotic Cameron Smith. The young Australian is one of the scrappiest professionals on tour. He somehow manages to score regardless of where his directionless driver goes. He is fourth in my model and jumps to third when incorporating a heavier emphasis on putting. He is a wallaby wizard in the short game department, ranking 12th in putting and 17th around the greens. His irons have become an absolute weapon lately, losing on approach only once since June 2021 at the Sony Open, the week after winning the Tournament of Champions. Smith is an incredible wedge player, ranking 15th in 125-175 proximity, from which he will have ample opportunity to show off this week.

Smith's scoring statistics are even more impressive than his strokes gained numbers. He leads the field in Par-5 scoring and has the second-best BoB%, all supported by his record-breaking 34-under par at the TOC. Even though his driver sometimes puts him in perilous positions, he is 14th in bogey avoidance, using skillsets from the first paragraph to avoid bogeys. If he limits the damage off the tee, the current king of Kapalua has all the tools to pull off his second win of the season and the biggest win of his career.

• Model rank: #4
• GD%: #77
• SG: APP/L24: #51 / #18
• 125-175 prox: #15
• Par 5 scoring: #1
• SG: ARG: #17
• BoB%: #2
• Bogey avoidance: #14

 

Daniel Berger  ($3.65 @ +3300)

Daniel Berger finds himself back on the Breaking $100 outright card, at double the odds and with double the scar tissue. After Berger's Sunday meltdown at the Honda Classic, we are hoping to give him a chance to redeem himself at a course that has all the elements to help him exact victorious revenge.

Berger has an incredibly well-rounded game, with every key stat ranking in the top 20 in a field loaded with 46 of the world's top 50 golfers. His strokes gained around the green is 95th because of his 2021 stats carrying a 77% weighting in the model. In 2022 he leads the tour in scrambling, which was on full display at the Honda and is now an obvious strength of his game. His improved short game is one of the reasons he is third in bogey avoidance. His incredibly consistent ball-striking is the second reason he hardly makes any bogeys. He is 14th in good drives gained and has an approach baseline and recent form that both crack the top five this week.

On a course with danger everywhere, he should dodge most of the bogey bullets, while firing back with birdies of his own. He is inside the top 20 in both BoB% and Par-5 scoring, which should complement his safety-first gameplan. In a field loaded with talent, it is unlikely he has a five-shot lead to squander on Sunday, allowing him to put together four quality rounds in an attempt to win the biggest purse in PGA Tour history.

• Model rank: #8
• GD%: #14
• SG: APP/L24: #5 / #4
• 125-175 prox: #11
• Par 5 scoring: #16
• SG: ARG: #95
• BoB%: #15
• Bogey avoidance: #3

Billy Horschel ($3.05 @ +4000)

Billy Horschel grades out horribly in my model, as he has had lengthy periods of average iron play. However, if we look at his last few starts, the fiery fairway finder has seemingly found some incredible short-term form with his irons. He has gained over five strokes on approach in both of his last two starts. If he can carry a similar iron performance over to TPC Sawgrass, the rest of his game has the baseline to make him a contender.

Horschel is very accurate off the tee, ranking 26th in good drives gained. He has gained around the green in five of his last six starts and is capable of making any putt he shimmies up to. His long-term stats are uninspiring, but his game is peaking in all the departments that matter around Sawgrass.

• Model rank: #50
• GD%: #26
• SG: APP/L24: #121 / #93
• 125-175 prox: #77
• Par 5 scoring: #31
• SG: ARG: #103
• BoB%: #72
• Bogey avoidance: #39

Russell Henley ($1.15 @ +8000)

Russell Henley has to be the value play of the week. It is not often the stat summary for someone at 80-1 has so many categories inside the top-20. Henley is consistently one of the best iron players on tour, ranking fourth in approach and fifth from 125-175. His game lacks distance, but his elite ability to control his golf ball through the air makes him an exciting play at a shorter TPC Sawgrass.

Waialae Country Club, where Henley lost in a playoff this year, is a great comparative course to TPC Sawgrass. Compared to Waialae, Sawgrass demands a little more accuracy off the tee, which Henley should have no problem dealing with. He is in the top-10 in bogey avoidance, which will help him feel less pressured to manufacture birdies to stay at the top of the leaderboard. With his immaculate ball-striking generating more birdie opportunities than the majority of the field, if Henley's putter can cooperate as it did in Waialae, he stands a really good chance to become the 2022 Players Champion.

• Model rank: #14
• GD%: #12
• SG: APP/L24: #4 / #21
• 125-175 prox: #5
• Par 5 scoring: #54
• SG: ARG: #40
• BoB%: #64
• Bogey avoidance: #7

Emiliano Grillo ($0.65 @ +20000)

Emiliano Grillo is our first of two 200-1 long-shots. Grillo has gained over 3.5 strokes on approach in five of his six appearances at TPC Sawgrass. This is not surprising as he is an excellent wedge player, ranking sixth from 125-175, with his approach play also sitting inside the top-20. Grillo is 15th in good drives gained which should put him in a lot of attacking positions with his wondrous wedges. Now, take a deep breath and plug your nose before reading the next paragraph.

Grillo has the fifth-worst around the green game, which is probably going to be a major issue around a course that has most pros scrambling on 40% of their holes. His short game puts the "mil" in Emiliano, as it appears he has lost millions of strokes around the greens in his life. However, with a little luck from the Argentinian golf gods, if Grillo has a divine short-game performance this week, the rest of his game is good enough to win.

• Model rank: #41
• GD%: #15
• SG: APP/L24: #16 / #89
• 125-175 prox: #6
• Par 5 scoring: #62
• SG: ARG: #138
• BoB%: #29
• Bogey avoid: #24

Patton Kizzire ($0.65 @ +20000)

At the same number as Grillo, Patton Kizzire instills a little more confidence into anyone looking at his stats. He enters the week with the 14th most strokes gained on approach L24. He is currently playing well above his approach baseline of 60th, but just like Horschel, we are looking to take advantage of his current form. His 21st ranked putting is another reason to believe he stands a chance to win The Players.

He avoids bogeys better than the majority of the field and finds himself as a top-20 birdie maker this week. Kizzire also seems to take advantage of Par 5s, ranking 29th in that scoring stat. If he can muster up top-10 performances with his irons and putter, while keeping his drives in play, 200-1 doesn't seem like a terrible bet for a man who makes as many birdies as he does.

• Model rank: #33
• GD%: #60
• SG: APP/L24: #61 / #14
• 125-175 prox: #76
• Par 5 scoring: #29
• SG: ARG: #85
• BoB%: #19
• Bogey avoid: #35

 

First-Round Leaders

Golf is a really weird game when it comes to the mental side of things. Some pros play better on Thursday when there is no pressure, while others play their best under pressure on a scorching Sunday afternoon. First-Round Leader bets will be for players who play really well on Thursdays. Typically, if you gain six strokes total on a Thursday, you stand a really good chance of leading after round one. A similar outright betting structure is in place for FRLs. We have nine events to break even, betting $12.50 to net $110 or more.

Sergio Garcia ($1.45 @ +8500)

We bet Sergio FRL last week and he almost missed the cut as a result of his Thursday antics. With hopes that the spicy Spaniard can keep his emotions in check for 18 holes, we think he can rekindle his Thursday vibes from last year's Players when he gained 8.8 strokes on the field in round one. He is fifth in the field in Par-5 scoring thanks to his OTT game that also ranks in the top five. If he can play the four Par 5s five-under par, which he did last week Friday, that should go a long way to securing a chance at a Thursday lead for the 2008 Players champion.

• Model rank: #31
• GD%: #45
• SG: APP/L24: #76 / #75
• 125-175 prox: #125
• Par 5 scoring: #5
• SG: ARG: #57
• BoB%: #32
• Bogey avoid: #21

Patrick Cantlay ($3.00 @ +4000)

In round one, Patrick Cantlay gained 7.1 at The American Express and 4.5 at Pebble Beach this year. He has gained over 3.5 strokes in four of his five Thursday rounds this year, which makes him a prime candidate to take down a FRL this Thursday. Cantlay is also the sixth-best golfer in my model, thanks to his Par 5 scoring, SG: ARG, and Bogey avoidance all ranking second. His eighth-ranked BoB% will also be really helpful when looking to go low around TPC Sawgrass. His recent iron play is a little concerning from a 72 hole tournament-long perspective, but all we need are 18 Patty Icicles to freeze out the rest of the field this Thursday.

• Model rank: #6
• GD%: #21
• SG: APP/L24: #28 / #40
• 125-175 prox: #73
• Par 5 scoring: #2
• SG: ARG: #2
• BoB%: #8
• Bogey avoid: #2

Daniel Berger ($3 @ +4000)

Berger gained 6.3 strokes on Thursday at the Honda Classic and we missed out on his FRL ticket by one shot. He has the game to go low, especially when the pressure is off, which is why we like him again this round one.

Billy Horschel ($2.45 @ +5000)

Horschel has gained over five strokes in round one, three of his seven starts this season. He is one of the best putters in the field who seems to have found a groove with his irons. Some sizzling recent form added to his Thursday track record could blow the field away this week.

Russell Henley ($1.55 @ +8000)

In 10 starts this season Henley has gained an average of 0.4 strokes putting in round one, double his average of 0.2 on the season. He has had four Thursday rounds where he has gained over 4.3 total strokes on the field. His season-best 6.02 total strokes came on Thursday at Waialae, which we have compared to Sawgrass for Russell's sake. Henley is dangerous on Thursdays, especially at a course that suits his player profile.

Patton Kizzire ($1.05 @ +12000)

Kizzire has gained an average of 1.77 strokes in 12 round ones this season. In rounds two, three, and four he averages -0.17 strokes or worse. He gained five strokes in round one at the Sony and 4.27 strokes at The American Express. If he can play freely with his irons and see a few putts drop early in the round, cashing a Kizzire FRL ticket would be a great start to the week.

 

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Placings

My suggestion to anyone looking to place these bets would be to get signed up with FanDuel Sportsbook. Their placing odds are usually 30+ points higher than the rest of the industry. Over time, this makes a massive difference. When betting placings, we have a slightly different approach to outrights and FRLs. We will be incorporating putting into our golfer power ranking, as players like Keegan Bradley would pop for top-20s all the time if we don't include some accountability for the flat stick.

We have $74.30 remaining in the bank, of which we will be using $69.30 on five T20s and three T40s. Odds range from +155 to +500 so roughly three of the eight guys we bet need to cash to make a profit.

Cameron Smith (T20: $9.06 @ +150 on DK, +155 on FD)

Five of his last seven starts have been T15 or better. He gets it done...somehow.

Daniel Berger (T20: $9.06 @ +175 on DK, +150 on FD )

If Berger can keep his ball dry, as he did at the Honda, he stands a fantastic chance of racking up his fourth T20 in five starts.

Sam Burns (T20: $9.06 @ +200 on DK and +240 FD)

After missing three cuts in a row, Sam Burns finished T9 last week at the API, notching his seventh T20 in 10 starts this season. When Burns is playing his best, his putter and his irons gain him the majority of his strokes, gaining a total of 10 strokes in those two departments last week. I don't feel super confident that this is the best course for Burns, but at +240 the model said there is 18 points of value on this bet, with +222 being the lowest we would bet Burns T20. If his irons and putter show up again this week, this bet stands a really good chance to cash.

• Model rank: #12
• GD%: #49
• SG: APP/L24: #12 / #32
• 125-175 prox: #60
• Par 5 scoring: #15
• SG: ARG: #88
• BoB%: #6
• Bogey avoid: #23

 

Russell Henley (T20: $9.06 @ +200 on DK, +320 on FD)

We are all aboard the "Russ Bus"! Henley cashing a T20 at +320 would cover all our outrights and first-round leader bets this week. He has made every cut this year and has finished inside the top-20 in half of his last eight starts. Fairways and greens, Russell.

Paul Casey (T20: $9.06 @ +260 on DK, +500 FD)

With the third-best approach ranking, the model loves Paul Casey. The rest of his game is very shaky, losing four strokes putting at Bay Hill, which is only his fifth-worst putting over the last two seasons. When he putts badly, he misses everything. However, his wedges and approach game should give him an incredible amount of really good birdie opportunities. He had a T9 here last year which should give him some much-needed confidence. This bet is a number grab and we wouldn't touch it at anything less than +400.

Seamus Power (T40: $8 @ +140 on DK, +185 FD)

After a run of five straight T20s, Power has missed three straight cuts. Each missed cut was a result of a random part of his game malfunctioning. In a loaded field, he has been downgraded to the T40 club, but FanDuel seems to have done the same at +185 for a T40. Seamus has proven he has the all-around game to perform at the highest level. Once he gets back to his steady self, we will be betting him T20 again in a few weeks. He has great accuracy off the tee, ranking 27th in good drives gained, and even after his three missed cuts he still ranks fourth in bogey avoidance. He has a very similar statistical profile to Daniel Berger, but with a smaller patty and few less fixings.

• Model rank: #20
• GD%: #27
• SG: APP/L24: #32 / #87
• 125-175 prox: #29
• Par 5 scoring: #25
• SG: ARG: #10
• BoB%: #33
• Bogey avoid: #4

Cameron Tringale (T40: $8 @ +140 on DK, +260 FD)

Tringale decided to miss the cut last week in epic fashion, recording a quadruple bogey on hole six at Bay Hill. In last week's article we mentioned his wife may have wanted him home for the weekend, which proved very true, but this week he should be free to golf the weekend. His last eight starts: MC, T13, MC, T3, MC, T7, MC, T2. With a missed cut last week, a T20 seems imminent, but we will be taking a slightly more conservative approach and bet him for a T40 in a very competitive field.

• Model rank: #26
• GD%: #75
• SG: APP/L24: #34 / #20
• 125-175 prox: #88
• Par 5 scoring: #40
• SG: ARG: #36
• BoB%: #30
• Bogey avoid: #12

Patton Kizzire (T40: $8 @ +230 on DK, +290 FD)

As we mentioned in the outright portion of the article, Kizzire's irons L24 are top-20, which is holding the majority of his game together. If he continues to hit his approaches close he stands a decent chance of collecting his fourth top-40 of the season.

The Farewell Fiver

Collin Morikawa (T5: $5 @ +400 on DK)

According to my model, Collin Morikawa is the best golfer in the field. I wanted to have him on the outright card but with the weather looking to be a major disruptor and his odds way under 20-1, it never felt right to put all our outright eggs in one wet basket. He is the best approach player, the best wedge player, and gains the fourth most good drives. He is a ball-striking masterclass. Collin has also won two majors in his short career. With this week's Players putting up the biggest purse in the history of the tour, I will not be surprised to see King Kawa rising to the biggest stage once again and contending for a win and a record-breaking $3.6 million first-place payout.

API Recap:

• Outrights: -$13
• FRLs: -$12
• Placings: -$33.50
• Farewell Fiver: +$7.75
• Total: -$50.75
• Season Total: -$108.75

Getting off to a slow start is a great example of why you should never bet money you can't afford to lose. We will hopefully bounce back in the next few weeks. Viktor finished T2 and we had two bets get slashed by dead heat rules this week, which all hurt. However, we pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and do it all again with a  smile on our faces. I have a good feeling about this week at The Players.

As always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

 

 

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