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MLB first baseman Brandon Belt is a potential 2022 fantasy baseball sleeper and ADP draft value. Target him as an undervalued 1B and late-round sleeper.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 195
CURRENT ADP: ~223 overall
ANALYSIS: Over the last two seasons, Belt's barrel rate has spiked to near 17% in both seasons and his hard-hit rates are at career highs. That's part of the reason Belt hit 29 home runs in just 97 games last year and has 38 home runs across his last 148 games, essentially a single season's worth of games. Last year he had a 99th-percentile wOBA (.526), 93rd-percentile xwOBA (.373), and 95th-percentile xwOBA on contact, to go along with a .526 xSLG. He continued to show his standard tremendous plate discipline and strong reach rates while hitting the ball hard in the air with a 94.2 mph average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives (69th-percentile).
If we can get 120-130 games from Belt at this current production level, I think you could be looking at a .260 hitter who gives you 25-30 home runs and 150 RBIs+Runs. That's pretty valuable going at pick 223.
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