RADIO
Right now, there seem to be three names floating around whenever people talk about who the top fantasy tight ends will be: Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Jordan Reed. Here's the problem with that: two of those three players tend to...umm...miss a lot of games. I really hate the idea of labeling a player as injury prone, but Gronk and Reed have a long history of not being healthy.
After those three, Greg Olson and Delanie Walker are good, safe bets. You know what you're getting there--solid production, not very many duds, maybe a game or two where they put up big numbers. You want Olson and Walker on your team.
What's that? Oh, you play in a league that has more than six teams? You have to look a little further down the tight end list? You're having an existential crisis as you glance at all these names, that feeling of well, guess I just have to live with that bad spot in my lineup dread welling up in your chest? Hey! Don't worry too much! There's good value there! Let's look at two players who can really bust out for you this year and one who probably will end up busting the other direction.
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Draft These Dudes
Hunter Henry, L.A. Chargers
If it feels like we've been talking about Antonio Gates replacements for years, it's because we definitely have--remember when Ladarius Green was going to take over for him? But this season and this player feel different. Gates had the lowest catch percentage of his career last season--57%--and just turned 37. As hard as it is to believe, his decline has started.
Meanwhile, Hunter Henry scored one more touchdown last season than Gates on 17 less receptions. His catch percentage was 10 points higher than Gates. The stats back it up--Henry was the best tight end on the Chargers last season.
There's still an obvious problem though: Antonio Gates. Henry is currently the best option that L.A. has at tight end, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the tight end job is his alone. A healthy Gates will cut into Henry's share of targets. You've got to just sit back and trust Henry to do big things with the balls he gets. That shouldn't be too big of an issue since he should end up getting the ball more this season than he did last season.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Ertz ended last season on a hot streak, seeing double-digit targets in three of Philadelphia's final five games. Yes, two of his four touchdowns came in the team's final game so there's some definite concern about that, but I'm all in on Ertz this year. He tied for the team lead in red zone targets and an older and more experienced Carson Wentz should help open Ertz up even more.
Ertz struggled after coming back from injury last season, with his targets remaining fairly low until the Eagles' eighth game. After that, though, he became a consistent part of the team's offense.
The addition of Alshon Jeffery should help Ertz--with an actually good wide receiver on the field, Ertz should get a little more space in which to operate.
Even with his three game absence last season, Ertz finished as a top-10tight end. He'll do that again this season. Sprinkle in some potential injuries to the top guys and you're looking at a huge steal with Ertz.
But Be Careful With This Guy
Eric Ebron, Detroit Lions
I lived in the Toledo area for a couple of years, so I met a lot of Lions' fans and one thing they all had in common was severely overrating random skill position players on their team. It was little odd, then, that they all seemed (and the ones I'm still in contact with still seem) frustrated by Eric Ebron.
On the surface, Ebron looks like a player who should do big things. Ebron's athleticism and speed were big news after the NFL Combine in 2014, but it's been three years now and that buzz is still just a lot of buzz. Ebron hasn't played a 16-game season yet and hasn't finished as a top ten fantasy tight end.
The numbers last season did look stronger: a 71.8 catch percentage and 11.7 yards per reception, plus he showed his big play ability at times. But here's the big problem with Ebron: he was only targeted six times inside the 20 last season. SIX. Four Lions players had more red zone targets and three of those four--Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, and Theo Riddick--are back this year. With an improved rushing attack--Ameer Abdullah should be healthy and Matt Asiata can do damage in short yardage situations, especially around the end zone--it doesn't look like Ebron is going to be too much more involved in the red zone, which is a huge limit to his upside. Getting extra yardage in the open field is great, but you need a tight end who can do work in the end zone. Unless something changes, that isn't Ebron.
