Starting Pitchers Who Were Busts and 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

January 8, 2025

Pranav's biggest starting pitcher busts for fantasy baseball, who didn't live up to their preseason values. He examines their 2025 fantasy baseball outlooks.

While some prefer to look at the players that brought them success, we can never really forget the ones who disappointed us. The players who carried high expectations, but for some reason or another, failed to meet them -- the "busts."

This article will look at the starting pitchers who could be widely considered "busts" after poor performances in 2024.

Any pitcher who suffered an injury that sidelined them for a significant portion of the season will be excluded (think Spencer Strider or Jesus Luzardo). Pitchers with late ADPs will also elide the "bust" classification, as a failed dart throw doesn't compare to a miss on a foundational pick.

Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 38

A premium pitcher in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts, Kevin Gausman feels like the biggest bust of all.

His 3.83 ERA and 14 wins kept him afloat in some cases, but very few fantasy squads could recover from a nearly 10-point decrease in strikeout rate (31.1% K rate in 2023, 21.4% K rate in 2024).

Advanced metrics tell an even worse story, as his 4.24 SIERA, 10.5% SwStr%, 93 Stuff+ grade, and 25.8% CSW% are among the poorest marks of the 33-year-old's career.

Like Bobby Miller, an early season shoulder injury may have hampered Gausman's performance. Entering his 13th season, you may have less confidence he'll be able to turn back the clock; but the discounted ADP he'll hold going into 2025 may mean he won't have to.

Bobby Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 89

A fantastic rookie year catapulted Miller up the 2024 fantasy baseball draft boards. But many are looking back in anger at the moment when they drafted the 25-year-old, as his 8.52 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate made him one of the biggest disappointments of the 2024 fantasy baseball season.

An early season shoulder injury took Miller off the mound after just three starts. But for what it is worth, Miller’s 3.85 FIP, 2.66 xFIP, and 36% strikeout rate offered great hope that he’d produce upon his return.

The Illinois native began rehab in late May, putting up a worrying 7.80 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 13.5% strikeout rate, and 10.8% walk rate through four starts in A-ball and Triple-A.

His return to a major-league mound proved even less fruitful, with a 9.87 ERA, 7.95 FIP, 2.08 WHIP, 10.8% strikeout rate, and 14.5% walk rate through four starts.

The vaunted rookie then went back to Triple-A Oklahoma, where he managed a meager 5.54 ERA through three starts. He took one more trip to Los Angeles late in the season, posting a 9.00 ERA, 7.68 FIP, 1.70 WHIP, and 20% strikeout rate through six starts before being bounced back to Oklahoma.

Despite the poor results, Miller’s 113 Stuff+ grade proves the talent was there amid an injury-plagued season. However, the addition of Blake Snell, the return of Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, and possible additions in free agency to an already-loaded Dodgers pitching staff complicate hopes that Miller finds his footing in 2025.

But when healthy, very few in MLB can go pitch for pitch with a talent like Bobby Miller. Early indications show Miller will be available deep in drafts; if there are no lingering health issues, you can do much worse in later rounds.

Bobby Miller, Annihilating the Side. 😳 pic.twitter.com/YfNTfmCz39

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 30, 2024

Jordan Montgomery, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 145

An unusually long time spent on the free agent market should’ve raised some red flags, but very few expected Jordan Montgomery to put up the numbers he did.

Through 117 innings for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Jordan Montgomery held a 6.23 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, career-low 15.6% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate, and 26.7% CSW%.

While there are very few pieces of positive data emanating from his statistical profile, a 4.48 FIP and 12.3% SwStr% offer some hope that Montgomery didn't crumble completely. We can still live with the hope that 2024 was merely a below-average pitching season spiked by a few heavy doses of bad luck.

After Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick loudly rebuked his decision to sign Montgomery, it’s not likely we see the 31-year-old in Arizona next season. Perhaps with a change of scenery and a full off-season of preparation, Montgomery can regain something close to his 2023 form.

"If anyone wants to blame anyone for Jordan Montgomery being a Diamondback, you're talking to the guy that should be blamed."

D-backs managing general partner Ken Kendrick on the signing of Montgomery in the offseason.

Full interview: https://t.co/c9zHhCcebT pic.twitter.com/4wfNmwihSX

— The Burns & Gambo Show (@BurnsAndGambo) October 1, 2024

Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 125

Old Reliable wasn't so reliable this season, as Chris Bassitt turned in some of the worst numbers we've seen from him in a long while.

Through 31 starts, Bassitt turned in a 4.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 22.2% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate, and 14 losses to boot. The advanced metrics are poor, with an 8.7% SwStr%, 96 Pitching+ grade, and 4.46 xERA, putting the 35-year-old in precarious territory going into 2025.

Bassitt should still be a workhorse available at a discount in 2025, but with his degraded command, that might not be a great selling point.

More Fantasy Baseball Advice