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In fantasy baseball, owners can often spends weeks or months preparing for the draft. Many will pore over websites and lists and spreadsheets and forums and magazines for hours upon hours to ensure they make the right choices. But once draft day comes and goes, what’s next?
As the saying goes, you can’t win your league during the draft. The moves owners make during the season are the ones that will determine who wins. The art to winning at fantasy baseball is being able to determine who should be added to a roster and should be bypassed. In order to do that, an owner needs to be able to tell if someone is for real or not.
This weekly column will focus on some pitchers who have recently thrown their hats into the ring for consideration. These pitchers will be available in many leagues, and we’ll dig a little deeper to determine whether you should be picking these guys up or leaving them be. For Week 10, we'll look at Jeff Hoffman and Jimmy Nelson.
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From Colorado Craft to Milwaukee Lager
Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies
2016 Stats: 31.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.72 WHIP, 22 K (6.32 K/9), 17 BB (4.88 BB/9)
June 4, 2017 at San Diego: 7.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 9 K (11.57 K/9), 0 BB (0.00 BB/9)
Jeff Hoffman is a former top-ten pick that was part of the return package that sent Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies to the Blue Jays. With a star athlete’s build (6’5”, 225 pounds) and three potential plus pitches including a fastball that has touched 99 MPH, Hoffman is a scout’s dream come true. After being drafted in 2014, Hoffman quickly moved through the Rockies farm system in less than a year. He was called up to the bigs after just 29 starts in Colorado’s minors, and he debuted against the Cubs in August of 2016 at just 23 years old. He promptly got rocked. He would continue to struggle throughout the rest of the season, eventually finishing with a 4.88 ERA that was bolstered by a couple short relief stints in late September. He had walked way too many batters, barely struck anyone out, and he seemed quite hittable. Needless to say, it wasn’t what everyone was hoping for.
2017 saw Hoffman start the season back at Triple-A Albuquerque. He wasn’t terribly impressive, only posting two quality starts in his first five outings, but the Rockies decided they needed him anyway. Colorado then wore out a couple of his options by bringing him up for a couple spot starts in May with alternating demotions in between. That was where he started to get interesting. While he continued to be mediocre at the lower level (one quality start in three outings), his appearances in the majors brought performance that matched his hype. Hoffman logged a 2.92 ERA with a stellar 10.95 K/9 and measly 1.46 BB/9 over the course of the two outings in the bigs. No one could deny the success, and sure enough, when Tyler Anderson went down with a knee injury, Hoffman got the call once again.
On June 4th, Hoffman showed up and showed out against the Padres. He was everything the scouts said he could be. Hoffman threw seven strong innings in just 89 pitches, and he only gave up a single run on a solo shot by Hunter Renfroe. He struck out nine while drawing swinging strikes on 12.4% of his pitches. Almost as importantly, he didn’t walk anyone. Again. This made two straight big league starts for Hoffman in which he’d recorded zero walks. His fastball was clocked all the way up at 97.8 MPH, and it was still sitting at an average of 95.4 in the 7th inning. He also drew swings on 32% of the pitches he put outside the strike zone, well above the league average of just 28%. To top it off, those swings only resulted in contact 56% of the time, as compared to 64% of the time on average amongst starting pitchers. This allowed Hoffman to generate 7% less contact overall as compared to an average starter, but he still threw a strike on the first pitch 71% of the time. That’s 10% more often than the average starter. This combination of more first strikes, more swings at balls, and less contact overall gave Hoffman a huge leg up in the outing.
Verdict
Jeff Hoffman absolutely looks like he can be the real deal, but he doesn’t pass the smell test yet. His 2.61 ERA in the majors this year is supported by a 2.71 FIP and an outstanding 11.32 K/9 that should be drawing everyone in. The catch is that there’s no history to back up that strikeout rate, and without it, Hoffman quickly loses his shine.
Remember how Hoffman’s been pretty mediocre in Triple-A this season? He’s only had a 7.77 K/9 there. He’s also walked 3.27 batters per nine innings there. Those numbers are more in line with his historical numbers (career 8.00 K/9 and 2.94 BB/9 in the minors), and they’re far more likely to be the true numbers than his current 2017 major league numbers of 11.32 K/9 and 0.87 BB/9. It’s certainly possible that the new version that is more like Yu Darvish is the real deal, but it’s unlikely. One likely reason these numbers are so out of whack is that two of his three outings have been very nice draws, pitching against San Diego and Philly. Those two teams respectively rank 29th and 27th in runs scored, 3rd and 14th most in strikeouts while hitting, and 25th and 26th in walks taken while hitting. That will help pad the stats of any starter, especially when neither of those outings took place in Colorado. Once those strikeout and walk rates are normalized, his other numbers will start to have a greater impact. He’s currently buoyed by a .217 BABIP and 83.3% strand rate in the majors this year. Those will correct, leading to a rise in his ERA and WHIP. All of this leads to a version of Hoffman that strikes out less batters, walks more, gives up more hits, and allows more runners to score. Factor in that some of those future starts will begin happening in Denver, and Hoffman’s train looks to be headed towards a cliff.
Again, this is all a huge caveat that his current strikeout and walk numbers aren’t going to hold. If it turns out that the Rockies have a special Hoffman-whisperer on the staff who had never spoken to him prior to this May or Hoffman’s new girlfriend/battery-mate is only willing to attend major league games and brings a special spring to his step, then perhaps Hoffman is the next Darvish. No one pegged Jake Arrieta to go from replacement level to Cy Young in less than 24 months, and Hoffman’s far younger than Arrieta was. However, the odds aren’t in his favor. Fantasy owners would be smart to steer clear of the hype for now.
Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers
2016 Stats: 179.1 IP, 4.62 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 140 K (7.03 K/9), 86 BB (4.32 BB/9)
June 2, 2017 versus Los Angeles Dodgers: 8.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11 K (12.38 K/9), 0 BB (0.00 BB/9)
Jimmy Nelson was the talk of the town when he got called up for good in 2014. After a cup of coffee in 2013, Nelson started 2015 at Triple-A, and he was a star. Through 16 starts and 111 innings, Nelson carried a 1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 3.56 K/BB ratio. As a sinker specialist, he was piggybacking a 9.24 K/9 on a 60.2% ground ball rate, and he looked like an ace prospect ready for the show. 5 and 2/3 shutout innings in his first outing convinced everyone that Nelson was up to stay. He’d go on to get blown up in his next outing, but five straight quality starts after that with sky-high ground ball rates showed that the kid had his sinker mastered. He’d finish the season with a 4.93 ERA and depressed strikeout rate that were attributed to fatigue, but either way, everyone was pumped for a full season of Nelson in 2015. Unfortunately, that’s pretty much where the good times ended.
Nelson wasn’t good in 2015. His K-rate remained depressed at 7.51, his walk rate rose from 2.47 to 3.30, and he finished 177 and 1/3 innings with a lackluster 4.11 ERA. There was still hope, but concerns were also starting to form. 2016 didn’t help put those concerns to bed. Nelson went from not good to bad. His ERA rose another half a run, and his WHIP skyrocketed to 1.52. This was partially due to his walk rate going up another full point as well as a HR/FB rate that rose from 8.5% in 2014 to 14.5% in 2016. He still had a good ground ball rate at 49.4%, but his strikeout rate continued to fall. It looked like Nelson had no future as anything more than a mediocre to bad back-end starter with no fantasy value. Fantasy sites crashed Nelson’s ranking in their 2017 rankings (441 on RotoBaller, 602 on Yahoo!, 568 on FantasyPros), and he looked like nothing but a long shot for fantasy owners who longer for a return to those sweet days in late 2014.
Nelson hosted the Dodgers on June 2nd, and while he didn’t get a win on the day, it wasn’t because of anything he failed to do. Nelson shut the Dodgers out for eight innings, allowing just five hits and striking out 11. Everything was working for him. They fanned at 16.8% of the strikes they racked up, and when they did make contact, 58.8% of the balls put in play were grounders. His sinker was averaging 94.7 MPH, and he even cranked it up over 96 MPH on a couple of occasions. A couple sliders and curve balls kept the Dodgers honest, but in the long run, Nelson’s sinker carried the day. Especially interesting is the fact that he didn’t use it quite like how most sinker pitchers do it. Instead of pounding it low and away to force batters to ground out, the velocity allowed him to regularly jam hitters, resulting in 12 whiffs from right-handed hitters on pitches that were in the middle of the strike zone or higher. It’s a risky approach, but if someone can bring that pitch in at 96 MPH with sinking action, it can be brutal for a hitter to try to handle.
Verdict
Jimmy Nelson is the real deal, but he rides a fine line. The standard catches that come with all sinker specialists also come with him. He’s completely dependent on one pitch, so if it’s off, he’s dead. If he leaves it up and it doesn’t sink much or at all, it’s a batting practice pitch. It’s kind of like being a knuckle-baller, though with a lot more predictability. It’s a risky life, but there have been some great sinkerballers.
With Nelson, he gets a couple bonus catches. The first is that he needs to not walk people. In his last four outings, he’s walked a total of two guys. That’s fantastic! In the one outing before those four, he walked four. Less fantastic. Kind of the opposite of fantastic. He can get away with it sometimes, but for him to have consistent success, he needs to keep his walks down.
The second is that he needs to strike guys out. The difference between a mediocre sinker pitcher and a great sinker pitcher is his strikeout rate. There are a lot of guys who can generate a 50% ground ball rate. Currently, there are 33 starters in the majors who have a ground ball rate of 50% or higher. Of those 33, eight have a strikeout rate of 9.00 or higher. Of those eight, three have an ERA of 3.50 or higher, and only one has an ERA over 4.00. Nelson is currently at a 47.3% ground ball rate and 9.09 K/9. Over his last five starts, he’s at 48.8% and 11.02. His ERA is inversely related to that strikeout rate. If he can keep it up, his ERA will stay down.
The real questions with Nelson surround the strikeout and walk rates. The reality is that it’s not clear if he can keep them where they’re at, but it’s not illogical to think he can. While the strikeout rate is uncharted territory for Nelson in the majors, he’s posted strikeout rates over 9.00 at every level of the minor leagues. It makes sense that it just took him a couple years to get his groove. The same thing goes for his walk rate, which he’s had under 3.00 at some point at every level. However, the walk rate has been more volatile in his history. While he’s posted numbers like 2.59 in 111 innings at Triple-A in 2014 and 1.96 in 69 innings at Double-A in 2013, he’s also posted a 5.40 BB/9 in 83 and 1/3 innings at Triple-A in 2013.
For now, it makes sense to gamble. Nelson has a history of success, his numbers aren’t completely outlandish, and his 3.36 ERA is supported by a 3.03 FIP and 3.39 xFIP. His BABIP and strand rates are slightly inflated, but they aren’t due for massive corrections. Everything about Nelson indicates that while it’s not a sure thing that he’s breaking out, a lot of numbers are supporting that conclusion. Jimmy Nelson appears to be for real.
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