Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts From Matthew Liberatore and Javier Assad

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 21, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

The NL Central battle is heating up, and so are some of the arms. Top prospect Matthew Liberatore got some revenge on the organization that traded him by firing eight innings of shutout ball in Tampa. Unheralded righty Javier Assad wasn't out for vengeance, but he was playing for keeps with seven innings of one-run ball against the Blue Jays.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of 08/14/2023.

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Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals – 6% Rostered

2023 Stats (Prior to this start): 37.2 IP, 6.93 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 2.7 K-BB%

08/10 @ TB: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Where did this come from? Matthew Liberatore had been a disaster in every sense of the word this season, including a hideous 10.70 ERA in the three starts leading up to this gem. To call this the best start of Liberatore’s career is, while true, something of an understatement. It was the first start of Liberatore's career where he did not walk a batter. The two hits allowed by Liberatore are the fewest number of hits he’s allowed in a start, despite never completing more than six innings in a start prior to Thursday. The 92 GSv2 from this start is the highest of Liberatore’s career by 27 points, and his 92 GSv2 is higher than the GSv2 from his previous two starts combined.

Liberatore looked like a different pitcher Thursday night, shutting down the Tampa Bay Rays, a top-10 club by wRC+ against left-handed pitching. This was by far the best performance of his young career, which leaves us to wonder, has the top prospect figured things out?

A first-round pick by Tampa Bay back in 2018, Liberatore was considered one of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the 2018 class. His prospect value was so high that the Rays traded him to St. Louis for Jose Martinez and then-prospect Randy Arozarena in 2020. Scouts fell in love with Liberatore’s mid-90s velocity, 6’ 4” frame, and deep arsenal of secondary offerings. Liberatore seemed like the whole package, but the shine wore off a bit when he struggled at Triple-A, struggles that have carried over to the major leagues.

Liberatore works with a deep-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, and changeup. He spread his pitch usage rather evenly in this start, throwing no one pitch more than 29% of the time, and no one pitch less than 14% of the time. While Liberatore has plenty of options on the mound, it’s no secret that his curveball is his best pitch, and it was working for him in this start. A loopy 76 MPH offering, Liberatore’s curveball is best characterized by its superb spin rate. Liberatore has averaged 2,858 RPM with his curveball this season, putting him in the 91^st percentile of curveball spin.

A high spin rate looks great on paper, but as anyone who’s ever visited Garrett Richards’ Statcast page can attest, a high spin rate doesn’t necessarily translate to success on the mound. For Liberatore, the curveball has been up and down. On the bright side, Liberatore has held batters to a .213 xBA and a -1-degree average launch angle with his curveball. On the less encouraging side, Liberatore has a meager 9.6% swinging strike rate and 21.9% chase rate with his curve, along with a .207 ISO and 90 MPH average exit velocity against the pitch.

Liberatore had four whiffs and a 50% CSW rate with the pitch in this start, but it’s hard to trust the repeatability of this game over game. Tampa Bay, despite some considerable thump in their lineup, also has a 23.7% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers, tied for eighth-highest in the league. It was great to see this type of performance from Liberatore’s curveball, but we’ll need to see him do it again before the curve can be trusted. It may be that slow, loopy curveballs don’t play like they used to in today’s game.

The curveball was his knockout punch on Thursday, but Liberatore relied primarily on his fastballs to navigate the Rays’ lineup in this one. He threw either his four-seamer or sinker a combined 50% of the time and earned seven of his 15 whiffs with his fastballs. It’s surprising to see his fastballs perform so well because batters have been feasting on Liberatore’s four-seamer all season. Opponents have a .333 AVG, .536 SLG, and .387 wOBA against Liberatore’s four-seamer this season.

The sinker has had better outcomes, but a .296 xBA, .535 xSLG, and .420 xwOBA suggest that Liberatore has been rather lucky with the pitch. That idea is reinforced by Liberatore’s .265 BABIP against his sinker, an unsustainably low number given the 92.6 MPH average exit velocity and 12-degree average launch angle against the pitch this year. Liberatore did average 95 MPH with his fastballs in this start, something he hadn’t done since May 26. However, Liberatore’s fastballs have been pulverized this year, and one good start doesn’t change that. It’ll be interesting to see if he can sustain these velocity gains, but it’s far too early to trust his fastball.

One interesting change Liberatore made in this start had to do with his pitch sequencing. The Rays rolled out a lineup of nine right-handers, and Libertore responded by relying more heavily on his changeup. Here’s a look at his pitch usage prior to this start.

And here’s a look at his pitch usage in this start.

Liberatore led with the changeup more often and was much more willing to mix it in when behind. This was likely his game plan due to Tampa Bay’s lineup construction, but Liberatore might find it fruitful to feature his changeup like this on a regular basis. Opponents have a .200 AVG, .267 SLG, and .232 wOBA against the changeup this season. Liberatore usually prefers to lean on his curveball and slider as secondary offerings, so it’ll be interesting to watch his changeup usage over the remainder of the season.

Verdict:

Has Matthew Liberatore arrived? Not quite, but he’s at least back on the right path. His fastball velocity was at its highest since Memorial Day, and he had an elevated whiff rate with his heater in this one. His curveball has all the measurables and had a 67% whiff rate in this one, but the pitch has been susceptible to power and hard contact throughout the season. Liberatore mixed up his pitch sequencing in this one, featuring his changeup more prominently, especially early in the count. Increased changeup usage could take some of the pressure off of Liberatore’s bad fastball, and could lead to more strikeouts going forward. Given how poorly he’s performed prior to this game, I’ll need to see Liberatore do it again before he can be trusted. Interested fantasy players should monitor his fastball velocity and changeup usage on a start-by-start basis.

Javier Assad, Chicago Cubs – 3% Rostered

2023 Stats (prior to this start): 53.2 IP, 3.35 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 8.1 K-BB%

08/11 @ TOR: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Javier Assad came to play on Friday, shutting down the struggling Blue Jays lineup for seven innings of one-run ball. It was Assad’s third start of the season after working primarily out of the bullpen, and it was the first time he went deeper than 3.2 innings in a start this year. Assad owns a sparkling 3.11 career ERA over 98.1 innings between the bullpen and the rotation. However, with little prospect pedigree and no firm grip on a rotation spot, Assad hasn’t gotten much attention in fantasy circles. Could the young righty provide a spark for the Cubs and our fantasy teams, or are we right to overlook him?

In the baseball world, it’s easy to see how a pitcher like Assad could be overlooked. Listed at 6’1”, 200 pounds, he’s on the shorter side for a right-handed starter. His low-90s heater doesn’t inspire much excitement among scouts, and he lacks a standout secondary pitch. This is the perfect recipe for a prospect to fall into obscurity, but this isn’t the first time we’ve seen success from Assad. He had a 2.95 ERA in 36.2 innings as a starter for Chicago in 2022, and if the Cubs didn’t ink deals with starters Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly this offseason, there’s a chance Assad would’ve started the season in the rotation.

Assad takes a kitchen sink approach, throwing a whopping six different pitches. His repertoire consists of a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. His changeup and curveball are primarily show-me pitches, with each offering at a sub-5% usage rate. Assad leaned rather evenly on his two fastballs and his cutter while in the bullpen, and not much has changed as a starter.

Assad’s cutter has been arguably his best pitch this season, with opponents mustering a pathetic .169 AVG, .292 SLG, and .262 wOBA off the cutter thus far. It’s not much of a strikeout pitch, as Assad has just a 7% swinging strike rate and a 21% chase rate with the pitch. Rather, Assad finds success by inducing weak contact. Batters have an 86.5 MPH average exit velocity off the cutter this season, along with a 31.3% infield flyball rate. Weak flyballs and infield flyballs are practically guaranteed outs, and Assad has done a great job inducing this type of favorable contact thus far.

Assad has played the soft contact game well, with an overall average exit velocity against of 87.5 MPH and a 27.7% hard-hit rate. All of his pitches have an average exit velocity less than 90 MPH, and he’s pitched himself into a .263 BABIP against. The one pitch getting knocked around a bit is his four-seam fastball, which has a .306 AVG and .372 wOBA against. Batters put a little smoke on this one, with an 89.2 MPH average exit velocity this season, the highest exit velo for any of Assad’s pitches.

The biggest issue for Assad’s fastball is the 28.6% line drive rate. Line drives have been an issue for Assad, as he has an above-average line drive rate against his three most commonly used pitches. His batted ball numbers may normalize towards league average, but Assad had the exact same line drive rate with his four-seamer in 2022.

Soft contact is great, but it’s tough to swallow a line drive rate this high, especially for a pitcher with little swing-and-miss in his game like Assad. Line drives are just too likely to fall for hits. For context, the leaguewide batting average on line drives is currently .706. Assad will need to focus on keeping the ball down or focus on playing into flyball tendencies. Either way, he cannot continue down this path as a starter and expect to find consistent success.

A potential pivot for Assad could be to incorporate his slider more often. Opponents have a paltry .125 AVG, .292 SLG, and .172 wOBA off Assad’s slider this season. He has an 11.8% swinging strike rate with the pitch, making it far and away Assad’s best strikeout pitch. The batted ball distribution on the pitch is comical. Assad has a 47.1% flyball rate, 52.9% groundball rate, and 0% line drive rate. That’s right, he has yet to surrender a line drive with his slider this season. Obviously, a 0% line drive rate is unsustainable over time, but Assad’s slider has performed quite well this season. He only had one whiff on 17 sliders in this start, but the slider looks like it could be a solid breaking ball going forward.

Verdict:

Assad has continued his confounding success as a starter. He has a 3.04 ERA as a starter for his career, but every underlying number screams regression, with some lowlights being his 1.44 K/BB ratio and 5.22 xFIP in 11 big league starts. Assad can’t overpower or fool hitters and has little strikeout upside. His biggest strength is his ability to induce weak contact, as batters have managed just an 87.5 MPH average exit velocity against him this season. This positive attribute is weakened by Assad’s propensity to surrender line drives, something he will need to rectify if he hopes to remain a starter in the big leagues. His slider has had incredible results this season, and Assad could benefit from featuring the pitch more prominently, but he hasn’t shown any signs of trending in that direction. For now, Assad is a low-ceiling streamer; a poor man’s Taijuan Walker.

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