X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson

Robert Gasser - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Pitchers, Rookies, Call-Ups

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 12, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We've got two young AL arms to look at this week. First, we'll break down Taj Bradley's one-run performance against Baltimore on Saturday. Then, we'll deep dive into Simeon Woods Richardson's strong outing against Pittsburgh.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of June 10.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays - 36% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 26.1 IP, 5.81 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 20.5% K-BB%

06/08 vs. BAL: 5 IP 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Bradley got revenge on the Orioles on Saturday, holding them to one run over five innings with seven strikeouts. This strong start comes on the heels of a nine-run outing for Bradley at the hands of these same Orioles. Revenge was bittersweet for Bradley, because despite his strong individual performance he was saddled with a tough-luck loss as his team put up zero runs in support. Bradley has shown us flashes at points this season and in previous seasons, but is he finally ready to be consistent, or will he flame out again?

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Rays back in 2018, Bradley became a hot pitching prospect thanks to some dominant performances at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Bradley struggled with his first taste in the majors last season, posting a 5.59 ERA in 104.2 innings, but an 11.09 K/9 and 3.82 SIERA suggested that Bradley was capable of producing better outcomes. Bradley works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, splitter, cutter, and curveball.

The fastball was working well for Bradley in this start. It was his most used pitch at 54%, and Bradley earned 10 of his 18 whiffs with his fastball. Bradley’s velocity was up in this game, with the young righty averaging 97 mph with his heater, compared to 96.3 mph on the year. This was an encouraging sign for Bradley, considering how hard his fastball has been hit this season. Opponents are hitting .321 against Bradley’s fastball, along with a .679 SLG and .445 wOBA.

With numbers that ugly, one might guess that Bradley has been horribly unlucky with his fastball this season and could be due for regression. Well, that hypothetical person would be wrong, because the expected stats on Bradley’s fastball are somehow even worse. Bradley’s fastball has a .361 xBA, .781 xSLG, and .493 xwOBA. Batters are clobbering the pitch for a 93.4 mph average exit velocity and a 23-degree average launch angle. With such poor overall numbers, could it be that Bradley was doing something different with his heater in this one? Let’s have a look at his season-long fastball heatmap versus the heatmap from this start.

Season (pre-6/8/24)

6/8/24

They're not drastically different, as we see Bradley continuing to attack high with the fastball but living in the zone quite a bit as well.

One area of change for Bradley with his fastball is in his sequencing. He was throwing the pitch more often when in even counts and ahead in the count, especially against left-handed hitters. The Orioles used a lefty-heavy lineup against Bradley, and he was able to navigate it by relying on his heater. Here’s a look at Bradley’s pitch sequencing from this start versus the rest of the season. Lefties haven’t given Bradley extra trouble at the major league level, but perhaps this new pitch sequencing could have him more effectively wielding what has been a poor-performing fastball. Pre-6/8/24 is on the top, and 6/8/24 is on the bottom.

If Bradley can figure out his fastball he could really take off, and that’s because his secondary stuff has been electric this season. His best secondary pitch is probably his splitter, which has a .162 AVG, .270 SLG, and .230 wOBA against. Even better, the pitch has a .135 xBA, .240 xSLG, and .216 xwOBA against. A 90.3 mph offering, Bradley’s splitter is a hard split-change with solid horizontal movement. Bradley also has a strong 14.3% swinging strike rate with the pitch this season, making it a bona fide strikeout threat.

It's not just the splitter for Bradley, who is also getting excellent results with his curveball and cutter. Batters are hitting sub-.200 against both pitches, and each pitch has a double-digit swinging strike rate. His cutter is especially impressive with a 17.1% swinging strike rate. With an arsenal like this, it’s easy to see how Bradley has put up a 28.4% strikeout rate through his young career.

The stuff looks legit for Bradley, especially if he can iron out the kinks with his fastball and produce better results more consistently. He still carries some pretty big flaws in terms of batted ball quality and distribution. Opponents are clobbering Bradley for a 91.8 mph average exit velocity, 116.4 mph max exit velocity, and a 17.3% barrel rate. For context, Aaron Judge leads all qualified hitters with a 15.9% barrel rate this season, and no qualified pitchers have a barrel rate higher than 12.9%.

Maybe this means regression is coming for Bradley, but it could also mean that he is far too hittable. Allowing hard contact isn’t the end of the world, and we’ve seen pitchers such as Framber Valdez succeed despite allowing extreme hard contact. Valdez can get away with it thanks to his groundball tendencies, but Bradley has just a 30.9% groundball rate and a 2.3 HR/9 this season.

Bradley’s biggest problem? Living in the zone. He has a 57.2% zone rate on his fastball this season. He’s trying to blow his 97 mph heat past hitters, and that isn’t a long-term winning strategy in the majors. For Bradley, he’d benefit from keeping the fastball up and peppering a healthy amount of secondary pitches, which is his best stuff. There’s talent here, but Bradley looks like he still needs to figure a few things out.

Verdict:

It’s easy to see the upside with Bradley. He’s got three strong secondary pitches and his 3.23 SIERA suggests that he could perform much better going forward. His fastball has also been clobbered this season and Bradley is surrendering tons of hard contact and home runs. Bradley has strong upside thanks to his strikeout potential, but he also carries the risk of blowing up at any moment. He’s better in points leagues where you aren’t protecting ratios, and in Roto and categories leagues he’s best deployed as a streamer against easy matchups. It’s just too hard to trust him against tough lineups at this point.

 

Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins - 14% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 44.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 13.8% K-BB%

06/08 @ PIT: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

Woods Richardson had one of his best starts all season on Saturday, holding the Pirates to just one run over 6.1 innings in a tough-luck loss. The 23-year-old right-hander lowered his ERA to 2.84 following this start, and with Woods Richardson available in so many leagues he could make for a sneaky waiver wire add in the immediate future. Is there anything here with Woods Richardson, or are fantasy managers right in their skepticism?

Originally a second-round pick by the Mets back in 2018, Woods Richardson was a highly regarded prospect a few years ago, but has since seen his star fade a bit as he progressed through the minor leagues. Woods Richardson was ranked as high as the 61st best prospect in baseball by Baseball America in 2020, but he only fell on lists after failing to add velocity and struggling when initially promoted in the minors. He’s also been traded twice, first from the Mets to Toronto for Marcus Stroman, then from Toronto to Minnesota for Jose Berrios. Woods Richardson works with a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball.

It's mainly been about the fastball and slider for Woods Richardson, and that was the case in this start against Pittsburgh as well. He threw his fastball 40% of the time in this start and earned five of his 17 whiffs with the pitch. A 93.1 mph offering normally, Woods Richardson had elevated fastball velocity in this outing at 94 mph. His velocity has been trending upward over his last three starts, and 94 mph is the highest that Woods Richardson has averaged this season. With average spin and movement, Woods Richardson’s fastball is about as middling as they get.

Opponents are hitting .264 with a .306 SLG and .297 wOBA off Woods Richardson’s fastball this season, but he’s also allowed a .476 xSLG and a .345 xwOBA against. Woods Richardson has a 91.8 mph average exit velocity and an 18-degree average launch angle against with his fastball but has allowed zero home runs with the pitch thus far. It’s likely that Woods Richardson will experience home run regression with this pitch at some point, and fantasy managers should be wary of his 7.6% HR/FB ratio and 4.09 xFIP.

So, the fastball is decidedly average. What about the slider? It’s Woods Richardson’s most-used breaking ball at 30.6%, and he used it 32% of the time against Pittsburgh. An 86.6 mph offering, Woods Richardson’s slider is characterized by its strong vertical movement. Here’s a particularly nasty example from this start.

Woods Richardson made Michael A. Taylor look foolish with that one, and it was one of six whiffs Woods Richardson earned with his slider in this outing. Unfortunately, the whiffs haven’t always been there for Woods Richardson this season. He has just a 9.8% swinging strike rate with his slider on the year, which helps explain his underwhelming 7.46 K/9.

Woods Richardson’s slider may not be a strikeout machine, but he has induced weak contact with the pitch this season. Batters are hitting just .173 against the pitch along with a .200 SLG and .169 wOBA. Unlike his fastball, the expected stats aren’t concerning as Woods Richardson has a .202 xBA, .253 xSLG, and .205 xwOBA with his slider this season. How does he do it? He has an 83.1 mph average exit velocity against and a 47.4% groundball rate with his slider. He may not get the strikeouts that other pitchers can get, but Woods Richardson is still excelling at inducing weak contact.

Woods Richardson rounds out his arsenal with a changeup and a curveball, but neither pitch is performing particularly well. Batters are hitting just .200 off Woods Richardson’s curveball, but he has a .327 xBA, .500 SLG, .581 xSLG, and .385 xwOBA against the pitch. His changeup hasn’t fared much better, with Woods Richardson allowing a .303 AVG, .697 SLG, and .448 wOBA off his changeup this season. The reality is that Woods Richardson’s stuff isn’t all that special. He has a swinging strike rate above 10% with just one of his pitches (curveball) and a chase rate above 30% with just one of his pitches (slider). For Woods Richardson he isn’t going to blow things past major league hitters with any consistency. Instead, he will thrive off his command.

Woods Richardson has an impressive 1.95 BB/9 this season, and he’s found the most success in the minor leagues when he’s been able to limit walks. By not issuing free passes Woods Richardson can get by with average to below average stuff. He isn’t going to be a league winner or Cy Young candidate, but Woods Richardson could hang around a major league rotation by throwing strikes and limiting walks. Unfortunately, regression is likely coming for Woods Richardson, who will have a hard time maintaining a 2.84 ERA when his .265 BABIP, 80% LOB rate, and 7.6% HR/FB ratio creep toward the league average. His SIERA is 3.98 and his xFIP is 4.09, and that’s likely where his ERA will land over a full season.

Verdict:

Woods Richardson has impressive control, but the bottom line is that his stuff is underwhelming and regression is likely coming. His fastball is average in terms of movement, spin, and velocity, and he doesn’t get whiffs with his secondary stuff consistently. His fantasy value is likely reduced to that of a streamer, though Woods Richardson isn’t a bad option in a pinch. He lacks the upside of someone like Taj Bradley, but he also lacks the same blowup potential that a pitcher like Bradley has. His next start comes Friday versus Oakland, and he’s a fine start in that game.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Uchenna Nwosu

Seahawks Place Uchenna Nwosu on PUP List
Taylor Decker

Alim McNeill, Taylor Decker Placed on PUP List
Tyrion Davis-Price

Titans Waive Tyrion Davis-Price
Tre Harris

Chargers Relying on Tre Harris to Be Starting X Receiver
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Micah Parsons

Will Become Highest-Paid Non-QB
MarShawn Lloyd

Vying for RB2 Role
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith Finds End Zone in First Training Camp Practice
Tyler Shough

Pushing for Fully Guaranteed Rookie Deal
Ar'Darius Washington

Goes on PUP List
Lamar Jackson

to be Even Better in 2025?
Tre Harris

Agrees to Terms on Rookie Deal
Justin Herbert

Off to Good Start at Training Camp
Jameson Williams

Earning Rave Reviews from Lions Coaches
Christian Mahogany

Expected to Start for Lions
Zach Allen

an Extension Candidate in Denver?
Zaire Franklin

May Miss Start of Training Camp
Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard Returning to Portland
Mason Taylor

to Play "Crucial" Role in Jets' Offense
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
T.J. Watt

Once Again Becomes Highest-Paid Non-QB
RJ Harvey

Reaches Agreement on Four-Year Rookie Contract
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Believe Rashee Rice Will Receive Two- to Four-Game Suspension
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
MLB

NL All-Stars Win On Tie-Breaker Home Run Swing-Off
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Oneil Cruz

Ties Home Run Derby Distance Record
Cal Raleigh

Wins 2025 Home Run Derby
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Michael Lorenzen

Royals Put Michael Lorenzen on Injured List With Oblique Strain
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Junior Tafa

Unsuccessful in his Light-Heavyweight Debut
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Tosses Gem Against Giants
Shota Imanaga

Shuts Down Yankees on Sunday
Nathan Eovaldi

Dominant Again in Seventh Win
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Chicago White Sox

Billy Carlson Goes 10th Overall to White Sox
Cincinnati Reds

Steele Hall Selected Ninth by Cincinnati
Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Select JoJo Parker with Eighth Overall Pick
Miami Marlins

Marlins Select Aiva Arquette With Seventh Overall Pick
Pittsburgh Pirates

Pirates Select Seth Hernandez with Sixth Overall Pick
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
Erik Karlsson

Open to Move Away From Pittsburgh
Zach Hyman

Hopes to be Ready for Start of Next Season
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF