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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchweek 13 of the 2021/22 season, starting on 11/27/2021. He breaks down the top English Premier League wagers, bets and picks for the soccer games
Last weekend was another case of "so near, yet so far". We bagged a profit in the Newcastle and Brentford game but would've had a huge game if Callum Wilson didn't have an effort cleared off the goalline. West Ham United let us down, losing 1-0 to Wolves. Jarrod Bowen had one effort on target, then two others that went close (including a header that went a couple of inches wide). If either effort went in or had hit the target, we'd have profited in that game. Then we had a marginal loss in the Burnley versus Crystal Palace game, despite picking the draw. Crystal Palace scored all of their three goals in the first half and none in the second half which consigned us to a narrow loss.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 47-71-7 (+3.61 U)
- Match results: 15-14
Saturday, November 27th, 2021
Wolves (+120) at Norwich City (+258) - 10:00 am ET
Wolves picked up an impressive win against West Ham last weekend and come into the weekend in sixth place. No team has conceded fewer goals than Wolves (12) outside of the top-3 teams in the league and they've lost just once in their last seven league games.
Norwich won their first game under new manager Dean Smith last weekend, beating Southampton 2-1 to make it back-to-back wins. That win lifted them off the bottom of the table despite having the fewest goals scored (seven) and tied-most conceded (27).
I don't foresee an easy game for Wolves but I see the away team having too much for Norwich and Wolves should pick up the three points. It could be a second-half winner for Wolves, which should come as no surprise given in their six away games this season, they have scored one first-half goal and six second-half goals.
I'm also taking some prop bets on Wolves striker Raul Jimenez. After suffering a career-threatening head injury over a year ago, Jimenez is beginning to look like his old self and has two goals in their three games. He's registered one shot in every game he's started this season and has one shot on target in each of his last four games.
I'll be backing Jimenez to at least test the Norwich goalkeeper in this one and wouldn't be surprised if he finds the back of the net in what could be a low-scoring affair.
Score prediction: Norwich City 0 - 1 Wolves
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Wolves (+120) 1 unit
- Highest scoring half - Second-half (+110) 1 unit
- Team to score second-half - Wolves (-125) 1.5 units
- Player to have 1+ shot on target - Raul Jimenez (-143) 1.5 units
- Anytime goalscorer - Raul Jimenez (+185) 0.5 units
Leeds United (+283) at Brighton (+111) - 12:30 pm ET
Two teams with recent struggles come into this one desperate for a win. Brighton has now gone seven games without a win, although they've only lost twice in that time with five draws. They've found the net just five times in that run and have conceded nine in their last four games.
Despite leading Tottenham at half-time last weekend, Leeds conceded twice in the second half to lose for the fifth time this season, although it was only their second defeat in their last six games. Their 12 goals scored is third-fewest in the league and although they've only failed to score once in their last eight games, they have only eight goals in that run.
This looks like being another tight game and I can't pick a winner, although I would give the away team a slight edge given the respective odds. I wouldn't be surprised to see it be a goalless game and certainly can't see it being a high-scoring affair. Although we will hedge with picking both teams to score, something that has happened in all of Leeds' last four games and in three of Brighton's last four games.
We'll also be playing the bookings in this game. Brighton's 31 yellow cards are second-most and Leeds' 28 are tied-third most. The referee for this one will be Craig Pawson who is averaging 3.5 yellow cards a game.
Brighton has received at least two bookings in their last nine games and in ten of their 12 games so far. Leeds has had two or more players booking in ten of their 12 games this season, including in all six away games so far. In what looks likely to be a close and edgy game, both teams to have two or more bookings appeals.
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Leeds United
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+247) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Leeds United (+160) 0.5 units
- Total goals - Under 2.5 (-106) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-150) 1.5 units
- Both teams total cards - Over 1.5 (+100) 1 unit
Sunday, November 28th 2021
Tottenham (+106) at Burnley (+275) - 9:00 am ET
Sunday sees free-scoring Burnley take on a stuttering Tottenham team. Burnley is unbeaten in their last four games (one win and three draws) and have scored nine goals in that run. Tottenham won their first league game since appointing Antonio Conte as Head Coach last weekend, coming from behind to beat Leeds.
As of half-time in that Leeds game, Tottenham had completed six consecutive halves of Premier League football without registering a shot on target. They also lost to Slovenian minnows Mura in the Europa Conference on Thursday so I can't bring myself to anoint them as being back to any sort of form on the back of one league win.
It may be hedging, but I'm looking at this being another draw. Burnley has only one clean sheet on the season and that came against Norwich City, the league's lowest scorers. I can see both teams scoring although I'm not convinced it'll be a high-scoring game.
Burnley's recent goalscoring form has been inspired by Sumer signing Maxwel Cornet, who has four goals in the last four games. In all his seven games (six starts), he's had at least one shot on target and although Leeds has struggled offensively recently, they still registered seven shots on target against them last weekend.
I'll be adding him in with Brentford's Ivan Toney for both players to register a shot on target. Toney has had a shot on target in five of his last six games and has totaled 29 shots in his last 11 games so if can parlay them together, the plus odds are really enticing.
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Tottenham
Betting Picks:
- Moneyline - Draw (+270) 0.5 units
- Both Teams to Score - Yes (-130) 1.5 units
- To score anytime - Maxwel Cornet (+230) 0.5 units
- Player to have 1+ shot on target - Maxwel Cornet (-125) 1.5 units
- Players to have 1+ shot on target - Parlay Ivan Toney (Brentford vs Everton) & Maxwel Cornet (+140) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
