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Kev Mahserejian gives his bold predictions for Week 11 of the NFL season to give fantasy football managers something to consider when setting lineups.
Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt, but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like you-know-what at a wall with the hope of sticking.
These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seem likely but are not guaranteed.
Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!
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D'Onta Foreman Scores Twice and Takes "Revenge" on Houston
Foreman began his career on the Houston Texans and looked to be the heir-apparent to Lamar Miller's backfield but was struck by the worst injury known to RBs: an achilles tear. Foreman was ruled out for the final six games of his rookie season, and then returned for one game in late 2018 where he produced -1 yards on 7 carries.
Foreman's career looked all but lost after he was waived. He floated between the Colts, Titans, and Falcons over the past three seasons, but fortuitously signed with Tennessee after Derrick Henry's foot injury. He has since looked like a decent back with an occasional flash, which is more than the Titans say from their RB corps of Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson.
McNichols is out for Sunday's game leaving AD and Foreman to carry the load against an extremely vulnerable Texans team. Given that this is Foreman's old squad and Tennessee's rival, it is fair to think he will be the one granted goal-line opportunities when they arrive -- just to stuff their nose in it, and add a storyline to what is likely a meaningless game for both the 8-2 Titans and 1-8 Texans.
Jets vs Dolphins One of Highest Scoring Games on Slate
This sounds stupid, but Joe Flacco might be an upgrade for the Jets' offense. Mike White was fun for five seconds, but his aDOT was among the lowest in the NFL, while Flacco last year as a Jet was slinging it an average of 11 yards! Miami's defense looked improved last week against a daunting Ravens' offense, but that was mostly due to them sending eight every play and throwing Lamar Jackson off in the backfield.
Overall, Miami's defense still ranks 27th in DVOA while the Jets are 31st. This game could be ugly, but in a fun way where points are scored. Tua Tagovailoa is coming off of a fractured finger but was ok enough to play halfway through last week's game. He is not as bad as his reputation paints him, and the weapons in Miami are good enough to drive down the field consistently against a bad defense. Points will be scored despite this game's lack of firepower.
Rashaad Penny Takes Over Seattle's Backfield
With Chris Carson ruled out for the season, Seattle's backfield is wide open. Alex Collins had been the primary back in Carson's absence, and should remain so for the near future, but he has not been good enough to hold back anyone behind him.
Rashaad Penny's NFL career thus far has been a notable failure but that is due to health, not talent. Penny has impressed on the field when given opportunities, and should have another one for the rest of this season. Over the past three weeks, Collins is averaging 3.3 ypc on 36 carries while hardly showing up as a receiving option. Penny has had some opportunity since his activation two weeks ago, but has not shown anything at all with 16 total yards on 13 carries.
However, we could give Penny a mulligan for getting his sea legs under him, and it is notable that Seattle has been giving him with a decent chunk of carries. They want to use every last bit of him before he hits free agency, and rightfully so given that he has missed nearly half of his games as a Seahawk.
Taylor Heinicke Outscores Cam Newton
We all witnessed the return of Cam Newton last week and were provided an absolute show with his throwback performances at the goal-line. Unfortunately, this week Newton will be tasked with driving the ball down the field multiple times rather than being gifted goal-line opportunities.
Newton is still fairly talented, and can do his fair share -- but after missing all of the season up until last week, and only re-joining the Panthers a few days prior, it is hard to fathom his capabilities in a new system this quick. Yes, Newton has basically been the system of an offense before in his heydey, but he can only "YOLO" so much before the defense forces three-and-outs.
Washington's front is its biggest strength and will be causing havoc on one of the NFL's worst OLs in pass pro. Carolina's line has given up the 2nd most pressure in the NFL according to PFF, and has absolutely no answer inside for the vicious duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne.
Wahington's offense, being as run-heavy as it is, will put together multiple drives down the field against a vulnerable Panthers rush defense, and give Heinicke opportunities to capitalize in the red zone. Heinicke's been a fine fantasy contributor this year as QB17 in PPG, and should out-do the flashier name of Newton on Sunday.
Baker Mayfield Throws 4 TDs Keeping "Haters" Quiet Until Next Disgusting Outing
Baker Mayfield is not very good, as the world should know by now, but he will absolutely come out firing at home against one of the league's worst defenses a week removed from the Browns' worst loss of the season. New England stomped Cleveland last week 45-7 and brought up the same questions that get asked every week, "Is Baker a 'Franchise QB'?". The answer is no, but these questions are going to be asked regardless, and he probably ends up getting paid due to the scarcity of even competent NFL QBs in the world.
Fortunately, the Lions are a doormat, starting a backup QB who produced a 1:2 TD to INT ratio in college (a truly impressive feat for someone in the league). Detroit will provide opportune field position throughout the game for Cleveland, which Mayfield and the squad can capitalize on. Nick Chubb will likely be the Browns' leader in yards, as he usually is, but just for the sake of getting Mayfield's confidence back, it is possible Cleveland throws in the red zone.
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