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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 NFL Preseason kicked off with the Hall of Fame Game last week and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NFL, Single Stat consists of quarterback passing yards, running back rushing yards, and wide receiver receiving yards in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option.
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Single Stat NFL_FUT Totals
Patrick Mahomes over 5,050.5 passing yards - This is a huge number, but I think Mahomes can surpass it after throwing for 4,740 passing yards in 16 games in 2020. While I am notably not a huge fan of the Tyreek Hill over receiving yards prop, I do think Mecole Hardman continues his emergence this season after increasing his targets, receptions, and yards from season one to season two. The Chiefs also have a ton of soft defensive matchups in 2021, which should help Mahomes get over this total. They will face the Raiders and Broncos twice who ranked sixth-worst and eighth-worst, respectively in terms of passing yards per game allowed to the quarterback. Mahomes and the Chiefs will also get solid matchups against the Titans (ninth-worst) and Bengals (13th-worst). They will also face some high-octane offenses, which could result in shootouts against the Browns, Ravens, Bills, Titans, Packers, and Cowboys.
Josh Allen over 4,450.5 passing yards - This seems like a solid spot to play Josh Allen over, assuming he is able to stay healthy all season. Allen threw for 4,544 passing yards in 2020 across 16 games and still has a ton of weapons at his disposal and has a shaky rushing attack behind him, which should lead to more passing attempts in this 17-game season. While the Bills did lose John Brown in the offseason, they did add Emmanuel Sanders and still have the likes of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and capable wide receivers in Gabriel Davis and Isaiah McKenzie. Allen will get four combined matchups between the Jets and Dolphins who ranked fifth-worst and 14th-worst in terms of passing yards allowed to the position in 2020. He will also get matchups against the Falcons (worst), Texans (fourth-worst), Titans (ninth-worst), and Jaguars (10th-worst).
Jared Goff under 4,000.5 passing yards - Goff is in a very tough spot heading into 2021 with the Lions. He was unable to go over this total in 2020 across 15 games as he threw for just 3,952 yards. In Los Angeles, he had the likes of Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Josh Reynolds. Now, he enters Detroit with no Kenny Golladay and has the likes of Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, T.J. Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Quite frankly, 4,000 passing yards is going to be a tall task in this offense. Aside from the lack of potent weapons around him, Goff will also have to go up against some tough defenses in 2021. He will face the Vikings twice who ranked sixth-best in terms of passing yards allowed to the quarterback. He will also face the Rams (best), Steelers (second-best), Browns (eighth-best), 49ers (ninth-best), and Eagles (12th-best). DeAndre Swift being in this offense and in his second season should also reduce the workload for Goff and help the under as the season moves along.
Ryan Tannehill over 4,200.5 passing yards - While Tannehill did not reach this total in 2020 as he threw for 3,819 yards, the Titans added a major weapon in Julio Jones, and Tannehill has the additional game to go over this total. It will likely be close as we know Derrick Henry will get his carries, but this number is too juicy not to take a stab at, especially when you consider the pass defenses within the AFC South. The Texans, Colts, and Jaguars all ranked in the bottom 10 in terms of passing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2020. He will also have superb matchups against the Seahawks (second-worst), Jets (fifth-worst), and Cardinals (12th-worst).
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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