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Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller for the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the Northern Trust!
In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the 2021 Northern Trust. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options that are worth considering.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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2021 Northern Trust - PGA DFS Overview
Liberty National GC
7,410 Yards - Par 71 - Greens: Bentgrass - Designers: Robert E. Cupp, Tom Kite
After making its PGA Tour debut back in 2009 to less-than-stellar reviews from the players (Tiger Woods famously trashed the course), LNGC underwent a pretty drastic renovation in 2010 in an effort to improve its playability. Things have been improved and the 2013 Barclays, 2017 Presidents Cup, and 2019 Northern Trust went off without a hitch. While Liberty is easier now than it was originally, it's certainly not a pushover. As Patrick Reed's 16-under par winning score in the 2019 Northern Trust illustrates, birdies are possible, but not a given. Frequent and unpredictable winds off the New York harbor can wreak havoc on golfer's rounds, as the course has few trees and is exposed to the wind. Accuracy both off the tee and on approach is required to score. I probably sound like a broken record at this point in the year, but ball striking will once again be of the utmost importance this week and will be my main focus when identifying DFS plays.
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Liberty National | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 286 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 67% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 61% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 60% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.38 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Greens In Regulation Gained
- Total Driving
- SG: Ball Striking
- Par-5 Scoring
- Birdies or Better Gained
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Jon Rahm ($12,000)
After being forced to withdraw from the Olympics due to his second positive COVID-19 test of the season, Jon Rahm is set to return to action for this week's Northern Trust. The Spaniard has put together a dazzling year that included his first major championship win at the U.S. Open. It appears the only thing that can slow him down is COVID complications. When he's on the course, Rahm has been a force and hasn't finished outside of the top-10 in any tournament since May. He ranks second in this week's field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 50 rounds and that elite all-around ability should serve him well on this Liberty National layout where he notched a T3 in the 2019 edition of the Northern Trust.
Jordan Spieth ($11,900)
Jordan Spieth has truly been a statistical marvel since finding his form early in the year. Over the last 50 rounds he grades out first in this Northern Trust field in both SG: Total and DraftKings points scored. The Texan narrowly missed capping his 2021 return to form off with a major at the Open Championship, but I imagine that $15 million and a FedEx Cup title would be a nice consolation prize. He's been rock solid in his two previous stroke-play starts at Liberty National, posting a T6 (while in horrible form) in 2019 and a T19 in the 2013 Barclays. Spieth also performed well as a member of the 2017 U.S. President's Cup team with a record of 3-1-1 on the Jersey City layout.
Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
McIlroy continues to tantalize us with supreme ball striking and horrible putting, as a bad opening round and so-so T12 finish in his most recent start at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude don't paint a full picture of just how well he hit the ball in Memphis. He gained an eye-popping 5.9 strokes OTT, as well as a massive 6.5 strokes on Approach at St. Jude, but was once again derailed by a balky short game. McIlroy has now gained strokes T2G, OTT, and on Approach in each of his last six starts...impressive stuff. This Liberty National layout caters to supreme ball striking and with his recent tee-to-green form the two-time FedEx Cup champion appears primed for another postseason run.
Daniel Berger ($10,800)
The FSU alum isn't the flashiest player on the PGA Tour, but don't sleep on Daniel Berger over the next three weeks. Berger has been a silent killer over the last two months, recording top-10 finishes in both the U.S. and British Opens, as well as a T5 in his most recent outing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. He wasn't in the field for the 2019 Northern Trust at Liberty National, but the Jersey City layout profiles as a great fit, as Berger grades out first in this elite field in SG: Approach over the last 12 rounds and fourth in overall Ball Striking.
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Plays
Webb Simpson ($10,300)
It's not a shock to find that Webb Simpson has been a "Steady Eddie" on this golf course, as he seemingly has a consistently great track record at every course on the schedule. Simpson has gone T18-T15 over two starts at Liberty National and comes into this year's Northern Trust fresh off his best statistical iron performance of 2021. He gained a ridiculous 8.5 strokes on Approach at Sedgefield and ultimately fell just one shot shy of the massive playoff. After an underwhelming summer, Webb appears to be trending in the right direction just in time for the Playoffs and has steadily improved his finishing position in each of his last three starts.
Paul Casey ($10,200)
Like the aforementioned Daniel Berger, Paul Casey has been under-the-radar great this year. The trouble with Casey is that he's rarely hoisting a trophy when the tournament's over. So while there are legitimate win equity concerns that come with rostering him, the Englishman's consistency shouldn't be ignored. He hasn't missed a cut since April and comes into the week off a T5 in Memphis two weeks ago. Casey grades out second in this elite field in Overall Proximity over the last 12 rounds. A notoriously spotty putter, Bentgrass is his best surface historically, as he actually gains an average of .16 strokes per round on Bent.
Harris English ($9,800)
How will Harris English bounce back from a back-nine collapse at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude two weeks ago? That's my only concern with the former Georgia Bulldog this week, as from a statistical perspective, he feels underpriced here. English has been on a tear as of late, gaining strokes T2G in each of his last seven starts. Those outings include a win at the Travelers, the near-miss in Memphis, and a T3 at the U.S. Open. His solid all-around game should translate well to this Liberty National layout. If we're willing to ignore the possibility of a psychological hangover from his Sunday misadventure in Memphis, this play makes tons of sense on paper.
Adam Scott ($9,600)
Thought I'd list Adam Scott with Harris English, as the concern with both this week is how they'll handle the disappointment from their previous outings. The Aussie also comes into the week fresh off his best performance of the year in last week's Wyndham Championship, an event that he should've won, but ultimately settled for a share of second place after missing a four-ish foot putt on the opening playoff hole. While there might be some emotional hangover after last week's close call, it was Scotty's best outing in nearly six months from a statistical perspective. The sweet swinger's normally-terrific irons have been mysteriously missing this year, but he gained a massive 6.9 strokes on Approach at Sedgefield (his best mark since the Honda in March), while also gaining 9.4 strokes T2G and finishing in the plus column in every major strokes gained category. Much will be made of his short miss in the playoff last week, but Scott has actually been excellent on the greens this year and has gained strokes putting in each of his last seven starts.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,500)
Simply a great "buy low" spot on a quality player here with Tyrrell Hatton at $9.5k. This is a reasonable price tag for the Englishman that played like a man possessed throughout 2020, but has cooled a bit in recent months. Ability doesn't just go away and a solid T17 outing in Memphis indicates that Hatton could be getting things turned around just in time for the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Corey Conners ($9,300)
The Canadian was white-hot in the early stages of 2021, but hit a bit of lull in June, posting forgettable outings at the Memorial and U.S. Open. However, Conners reminded us just how capable of a ball striker he his with a deep run at the Open Championship that resulted in a T15. Ball strikers have historically thrived at Liberty National, and while he hasn't completely returned to his form from earlier in the year, Conners is still one of the best pure strikers in the game today.
Kevin Streelman ($8,600)
The veteran is another player that fits in this week's theme of "very good long-term form, but has experienced a few hiccups recently". Streelman has played some of the best golf of his life this year, posting a top-10 at the PGA Championship, as well as top-20s at both the U.S. and British Opens. However, he also tossed in a couple of missed cuts as a popular DFS play at the Travelers and John Deere. Those outings were just enough to keep Streelman somewhat off the radar and a T7 performance last week at the Wyndham tells me that this is one of the better values on the slate. Nothing fancy here, just a sound overall game that's helped him to gain an average of 3.6 strokes T2G over his last five tournaments.
Jhonattan Vegas ($8,300)
We'll close out the week with Jhonny Vegas, a player that offers us a lot of bang for the buck. Vegas has quietly put together a very strong stretch of golf over the last two months, notching a pair of runner-up finishes (Palmetto & 3M), as well as two top-15 results. The Colombian has been a streaky player throughout his career and is certainly in a nice groove at the moment. He's gained strokes both T2G and on Approach in five consecutive starts. Vegas grades out seventh in this week's Northern Trust in SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds and even though this is a stacked field, he shouldn't be underestimated this week, as I believe he brings legit tournament-winning upside to the table.
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