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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at WR Michael Thomas, RB Darrell Henderson, and TE Robert Tonyan.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
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Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Age: 28
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank: WR15
Updated Rank: WR43
During a surprise announcement, it was revealed that Saints WR Michael Thomas had “clean up” ankle surgery in June. The initial timetable for Thomas is likely three to four months. In 2020 startup drafts, Thomas was the WR1, routinely getting drafted as a first-round pick in all formats. Unfortunately, Thomas had a disappointing year riddled with injuries. Fantasy managers wrote it off as an unfortunate “land mine” in the first round, fully expecting MT to regain his WR1 status in 2021. The draft market was colder than expected on Michael Thomas. He dropped to around WR15. The drafters were either fading him completely or proclaiming Thomas to be “a great value.”
Fading injury optimism is the optimal way to play fantasy football. Even if Thomas gets activated by Week 8, he will likely need a few games to get up to speed and be on the same page as whoever the new QB will be. Next season when Thomas will presumably be back to full health, he will be 29-years-old.
The bull case for Thomas is that he did have chemistry with Taysom Hill last year and if you can hold him on your IR, he should be a significant starter again for fantasy. The days of 115 catches in a season are likely over for MT, but he can be an anchor player in leagues where you need to start three WRs. It is reasonable to trade for 80 cents on the dollar if you do not want to wait it out. We have seen Thomas traded for players like Deebo Samuel and DeVonta Smith.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Age: 23
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: RB45
Updated Rank: RB25
Rams star RB Cam Akers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in July. The direct fantasy beneficiary is third-year runner Darrell Henderson. Henderson is the obvious big mover up the dynasty rankings. There is justifiable market skepticism about Henderson’s ability to be a workhorse running back in the NFL. Based on his updated fifth-round ADP, fantasy players believe the Rams will not allocate all of the Cam Akers touches directly to Henderson.
Darrell Henderson has flash over his first two seasons but does not have the requisite size of a typical every-down NFL RB. At 5’8” and 200 lbs, Henderson makes for a quality “slasher” with big-play upside. In redraft leagues, his fifth-round ADP is reasonable, but his dynasty outlook is much murkier. RosterWatch is not proactively drafting Henderson unless he falls to us at a value.
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Age: 26
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank: TE12
Updated Rank: TE8
The case to move Robert Tonyan up the dynasty rankings is clear. Aaron Rodgers will play in Green Bay for the 2021 season. All bets are off after that.
With few exceptions, the tight end landscape changes dramatically year to year. Tonyan proved he was a favorite red-zone target for Rodgers. Though Tonyan did score an eye-popping 11 touchdowns on only 59 targets, he is still a nice bet to flirt with double-digit scores in 2021.
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