Rookie Report: Prospect Risers and Fallers for Week 14

July 3, 2021

Fantasy baseball prospects recently called up, and their rest of season projections. Phil Goyette evaluates rising and falling fantasy baseball rookies for Week 13.

Welcome to the latest edition of RotoBaller’s Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball! Here I discuss some recently promoted MLB prospects and rookies , making note of what I think their upside could be for fantasy baseball managers, and whether they are potential risers or fallers.

We have seen 150 rookies make their MLB debut in 2021. This week saw a couple new pitchers make their MLB debut, along with a left-handed slugger that could hit his way to relevance in redraft leagues for the second half of the season. I will use video looks, scouting reports, analytics, and RotoBaller’s premium projections to predict what each recently called-up player could do if given a continued opportunity in 2021.

Here are your recently promoted prospects for Week 14 of the fantasy baseball season.

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Max Kranick, Pittsburgh Pirates

3% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: Max Kranick was called-up for a spot start this week for the Pirates before being sent back down to Triple-A Indianapolis. It was an eventful MLB debut, as Kranick pitched a perfect game through five innings before his start was shortened by a rain delay.

Skill: Kranick was an 11th round selection by the Pirates in the 2016 draft as a prep pitcher out of Pennsylvania. He's been steady if a bit unspectacular during his minor league career, regularly posting FIPs in the 4.00 range. He's primarily a fastball/slider guy. The fastball is a four-seamer that sits around 94 mph with below-average spin. He will need to spot the pitch effectively in and out while keeping it high in the zone. He did this very effectively during his first start. The slider is a harder breaker (86-87 mph) with good depth. It pairs well with the fastball and should generate whiffs. He also will show a slower 12-to-6 curveball and changeup, primarily using these offerings against left-handed batters.

Projection: Kranick got shuttled back down to Triple-A after his debut. I don't believe the Pirates have a pressing need for him in the MLB rotation at the moment, so there's no reason to be holding him in redraft formats. In the event that he moves back into the rotation, he's definitely a streaming option, even in leagues as shallow as 12 teams.

Gavin Sheets, Chicago White Sox

3% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The White Sox have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, causing the team to dip into the farm system and have players playing out of position to cover the lineup on a daily basis. To wit, left-handed hitting first-baseman Gavin Sheets made his MLB debut as the club's right fielder this week. Sheets was the team's second round selection in the 2017 draft.

Skill: Sheets has always had a patient plate approach. He consistently posts excellent BB:K ratios and has a knack for finding the barrel when he swings. The knock on Sheets throughout his minor league career is that his game power hasn't matched the raw power he can produce from his large (6'4", 230 lbs) frame. You can see from his estimated xwOBA and Barrel% rates throughout his minor league career that he has, indeed, developed more game power as his career has progressed:

Projection: There's an everyday spot on the team for Sheets at the moment. That calculus will change over the next month or so as the team gets Eloy Jimenez back in the fold. Sheets is seeing the ball well, and barreling it an exciting clip at the MLB level so far (14.3% barrel rate). He could be a cheap source of AVG, OBP, HR, and RBI over the next month in deeper formats or mono leagues.

Thomas Szapucki, New York Mets

0% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The Mets called-up left-handed reliever Thomas Szapucki to make his MLB debut out of the bullpen this week. Szapucki, 25, was the Mets 5th round pick in the 2015 draft.

Skill: Szapucki is likely a reliever at the MLB level. His first appearance for the Mets came as a swingman, which you might see more of from him in 2021. But I think long term he settles in as a left-handed specialist reliever. He was fastball heavy in his first outing, and the fastball only sat around 90.7 mph. It will be a big task for him to be more than a change of pace guy with that kind of fastball velo. His changeup can be an effective pitch to get whiffs in the MLB. His breaker is a slower (upper 70s) curveball with good depth and some two-plane tilt.

Projection: Szapucki is not likely to hold much value in redraft leagues this season. There's a chance that he gets some spot starts, but I think he's most likely going to be a low-leverage reliever who maybe makes some bulk innings appearances in a swingman type role.

Aaron Ashby, Milwaukee Brewers

1% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The Brewers called up lefty Aaron Ashby to make a spot start last week. It went very poorly for him, as he only managed to get two outs and currently holds a career 54.00 MLB ERA. He was optioned back to Triple-A following his start.

Skill: Ashby has been on my radar for some time as his stuff is really good. While his MLB debut was poor, an encouraging sign was that his fastball sat at 96 mph during the start. His slider is a filthy offering that should punch out plenty of hitters once he finds his footing. He also flashed a changeup with some good vertical drop. Ashby was fine against MLB hitters during spring training, so I think if the team brings him back up in a role that suits his stuff a little better (aka a long reliever), he can have some success this year.

Projection: I would be surprised to see the Brewers rely on Ashby in the rotation again this year unless they suffer another rash of pitching injuries. His best fit is likely as a tough look out of the bullpen. Therefore, for redraft leagues Ashby holds little to no value in 2021.

Jake Burger, Chicago White Sox

5% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: Yoan Moncada bruised his hand stealing a bag earlier this week. So, the White Sox turned to Jake Burger to make his MLB debut and cover 3rd base in Moncada's absence. Early season fantasy hero Yermin Mercedes was optioned back to Triple-A to make room for Burger.

Skill: Jake Burger was the White Sox 1st round draft pick in the 2017 draft. He tore his achilles trying to beat out a grounder during a spring training game in February of 2018. He underwent surgery, and then subsequently re-tore his achilles later that May. He then missed the entire 2019 season with a heel injury. Amazingly, Burger persisted with baseball through this rollercoaster and was hitting very well at Triple-A (.322/.368/.596). He's got a good eye and approach at the plate, with enough pop to do some damage. He's especially potent against left-handed pitching. The team had him handle some second base at Triple-A this spring, trying to add some positional versatility to his game.

Projection: Burger should be able to fill in at third-base while Moncada is out, but that should only be for a handful of games. The bigger question for White Sox fans and fantasy owners is whether Burger could be a solution at second base with Nick Madrigal out for the season. In the event that Burger gets something approximating regular playing time, he could be a sneaky source of fantasy value with some pop and positional versatility.

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