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Joe Nicely breaks down the FanDuel slate for the Sentry TOC, providing information of not only who will come into the week under-owned but also who should be avoided for your lineups.
Hello RotoBaller PGA crew! It's great to be back with you guys and I appreciate you joining us here at RotoBaller!
After a brief holiday break, we're set to kick off 2021 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The Maui-based tournament is traditionally a "winners only" event, but due to COVID this year's Sentry field will include not only those players that won tournaments last year, but also any player that qualified for the 2020 TOUR Championship. This is a 42-man field and there is no 36-hole cut this week. In this article we'll discuss some of the standout PGA DFS plays available on FanDuel for the Sentry TOC. While it's impossible to hit on every player, we'll touch on some different plays across all price ranges, breaking the groups down into "High", "Mid", and "Low" price options.
Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for FanDuel, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Sentry TOC - PGA DFS Overview
Plantation Course at Kapalua
7,596 Yards - Par 73 - Greens: Bermuda - Designers: Coore/Crenshaw
The Plantation Course sits at the foot of the West Maui Mountains and incorporates drastic elevation changes into the layout. We will see some of the longest drives of the season this week, as players will have several downhill tee shots. We are dealing with a rare Par 73 course that features four Par-5s. Weather conditions, specifically the wind, can sometimes be a factor at Kapalua, but the conditions are usually mild to moderate enough to allow for very low scoring. For an extensive, in-depth look at Kapalua, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown, an article by Josh Bennett that uses Google Earth images to dissect every hole of this week's layout.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Plantation Course | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 288 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 73% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 78% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 55% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.88 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity: 125-150 Yards
- Birdie or Better %
- Driving Distance
- Three-Putt Avoidance
- Putting: Bermuda Greens
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for FanDuel (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event including DFS lineup picks for DraftKings/FanDuel, betting advice and DFS prop picks.
High-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Dustin Johnson ($12,200)
The first thing that jumps out at me this week is the FanDuel salary scale itself. Normally, we can catch some really soft pricing on FD, but with an elite field of just 42 players, nothing immediately jumps out as a "terrific price play". With such a small field, the traditional "high", "mid", and "low" price ranges that we touch on in this article are all relative this week.
It's no surprise to find Dustin Johnson atop the salary scale this week, as DJ recently wrapped up one of the most dominant runs in the history of the PGA Tour over the last few months of 2020. Many in the DFS industry are predicting that Johnson will "take a step back" this year. While I understand the reasoning behind those predictions, I'm not buying it, as he's been a consistent winner since turning pro in 2008. He's been extremely successful in this week's TOC event, winning it twice and finishing inside the top-10 in each of last EIGHT starts at Kapalua! Although he carries the highest price tag on the slate, this week weirdly feels like a "buy low" opportunity on DJ from an ownership perspective.
Justin Thomas ($12,000)
While I expect DJ to go a bit underowned, I look for Justin Thomas' ownership to be massive this week. It's tough to argue with rostering him, as he's the defending champion of this event and a two-time winner at Kapalua. Thomas finished the 2019-20 season ranked first in SG: T2G on the PGA Tour, but ranked just 112th in SG: Putting. It's not a stretch to imagine JT posting a huge 2021 if he can find just a bit more consistency with the putter and the large bermuda greens on this course have been very good to him over the years.
Jon Rahm ($11,800)
Rahm had a tremendous 2020 and has never finished outside of the top-10 in three career Sentry TOC starts, so there's obviously a lot to love about the Spaniard this week. However, be it reasonable or not, I do have a nagging concern about his recently announced equipment change from TaylorMade to Callaway.
Call me crazy, but equipment changes spook me. Most of the time everything works out fine, but occasionally it's a disaster. Remember when Rory switched to Nike? Rose going to Honma (an unbelievably ill-timed move that he's never recovered from)? I'm sure Rahm will be fine in the long run, but it is something of an X-factor this week. I could see him either winning this tournament or maybe sputtering a bit while adjusting to his new sticks in competitive conditions. All in all, the equipment change is enough for me to be underweight on him in comparison to the field.
Bryson DeChambeau ($11,600)
Bombs away!!! DeChambeau and Kapalua are like mixing fire and gasoline...we're gonna see an explosion. The Beefy Boi will probably log some 400-plus yard drives on this course, but it's the second shots that I'm concerned about, as I believe Bryson's wedge play will be the deciding factor in his success or failure this week.
Over the last 50 rounds DeChambeau ranks 41st in this week's 42-man field in proximity from 125-150 yards. Not great. However, he has shown that he can overcome this glitch in some recent performances where he's went ham and led the field in both driving and putting en route to victories. If you're rostering Bryson it's not for his consistency, but for his ability to dominate on the weeks when everything is clicking...that's certainly a possibility this week and he's a high-upside GPP option.
Xander Schauffele ($11,400)
A true course-history beast, Xander has went T2-Win in his last two Sentry TOC starts. He owns a 69.58 career scoring average at Kapalua and enters 2021 highly motivated after several "near misses" last year. All of these factors will add up to Schauffele's ownership being extremely high - high enough that a calculated fade in GPPs makes sense - but sometimes you just have to swallow the chalk, which is probably the direction I'll go with Xander this week.
Patrick Reed ($11,200)
We'll round out this week's lengthy "high priced" section with Patrick Reed, a player that's always tough to peg from week to week, but one that's been consistently excellent on this Kapalua layout. Reed has a win and two runner-up finishes in six career Sentry starts, as well as a 69.50 career scoring average in this event. He grades out well long-term in all statistical categories that we're targeting this week...SG: Par-5s (fourth in the field), SG: Par-4s (eighth), Birdies or Better Gained (sixth), Proximity from 125-150 (sixth), and Three-Putt Avoidance on Bermuda (third). I'm often gun-shy when it comes to Reed, but I'm on board in this spot.
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Mid-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,800)
The player with the lowest career Sentry TOC scoring average in this week’s field isn’t Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, or Xander Schauffele...it’s Hideki Matsuyama. ‘Deki has been masterful in three career starts at Kapalua, never posting a finish worse than fourth, while amassing a 68.58 scoring average on this beautiful layout.
As we enter a new year, the same old question seems to surround Hideki...can he make enough putts to win? Putting is the most erratic statistical category that we face in DFS - and that’s especially the case with a player like Matsuyama that ranked an abysmal 170th in SG: Putting last year - but he’s been very comfortable on Kapalua’s bermuda greens in previous visits, which makes me higher-than-normal on his chances to actually book a win this week.
Viktor Hovland ($10,400)
One of my favorite young players on Tour, Hovland closed out 2020 with a win at Mayakoba for his second victory of the year. He'll be making his Kapalua debut this week, which is really the only drawback I see that comes with rostering him. The youngster is both an explosive scorer and tremendous ball striker, he ranks second in the field in proximity from the key 125-150 yard range and stands seventh in SG: Par 4s. Lots of upside here and with no cut he'll be able to rack up FD points for us over four guaranteed rounds.
Collin Morikawa ($10,100)
After his unbelievable PGA Championship win, 2020 ended in rather quiet fashion for Collin Morikawa. He mustered just one top-10 finish in eight post-PGA starts and the culprit isn't tough to figure out, as he completely lost the ability to make putts. Morikawa lost strokes putting in each of his last four 2020 starts, but the silver lining is that he's shown a tendency to be a "streaky" rather than "bad" putter, so I could see him rolling it better this week and surprising folks. He logged a T7 in his Sentry debut last year, ranks sixth in overall proximity and third from 125-150 yards. It feels like he's getting lost in the shuffle a bit this week and I like him as a contrarian GPP play.
Cameron Smith ($9,400)
There's a lot to like with Cameron Smith this week. He performed well enough in his lone TOC start in 2018, but if we squint our eyes hard enough, we can find from his record in the Sony Open (Win, T22, T18, T27) that he's extremely comfortable in the breezy Hawaiian conditions, as most Aussies are. We expect the conditions to suit Smith, but we must also consider that this is a player that closed out 2020 on an absolute heater. He ran off 11 straight made cuts at the end of the year, posting a T4 at the ZOZO and a runner-up finish at the Masters in his last two starts of '20 on the strength of vastly improved iron play. I look for him to carry all that positive momentum into 2021.
Adam Scott ($9,000)
While he doesn't stick out as a "slam dunk" value, Adam Scott feels really reasonable at this $9k price tag. He's an Aussie, which we like in the wind, and he's also extremely sharp with the wedges. Scott grades out ninth from 100-125 yards and 10th from 125-150 yards...ranges he should see repeatedly this week. We know he's not a "good" putter, but he historically navigates large, slopey greens well (think Augusta). Like Morikawa, it feels like Scott will go overlooked on this slate.
Low-Priced FanDuel DFS Players
Cameron Champ ($8,600)
I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thing, but I've been a little slow-to-warm on Cameron Champ, rarely rostering him in DFS, as the consistency just isn't there yet. However, I'm intrigued this week due to the Sentry's no-cut format and his ability to bomb away at Kapalua. It actually surprised me to find that Champ gained strokes T2G in nine of his last 10 starts of 2020 and in hindsight he put together a really year-end stretch with a top-10 at the PGA Championship and a top-20 at the Masters. He's posted decent finishes in his two previous Sentry starts and I like the upside if he gets the putter going this week.
Marc Leishman ($7,900)
Leishman is obviously priced for his horribly-bad 2020 play, but I'm optimistic that he'll bounce back this year. While Leishman’s play since the restart was shockingly bad, he did close out the calendar year in encouraging fashion with a T13 at the Masters, his best result since the COVID layoff. We can hope that the vet’s solid finish to the year - along with plenty of time to reset and find his swing - sends him into 2021 looking more like the Liesh we saw at the beginning of 2020. As I've touched on a couple of times throughout this week's article, I'm always eager to target Aussies in windy conditions and the Sentry TOC shapes up as a nice spot to kick off the comeback tour, as he’s went T7-T4 in his two Kapalua starts since 2016.
Ryan Palmer ($7,700)
Sometimes when we get down into the cheaper price range there's a guy that sticks out as a "feel" play. That's where I am with Ryan Palmer this week, as he's inconsistent, but can pop for high finishes on occasion. He's a Texan that's comfortable playing in the wind and grades out an impressive fifth in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds. When we get into this value price point, I'm simply searching for upside and Palmer certainly has the ability to post a top-five this week if he gets things going.
Lanto Griffin ($7,200)
While he's not a top-tier talent relative to this week's field, Lanto Griffin seems to always get a little disrespect from FanDuel's pricing algorithm. He's a tremendous wedge player and ranks FIRST in the field in proximity from 125-150 yards over the last 24 rounds. Griffin didn't look out of place in his Sentry debut last year, posting a rock-solid 13th place finish at Kapalua, and we'd certainly take that type of outing at this week's $7.2k price tag.
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