Coaching Matters: Offenses That Will Improve From Week 4

October 7, 2020

Eli Grabanski analyzes disappointing offensive performances from Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season to find teams that will improve at RB, WR, and TE for fantasy football purposes based on playcalling tendencies and historical data.

This series continues into its fourth week of where I dive into offensive areas that will improve or decline based on coaching in order to glean insight as to fantasy football value.

In Week 4, we saw performances such as the Arizona Cardinals wide receivers only totalling 67 receiving yards, the Cleveland Browns running backs taking 35 carries for 228 rushing yards, and the Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers catching 20 passes for 271 receiving yards. After these performances, it's important to look at each of these team's coaches and their play-calling tendencies to see if these performances are likely to continue, if they will change for the better, or if they will change for the worse.

This article will take a look at which of these areas are in line for improvement in future weeks. Let's dive in!

Improvements Ahead?

These are the areas and positions that will likely improve in the coming weeks, based on the team's play-caller tendencies in the past.

Dallas Cowboys Running Backs - Run Game

Mike McCarthy & Kellen Moore

The Dallas Cowboys lost 49-38 to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. While the passing game was great with Dak Prescott throwing for 502 passing yards, the run game did not perform to the level we have expected out of this team in the Ezekiel Elliott era. In this game, the Cowboys running backs took 15 carries for 70 rushing yards and a touchdown. Through the air, they had nine receptions on 10 targets for 87 receiving yards.

After this performance, on the season the Cowboys running back room is averaging 19.25 carries, 76.25 rushing yards, one rushing touchdowns, seven receptions (on 9.25 targets), 48.75 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to what their coaches, Mike McCarthy and Kellen Moore, have traditionally gotten out of their backfield. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has had his running backs average 21.17 carries, 89.18 rushing yards, 0.57 rushing touchdowns, 5.38 targets, 31.44 receiving yards, and 0.10 receiving touchdowns per game in the 304 games he coached (as either a head coach or an offensive coordinator) prior to this season.

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore had only been an offensive coordinator for 16 games prior to this season. In this time, his running backs combined to average 24.19 carries, 113.25 rushing yards, 0.88 rushing touchdowns per game, 5.69 targets, 32.94 receiving yards, and 0.19 receiving touchdowns.

Based on these coaches' previous history of utilizing the position, expect an increase in carries and rushing yards for the Dallas Cowboys running backs in the future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard

Detroit Lions Running Backs - Run Game

Darrell Bevell

The Detroit Lions lost to the New Orleans Saints 35-29. In the game, the Lions running backs didn't see as much usage or produce as many yards as we are used to seeing, putting up 18 carries, 67 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, five receptions (on seven targets), 33 receiving yards, and a receiving touchdown. Now on the season the Lions running back room is averaging 21.75 carries, 89.5 rushing yards, 0.75 rushing touchdowns, 4.75 receptions (6.25 targets), 43 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now compare this to Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and his running back room historically. In the 208 games he coached as an offensive coordinator prior to this season, Bevell's RB room averaged 24.06 carries, 104.92 rushing yards, 0.73 rushing touchdowns, 5.63 targets, 35.75 receiving yards, and 0.14 receiving touchdowns per game.

While we should expect better usage and yardage from Sunday's performance, overall the season totals are roughly in line with what we should expect from a Darrell Bevell offense.

Fantasy players this impacts: D'Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson

Miami Dolphins Running Backs - Run Game

Chan Gailey

In Sunday's 31-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the Miami Dolphins running backs ended up totalling 15 carries, 51 rushing yards, seven receptions, 58 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. On the season the Dolphins running backs have combined to average 21 carries, 69.5 rushing yards, 0.75 rushing touchdowns, 6.25 receptions (seven targets), and 40 receiving yards per game.

Now let's compare this to Chan Gailey's historical production at the position. Over the 224 games he coached prior, Gailey's RB room averaged 24.57 carries, 102.93 rushing yards, 0.66 rushing touchdowns, 30.04 receiving yards, and 0.15 receiving touchdowns per game.

Based on Gailey's previous success at the position, Sunday's performance on the ground will be improved upon in the future.

Fantasy players this impacts: Myles Gaskin, Jordan Howard, and Matt Breida

Los Angeles Chargers Running Backs - Touchdowns

Anthony Lynn

The Los Angeles Chargers lost to Tom Brady's Buccaneers in a high-scoring matchup, 38-31. In the game, the Chargers struggled to get their running backs involved as they totalled 17 carries, 28 rushing yards, six receptions (on six targets), 40 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. On the year, they are averaging 27.25 carries, 108.75 rushing yards, 0.5 rushing touchdowns, 6.5 receptions (6.5 targets), and 60 receiving yards per game.

Meanwhile, in the 62 games Anthony Lynn coached prior as either an offensive coordinator or head coach, Lynn has had his running back room average 22.42 carries, 102.87 rushing yards, 0.94 rushing touchdowns, 8.29 targets, 57.95 receiving yards, and 0.40 receiving touchdowns per game.

Looking at these numbers, the Chargers running back room is currently running on the higher side of carries and rushing yards than what we'd expect from an Anthony Lynn offense. But the position group is also scoring significantly fewer touchdowns than we'd expect in Lynn's offense. Expect the Chargers running backs to improve in this area and score more touchdowns in future weeks.

Fantasy players this impacts: Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Joshua Kelley

Arizona Cardinals Wide Receivers

Kliff Kingsbury

Besides the Cardinals running backs, the Cardinals wide receivers struggled more on Sunday than we'd expect based on Kliff Kingsbury's previous production at the position. In the game, the Cardinals wide receiver room caught 14 passes on 20 targets for 67 receiving yards and one touchdown. On the year, the Arizona Cardinals wide receiver room is averaging 17.25 receptions on 23.75 targets for 175.5 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown per game.

Now compare this to the usage and production Kliff Kingsbury's offense put out last year. Last year, Kingsbury's wide receiver room averaged 23.69 targets, 168.44 receiving yards, and 0.81 receiving touchdowns per game. This tells us two things. Firstly, it tells us that based on Kingsbury's previous production, Sunday's poor performance by the positional group is a clear outlier. And secondly, it shows that the overall season averages of the Cardinals wide receivers are right in line with what we should expect in this offense.

Fantasy players this impacts: DeAndre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella

Chicago Bears Running Backs

Matt Nagy

The Chicago Bears went up against the Indianapolis Colts tough defense and struggled to score, only putting up 11 points. In the game, the Bears only utilized one true running back, David Montgomery, who could just never get going, totalling 10 carries, 27 rushing yards, three receptions (on six targets), 30 receiving yards, and a successful two-point conversion. This means that on the year the Chicago Bears running back room is averaging 16.75 carries, 73 rushing yards, four receptions (6.25 targets), 34.25 receiving yards, and 0.25 receiving touchdowns per game.

Now let's compare this to Matt Nagy (Chicago Bears head coach) and his running back room's production historically. In the 48 he coached as an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to the start of the 2020 NFL season, Nagy's running backs combined to average 20.58 carries, 82.75 rushing yards, 0.58 rushing touchdowns, 7.96 targets, 47 receiving yards, and 0.31 receiving touchdowns per game.

Looking at these stats and knowing that Tarik Cohen is out for the year, it's clear that David Montgomery has some untapped potential for the rest of the 2020 NFL season. Invest accordingly.

Fantasy players this impacts: David Montgomery and Ryan Nall

Philadelphia Eagles Running Backs

Doug Pederson

The Philadelphia Eagles ground out a tough win over the San Francisco 49ers in week 4's Sunday Night Football game, winning 25-20. In the game, the Eagles running backs combined for 18 carries, 38 rushing yards, three receptions (five targets), 32 receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. On the year, the Philadelphia Eagles running backs have combined to average 20.5 carries, 78.75 rushing yards, 0.25 rushing touchdowns, 4.25 receptions (on seven targets), and 31.25 receiving yards per game.

Now let's look at what Doug Pederson has gotten out of the position traditionally. Over the 112 games he coached prior to the start of the 2020 NFL season, Pederson's running back room averaged 22.63 carries, 99.18 rushing yards, 0.86 rushing touchdowns, 6.62 targets, 41.18 receiving yards, and 0.30 receiving touchdowns per game.

Expect the Philadelphia Eagles backs to improve in future weeks. There's a very strong chance this is the cheapest you can acquire Miles Sanders over the course of the rest of the NFL season, so make your offers this week!

Fantasy players this impacts: Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Corey Clement

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