RADIO
By the time we tip off on Thursday in New Orleans, it will have been exactly 140 days, 18 hours, and 53 minutes since the NBA officially announced it had suspended the season amidst the coronavirus outbreak. We've all been anxiously following this unprecedented situation since that infamous night where the sports world stopped, and it's fair to say that everyone here at RotoBaller (and hopefully all of our readers) are extremely grateful that they have returned. We have a short two-gamer to start things off on Thursday in the Orlando bubble, but they are certainly two highly-anticipated matchups that are bound to provide some fantasy fireworks. Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans will take on the Utah Jazz, while a potential Western Conference Finals preview will go down in a star-studded matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Los Angeles Clippers.
No back-to-back's to worry about here, but there are a few players to keep an eye on leading up to lock. Lou Williams (personal) will not play on 7/30 as he's in quarantine after an excused absence (and a quick visit to Magic City). Patrick Beverley (personal) should be good to go while Landry Shamet (coronavirus) has been cleared but needs to pass two more tests before rejoining the team. We already knew Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) would sitting out the restart, while Rajon Rondo (thumb) is out until the playoffs. Anthony Davis (eye) has had his issue linger for longer than expected, so keep a close watch on his status. Zion Williamson (personal) looks to be on track to start on Thursday as the Pelicans and Jazz kick off the restarted NBA season. Update: Montrezl Harrell (personal) will not play. Lastly, it really is anyone's guess as to exactly how rotations will shake out in these seeding games. Most likely, coaches will err on the side of caution when it comes to pushing their star players too hard in this uncertain restart environment, particularly on the high-seeded teams. We'll do our best to project how it'll play out, but these are crazy times we're living in so be prepared for anything.
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 7/30/20. You can also check out today's FanDuel lineup picks. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineup lock.
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Lonzo Ball - PG, NO vs UTA ($7,400)
Jrue Holiday - PG/SG, NO vs UTA ($8,600)
Ball was playing his best basketball of the season before the shutdown, averaging 48.55 DK points per game in last five games played. He averaged 20.8 points and and 7.8 assists per game during that stretch as he clearly demonstrated that the inclusion of Zion Williamson has helped his fantasy game rather than hinder it. He draws a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz as they rank 10th in DK points allowed to PG's, but he has the upside to far exceed his cheap price tag.
The Jazz aren't as stingy against SG's (5th-most DK points per game allowed), though, which puts Jrue Holiday in the spotlight. Holiday averages 40.8 DK points per game this season but should be the lowest-owned player that has a legitimate shot at reaching the 55 DK point threshold (which he has done in three of his last eight games). He's taking (5.9) and making (2.1) threes at a career-high rate in 2020, and he also racks up the peripheral stats when his game is on. Holiday looks great as long as he's on the lower side of ownership on the short slate.
Note: The Pelicans play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA as they love to push the ball, while the Jazz like to slow it down as they rank as the sixth-slowest paced team. Use that information as you wish, but analytics have shown that in these situations, the faster-paced team usually gets dragged down in pace and results in fewer possessions for each team. Both of these teams have something to play for so we should see (at least close to) a full allotment of minutes from the starters.
Alex Caruso - PG/SG, LAL vs LAC ($3,700)
Everyone's favorite underdog story, "Carushow" is going to be handed a larger role in the Orlando bubble than he's accustomed to. LeBron controls the offense and plays plenty of PG, but the Lakers are thin at primary ball-handlers with just Quinn Cook backing up Caruso. Sure, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, J.R. Smith, and Dion Waiters could bring the ball up, but truly think about this one. Do the Lakers really want to go that route? Caruso had been seeing 15-20 minutes per game prior to the shutdown, but he'd regularly receive 24-30 minutes in games where the Lakers were short-handed. Expect at least 24 minutes and even though his fantasy points per minute rate (0.74) is low, he won't need to do much to pay off his dirt-cheap price tag.
Patrick Beverley - PG, LAC vs LAL ($4,100)
Check out Beverley's status leading up to lock, but if he's the projected starter, he provides some decent value at the PG position on DraftKings. It seems logical that the flashier Ball and Bald Mamba will be the most highly-owned guards (outside of LeBron), so pivoting to Beverley could pay off handsomely in GPP's. He entered the break on a bit of a slide from a fantasy perspective, but he's averaging 23.7 DK points per game for the season and that will get it done at his price on a two-game slate. There's also a bit of a scoring void left without Lou Will and his 18.7 points per game on the court.
Note: if Beverley is out, Reggie Jackson becomes a near-lock as the only healthy PG on the Clippers. Jackson is a solid GPP play, regardless.
DraftKings DFS Forwards
Paul George - SF, LAC vs LAL ($7,200)
LeBron James ($10,700) is priced up and in a rough matchup to kick things off as the Clippers give up the sixth-least DK points per game to SF's and he's likely to be guarded by defensive whiz Kawhi Leonard. Leonard ($9,200) is also expensive but gets an easier draw as the Lakers rank 15th in DK points per game allowed to SF's. That leaves us with the under-priced Paul George as our value stud on the short slate, who has looked great in the bubble scrimmages. George is a player who surely benefited from the extended layoff as he had dealt with various injuries and inconsistent play earlier in the season. He's still averaging 37.9 DK points per game and could hit a ceiling game here with defensive attention focused on Leonard. As noted earlier, the Lakers are an elite defensive team but if there's one area that can be attacked, it's at the small forward position. Leonard has a better chance at the double-double bonus, but PG13 looks to be the better play from a value standpoint.
Brandon Ingram - SF/PF, NO vs UTA ($8,300)
The Pelicans currently have the highest projected total on the slate and Ingram might be slept on a bit in this matchup. The Jazz give up the fifth-least DK points per game to SF's, but they give up the third-most DK points per game to PF's. Of course, this was with Bojan Bogdanovic playing the small-ball PF, and he's now out. Ingram will likely see some combination of Joe Ingles, Royce O'Neale, and Georges Niang, who are all plus defenders, but they'll have their hands full trying to contain Zion. This should free up Ingram at the perimeter and mid-range and give him a great chance at exceeding his 41.8 DK points per game average.
Joe Ingles - SG/SF, UTA vs NO ($5,700)
The Pelicans give up the second-most DK points per game to SG's and SF's, and they have allowed SF's to hit 36.8% of three-pointers (eighth-most). Ingles is the sharpshooter on the Jazz as he shoots 39.7% from three, and he'll be one of the players asked to step up his scoring and play-making in the absence of Bojan Bogdanovic. He's priced way up from where he normally comes in, which should scare ownership away. He's capable of spiking in the 35-45 fantasy range (39.75 DK points on 3/9/20) and this looks like it could be one of those games.
DraftKings DFS Centers
Anthony Davis - PF/C, LAL vs LAC ($10,000)
Anthony Davis looks like the better play of the two star Lakers. He's at a cheaper price point, is eligible at a more premium position, and he should have the easier matchup as the Clippers don't have the frontcourt bodies to defend him in the paint. The Clippers gave up the 9th-most DK points per game to centers before the shutdown. He'll likely see some combination of Montrezl Harrell, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris, JaMychal Green, and maybe even a little Joakim Noah. These teams matched up on 3/10/20 and Davis had 30 points, seven rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block for 47.75 DK points. He has a chance at the double-double bonus with the Clippers shorthanded in the frontcourt, and he should fill up the stat sheet as he normally does.
Note: Davis didn't play in Monday's scrimmage and sat out Tuesday's practice due to a lingering eye issue. Lakers coach Frank Vogel expressed concern about his chances to suit up on Thursday. LeBron obviously becomes an auto-lock if Davis sits out, and the Lakers' reserve centers (JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard) enter the conversation as value plays.
Zion Williamson - PF/C, NO vs UTA ($7,500)
As mentioned, the Jazz' weak spots on defense are against the SG and the PF. They defend centers really well with all-world defensive stud Rudy Gobert clogging the mic. I mean middle. However, the Pelicans don't really use a center, as Derrick Favors and Zion generally serve as the small-ball big's when the team is healthy. He hasn't faced the Jazz yet in his short career, but he's averaging 36.9 DK points per game and gives you a high floor as he has been ultra-consistent with his scoring and his peripheral stats (23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks per game). The only gripe we should have with him is that he's not shooting more threes. He hasn't exceeded one attempt in a game after going 4-for-4 in his first game and holding a 46.2% three-point percentage. He could hit a ceiling game here, but keep an eye on his ownership and adjust accordingly.
Good luck to everyone in their NBA DraftKings contests! Damn it feels good to finally be able to say that!
