RADIO
A full weekend of NASCAR action at Homestead-Miami Speedway is topped off on Sunday with the Cup Series Dixie Vodka 400. For the first time in an eternity, Homestead hosts a race that isn't the season finale. Will that mean we get a different kind of race without the added pressure of drivers competing for a championship?
Sunday's race will be a chance for Joe Gibbs Racing to bounce back from an incredibly disappointing Martinsville race for three-quarters of the team, and with Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch both starting in the top four, we should see those Toyotas up front early on. Can they sustain that over the course of the race, though?
Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any NASCAR questions (or, really, any questions about any sport that isn't baseball)" @juscarts.
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NASCAR DFS Research for Dixie Vodka 00
If you are not familiar, in this article I will highlight some helpful NASCAR data from my deep dive into the Premium Research Station. You can get full access to that Premium DFS Tool, and others including our Lineup Optimizer, with our NASCAR Premium Pass.
Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. You can also check out our YouTube video:
Top Fantasy Values At Homestead
Obviously, building a strong DFS lineup requires you to find some strong value, and one thing our Research Station can provide you is the tools needed to find those values.
One way to determine value -- projected fantasy points per $1,000 dollar salary. For DraftKings specifically, the two highest-priced drivers on this slate are projected to be some of the best values in the field, despite their high DFS pricetag:
So, it makes sense to spend up for one of those guys. But what about other players who have projected to produce at least five fantasy points per $1,000?
You've got to go further down the list to find the next name on it, which is Ryan Blaney at $8,800 and 5.11 FP/$. Next is Alex Bowman ($8400, 5.57 FP/$).
Tyler Reddick (5.96 FP/$) is the second-best value in the field. The best? It's Cole Custer, the only driver with a projected FP/$ over six, with his number coming in at 6.17.
(The worst FP/$, by the way? Josh Bilicki at 0.22. Don't play Josh Bilicki.)
Meanwhile, the FanDuel numbers are a lot different, especially lower down on the list. Corey LaJoie is the best value on that platform
Homestead Driver Ratings
NASCAR's driver rating formula puts together a lot of factors to spit out a number that rates how a driver performed in a certain race.
Of the highest-priced drivers, here are their driver ratings from last year's Homestead race:
Kyle Busch's numbers from last year were incredible. This is a great track for the 18 team, and he's won two Cup Series championships by virtue of victories at Homestead.
Some notable driver ratings lower down in the field that you might want to keep in mind when lineup building:
Erik Jones had a 99.4 rating in this race last year, which was the seventh-highest mark in the series. Meanwhile, he's priced outside the top 20 on DraftKings, though FanDuel has been a little smarter about how they've priced Jones.
Of drivers you might be considering, a couple of very low driver ratings from the last Homestead race to keep in mind: Bubba Wallace (46.7) and Ty Dillon (49.2). Might be guys you want to avoid this week.
Going back to 2013, Kyle Busch has the best driver rating here. Wallace and Dillon have struggled over the larger sample as well, while Matt Kenseth has a 104.3 driver rating at the track. A possible value there with the Chip Ganassi Racing 42 team?
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Average Running Position At Homestead
Since 2013, the driver with the best average running position at Homestead is Keven Harvick, posting as average position of 4.7, which is just slightly lower than his average finish of 3.9. This is a good place for Harvick.
Other drivers who on average run in the top-10 here are Joey Logano (5.9), Kyle Busch (7.3), Denny Hamlin (7.6), Matt Kenseth (8.2), Martin Truex Jr. (8.3) and Brad Keselowski (8.6). Again, Kenseth checks in as a value here, though maybe not as much as you might want when factoring in he mainly ran with Joe Gibbs here.
Meanwhile, of drivers on the lower end of the pricing system, there's Ryan Newman (13.1) and Erik Jones (15.0) who both tend to run well here.
On the opposite end, Alex Bowman's average running position here is 24.6, but don't forget that before he drove for Hendrick Motorsports, he ran in backmarker equipment. Don't read too much into his poor past performance here.
You probably can read into Ryan Blaney's average position of 19.4 here, though. In a combination of Wood Brothers and Penske cars, he's never posted a top 10 in five Homestead starts, and has never led a lap here. He's priced at a value this weekend, but he's also not someone with a great history here, so I wouldn't be super confident about playing him, despite a high project FP/$.
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