RADIO
Quarterback is the most important offensive position on a football field. Your quarterback's strengths and weaknesses are the starting point for your entire offensive's strengths and weaknesses. For this reason, it's a position that teams invest heavily in during the NFL Draft, with quarterback-needy teams often spending first round picks on players who might not even have first round talent just because of the positional need and positional scarcity.
But every year, a lot of quarterbacks don't get drafted and then end up signing with teams as undrafted free agents. But while we often talk about the UDFA gems at other positions, we usually dismiss UDFA quarterbacks as players who'll never see an NFL field.
Is that true? And do any of this year's UDFA passers have a chance to hold dynasty value? Let's investigate.
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A Brief History of UDFA Quarterbacks
Before looking at this year's UDFA passers, let's take a look at some historical data involving undrafted quarterbacks who've started NFL games. Obviously, there's essentially an infinite number of possible undrafted quarterbacks, but the following chart shows the quarterbacks who've gone undrafted since 2010 who've started NFL games, plus the number of games they've started. We're not even looking at production right now -- just at if there are UDFA quarterbacks who've gotten opportunities.
All in all, 15 names make our list over the decade. To put that into some perspective, as of Monday, it appears 12 undrafted free agent quarterbacks have signed deals this season, with a few more potentially expected to. No undrafted free agent classes of this decade have had more than three players start a game. The odds are slim is what I'm saying.
| Year | Quarterback | # of Starts |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | David Blough | 5 |
| 2019 | Devlin Hodges | 6 |
| 2018 | Kyle Allen | 13 |
| 2017 | Taysom Hill | Well... |
| 2017 | Nick Mullens | 8 |
| 2015 | Taylor Heinicke | 1 |
| 2014 | Connor Shaw | 1 |
| 2013 | Jeff Tuel | 1 |
| 2013 | Matt McGloin | 7 |
| 2012 | Kellen Moore | 2 |
| 2012 | Case Keenum | 62 |
| 2012 | Austin Davis | 10 |
| 2011 | Scott Tolzien | 4 |
| 2010 | Max Hall | 3 |
| 2010 | Thad Lewis | 6 |
So, as the list above shows, the past decade hasn't seen many opportunities for UDFA quarterbacks. The best of that lot is Keenum, while a few recent quarterbacks have been given extended run but, as of right now, are not slated to be starters in the NFL in 2020. Keenum is undoubtedly the success story of recent undrafted quarterbacks, and his success also proves how much of a rarity it is for an undrafted passer to become an NFL fixture. Keenum was a highly productive college quarterback, setting the NCAA record for career passing yards while playing for Houston. Does it mean something that over the past decade, the only player from this list to stake out a career as an NFL starting quarterback happened to be literally one of the greatest college quarterbacks of all-time? Maybe
But that's not to say these other players are completely without fantasy value. Especially in Superflex leagues, all three of Blough, Hodges, and Allen were rostered last season at various times and might still be on dynasty rosters, because just as positional scarcity makes NFL teams invest in quarterbacks, the scarcity of the position in Superflex means that players who might never sniff a roster in a one-QB league become tremendously valuable, especially during the season, when injuries and bye weeks can lead to someone jumping up into a starting role and you having to plug them in as your QB2.
For example, while neither Hodges nor Blough produced a single week as a top-12 quarterback, Kyle Allen produced four such weeks last season. He would have been extremely valuable in Superflex, and he should be considered valuable now as well, as he holds the backup role in Washington and would provide capable snaps should Dwayne Haskins go down.
So, that's what we're mainly looking for when we scour the UDFA market at quarterback. What one or two guys might have the mix of talent and situation to earn a backup role, and would then theoretically have Superflex value for a few years if they suddenly were forced to be elevated to a starting role for a short time.
Let's examine this year's top candidates for that role.
(By the way, I ignored Taysom Hill in all this because I have no idea how to talk about Taysom Hill in relation to this question, but there is a candidate below to be the next Taysom Hill.)
Anthony Gordon, Seattle Seahawks
Gordon is easily the pick for UDFA most likely to start a game in 2020.
First, Gordon's a quarterback who had a good shot at getting drafted and whose ultimate fate of going undrafted was a shock to me. I thought Gordon was one of the 10 best quarterbacks in this draft class; he's a smart passer who manages to make positive plays despite not having a top tier arm, and his ability to get the ball out quickly is a plus. He's also at least somewhat capable of moving inside and outside of the pocket.
But skill isn't what has me pegging Gordon as the most likely UDFA to start a game this year. What is is his opportunity.
The Seattle Seahawks depth chart at quarterback currently looks like this: Russell Wilson.
That's it. There's no backup quarterback. While Wilson has notably never -- yes, never -- missed an NFL game, Gordon is still the undrafted guy with the best chance of opening 2020 as the No. 2 guy on a roster, which puts him just one step away from starting an NFL game. Wilson's been incredibly durable, but he turns 32 this season and is a mobile quarterback. That player type doesn't always have sustained injury luck as they get deep into their careers.
For this reason, Gordon's the only undrafted quarterback that I currently have ranked in my top 350 player dynasty rankings.
Brian Lewerke and J'Mar Smith, New England Patriots
New England has two quarterbacks -- Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer -- on the roster. Assuming they don't take a risk on Cam Newton, this is a very shaky quarterback room. They brought in a pair of undrafted passers, and while neither is a lock to beat out anyone for a roster spot, one could make the team as a third quarterback or end up on the team's practice squad.
Lewerke has some good mobility, but he never put things together as a passer at Michigan State, never completing more than 60 percent of his passes and turning the ball over far too many times, including tossing 13 interceptions this past season.
Meanwhile, Smith had a good senior campaign at Louisiana Tech, throwing for 2977 yards on a 64.3 completion percentage with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. He improved his accuracy as his career went on and he has decent mobility.
Because the Patriots situation is so weird and Bill Belichick is so unpredictable, one of these guys could wind up on the opening day roster and could see the field at some point depending on how things shake out. We have no idea how Belichick is going to conceive of the quarterback position in a post-Tom Brady world.
Khalil Tate, Philadelphia Eagles
Let's end with my pick to be the Taysom Hill of this UDFA class, former Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate.
First, let's acknowledge that his ability to be a Wildcat quarterback like Hill might be limited by the fact that the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts, who also has a chance to have that kind of a role. But Tate's talent suggests he could have some kind of role on some team, whether it be the Eagles or somewhere else.
Back in 2017, Tate rushed for over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. Kevin Sumlin didn't use him as a runner as much in the two years since, but Tate's shown the ability to be a dynamic force with the football in his hands. Maybe Philly isn't able to use him in some interesting ways because of Hurts, but don't be surprised to see Tate make some roster as a Wildcat quarterback who can play multiple offensive positions.
