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The American League has fallen significantly behind the National League in terms of quality fantasy outfielders. Of the top-10 outfielders by ADP, only three (Mike Trout, J.D. Martinez, and Austin Meadows) represent the American League.
The relative lack of elite talent makes avoiding busts especially crucial in AL-only leagues, as a couple of early-round misses could be the difference between a championship season and a missed playoff berth. Even in mixed leagues, busts are important to avoid and can swing seasons.
Below is a breakdown of three AL outfielders who are relatively likely to bust in 2020. Fantasy owners would do well to avoid these players at their ADP and choose safer options instead.
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Luis Robert (CHW) - 82 ADP
A consensus top-10 prospect entering the 2020 season, Robert is an impressive hitter with a career .932 minor league OPS. Robert boasts impressive raw power and speed but struggles with plate discipline, posting a poor 4.61 K:BB last season (the major league average was 2.69).
There’s also the issue of Robert’s lack of major league experience. Of the 30 rookies to accumulate at least 300 plate appearances in 2019, only 11 managed to post an OPS north of .800, and the entire group of 30 posted an average OPS of .765. 12 of those rookies posted a K:BB above four, with those 12 averaging an OPS of .725. Here’s what the distribution of OPS looked like for all 30 rookies:
Based on Robert’s minor league performance, the 22-year-old appears likely to fit in the group with a K:BB of above four. That doesn’t mean that Robert is going to post an OPS well-below .800, but it does suggest significant risk given Robert’s top-100 ADP. That level of risk makes Robert a likely bust candidate in 2020, and fantasy owners should be wary of drafting the rookie outfielder with a top-100 pick.
Kyle Tucker (HOU) - 153 ADP
Tucker played well in 22 games last season with a .269/.319/.537 slash line, but playing time remains a major issue for the 23-year-old. The Astros appear set to start the season with an outfield consisting of Michael Brantley, George Springer, and Josh Reddick. The team has made it especially clear that Tucker won’t be a starting outfielder in 2020 by giving him reps at first base, indicating that the Astros view Tucker as a backup utility option.
In that case, the presence of Aledmys Diaz further complicates matters. Diaz is the more accomplished utility player and appears likely to be the primary option at first base when starter Yuli Gurriel is injured or gets a day off. Tucker should be a valuable fantasy hitter when he plays thanks to his 92 mph average exit velocity, 48.9% hard-hit rate, and 12.8% barrel rate, but a lack of clear consistent playing time makes Tucker likely to be a bust in full-season leagues this year.
Aaron Judge (NYY) - 38 ADP
Although the Yankees have remained optimistic regarding Juge’s timeline as he recovers from a stress fracture in his ribs, the uncertainty surrounding his recovery makes Judge a bust candidate in 2020. Fantasy owners are clearly aware of Judge’s rib stress fracture and have priced it into his ADP, as his ADP has dropped to 67 since the beginning of March. Still, that ADP dip may not be enough to save Judge from being a bust this year.
The Yankees believe that Judge suffered his stress fracture back in September, meaning that the outfielder had the entire offseason to recover from the stress fracture with rest. Nevertheless, the injury bothered Judge enough that he was unable to participate in spring training games. Leading up to a March 13th CT scan, Judge was optimistic about being able to return to baseball activities sooner than originally expected. The results of that CT scan showed a slight improvement in Judge’s condition, but not enough for him to resume baseball activities.
As a result, Judge is scheduled to undergo an additional CT scan on April 6 to see if the bone has healed more by that point. Given that Judge has rested his rib for months already, it seems unlikely that he’ll see significant improvement in his next CT scan. If the rib is not sufficiently healed after Judge’s next CT scan, he appears likely to miss at least a couple of months. That timeline may not be an issue depending on when the regular season starts, but Judge’s unclear timeline and potential to miss significant time make him relatively likely to be a fantasy bust this season.
