RADIO
Sammy Watkins is beginning his second season in Kansas City and could see a larger role in 2019. Matt Terelle examines Watkins' value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
When it comes to dynasty football leagues you know there is no offseason. Without the in-season worries of lineup setting and setting up waiver wire claims, dynasty league enthusiasts can focus their efforts on making trades to improve their teams and preparing for rookie drafts.
Today's column will take a look at Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Sammy Watkins. We will start off with an overview of the veteran and then take a look at analyzing his value in dynasty leagues. Then, to finish it off, we will propose some possible trades involving Watkins to give you some ideas for either buying or selling him.
For all discussions regarding Sammy Watkins' dynasty value, let's assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades.
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Overview
Sammy Watkins
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
College: Clemson
Height/Weight: 6'1", 211 pounds
2014 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 4
The Buffalo Bills traded up five spots in the 2014 NFL draft to take Sammy Watkins with the fourth overall pick. They paid a lot, sending the ninth overall pick and a future first and fourth to the Cleveland Browns to seal the deal. The trade looked good at first as Watkins played in 29 of 32 possible games in his first two seasons, catching 125 passes for 2,029 yards and 15 touchdowns. He played hurt for much of his third, and final, season in Buffalo. Watkins appeared in just eight games while playing through a foot issue.
The Bills then traded Watkins to the Rams after his third season instead of signing him to a contract extension when his rookie deal expired. Watkins was an afterthought in the Los Angeles offense, catching just 39 passes for 593 yards and eight touchdowns despite his 15 games played being the second-most of his career. Watkins was on the move again following the 2017 season, this time heading to the Kansas City Chiefs on a three-year deal. Watkins again struggled with injuries in 2018, playing in just 10 games. Despite the abbreviated season, Watkins almost matched his production from the year prior, catching 40 passes for 519 yards and three scores. He also showed the best efficiency of his career, hauling in 72.7% of his targets. That came after topping a 60% target conversion rate just once in the previous four seasons.
Watkins was on his way to another offseason as a low-end WR3 in dynasty until the unsettling Tyreek Hill news broke in mid-March. Now, with the possibility that Hill may face either legal action, punishment from the league, or both, Watkins has seen his dynasty ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator raise several rounds. While no one knows what, if anything, will happen to Hill, just the possibility is causing Watkins to gain some dynasty value. If Hill were to miss extended time with the Chiefs, Watkins would be elevated to the WR1 role in one of the top offenses in the league. On the other hand, Hill may very well be cleared of any wrongdoing, leaving Watkins where he was last season.
Dynasty Value
The uncertain nature of Hill's situation leaves Watkins with very unstable dynasty value. That makes it a risk to acquire his services in dynasty leagues. Of course, the reward is just as high as Watkins could finish as a top-12 wide receiver if the situation breaks in his favor. Depending on what happens to Hill, a Watkins buyer in dynasty could wind up looking very smart or very foolish. Those who are risk-averse in their team-building philosophy may want to avoid the Watkins situation altogether.
According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Watkin's current ADP is 59.3, making him a late fifth round startup pick in dynasty leagues. That is a significant shift as he was an eighth-round pick a month ago. As such, he should be worth roughly the equivalent of a first-round and a second-round rookie pick. Watkins' sudden value increase makes him a sell candidate if you can find an ambitious owner who is willing to pay the equivalent of a fourth-round startup cost.
Watkins is a quality talent at the wide receiver position, as evidenced by his 1,000-yard season on just 60 receptions back in 2015, but he has proven to be injury-prone over his career, appearing in just 62 of a possible 80 games. While he is still just 25, Watkins needs Tyreek Hill to get suspended or cut to be the No. 1 wide receiver in his offense. This isn't a recommendation to sell Watkins at any cost but instead a reminder that this might be the best selling window that Watkins' dynasty owners ever get. Opening up dialogue with the Hill owner in your league may be a smart idea, as well, as that owner may be looking to add some insurance in case Hill does miss time.
Possible Trades
From a draft pick perspective, if selling Watkins, I would initially be looking for at least a mid-first round rookie pick with a second-rounder on top, either in this year or next year's class. If buying Watkins, I would lead with just a late first and be willing to throw a second rounder in to seal the deal if necessary.
If looking at acquiring a different wide receiver, I would look to package Watkins with another lesser asset or a draft pick to try to move up a tier. Here at RotoBaller, we currently have Watkins ranked as the WR32 in dynasty leagues. If you could move him and possibly a first-round pick to get a player in the Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Jarvis Landry, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp territory, that would be a recommended deal to explore.
If you are trying to move Watkins for a running back, try for a 2-for-1 deal where you pair Watkins with a pick to net an RB with a third-round startup value. Those players include Aaron Jones, Derrius Guice, Leonard Fournette, and Phillip Lindsay.
Conclusion
When all is said and done, the Tyreek Hill situation has the potential to make dynasty owners look very smart or very silly depending on how they valued Sammy Watkins. I would recommend buying Watkins if you can get him around the value he was before the news broke. If you are a Watkins owner the sell window is wide open and it would be worth pursuing deals if you think you can get a nice haul in return.
