Is Tyler Boyd the WR to Own in Cincinnati?

November 1, 2018

Daniel Benjamin examines whether wide receiver Tyler Boyd has overtaken A.J. Green as the Cincinnati Bengals new No. 1 receiver and will keep delivering high-end WR2 value for fantasy football owners.

Tyler Boyd is starting to prove that the Cincinnati Bengals did not make a mistake making him the sixth wide receiver selected in the 2016 draft.

Boyd's potential was first brought to the attention of Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis by his father, Marvin Lewis Sr., back in 2012 when Boyd was still in high school according to The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. After a decorated high school career, Boyd -- a Pittsburgh area native -- went on to star for the University of Pittsburgh where he averaged 82.3 receptions for 1,120 yards over three seasons. He declared for the NFL draft following his junior year and was ultimately selected by the Bengals with the 55th overall pick.

Boyd started his rookie season third on the team's depth chart behind veterans A.J. Green and Brandon LaFell. He had a decent 2016 campaign, ranking in the top-75 in the league in receptions (56) and yards (603). However, his sophomore season wasn't nearly as successful. This year he has gone from undrafted in most fantasy leagues to every-week starter status in fantasy leagues. The question now becomes: has the third-year pro done enough to become the Bengals No. 1 receiver going forward?

Living Up to Expectations

Second-year struggles

Boyd's emergence comes as a surprise because of the low bar set after his sophomore season. Despite appearing to have established himself as a major part of the offense, the Bengals decided to draft John Ross with the ninth overall pick and re-sign Brandon LaFell during the 2017 offseason. Boyd was on the field for nearly 70 percent of the offensive snaps in the season opener. However, he came up with just one reception on four targets for 11 yards in that game.

Boyd did not play at all in Week 2 and then was on the field less than 50 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 3. The third-year pro finally had his first multi-catch game of the season in Week 4, finishing with two catches for 15 yards. Then in Week 5, after hauling in two passes early in the contest, Boyd left the game in the first quarter with a sprained right MCL. He ended up missing the next four contests.

Boyd was eased back into action when he returned in Week 11. The 23-year-old did record his first touchdown of the season in Week 12 versus Cleveland as he caught his first red-zone target of the season. He remained relatively quiet until Week 16 and 17.

Boyd had five receptions in each of his last two games, but his season finale was a little more spectacular. On Dec. 31, against Baltimore, Boyd -- who was on the field for a season-high 60 offensive snaps (75.9 percent) -- posted 91 receiving yards with 49-yards coming on the game-winning touchdown catch with 44 seconds left. The win by the Bengals knocked the Ravens from the playoffs and allowed the Buffalo Bills to end their postseason drought.

Boyd ended his second season with 22 catches on 32 targets for 225 yards and two touchdowns.

Becoming a full-time starter

The 6-foot-2, 203-pound receiver had a tremendous 2018 training camp. His development gave the Bengals enough confidence in him to release LaFell a month before the start of the season. He also beat out Ross to earn the other wideout starting spot, opposite AJ Green. Boyd compiled seven catches for 59 yards and one touchdown during the preseason.

Boyd saw five targets in the Bengals season-opening win over the Colts, bringing in three passes for 26 yards. His workload quickly increased from there as he reeled in six of nine targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Boyd had three receptions of at least 15 yards including two that went for more than 20 yards in the game.

The Ravens game set the stage for what was to come in the subsequent weeks.

In Week 3 against Carolina, Boyd caught six of seven targets for 132 yards -- marking his first-ever 100-yard game. Boyd's 22.0 yards per catch and 18.6 yards per target are season highs. His production wasn't the only thing that increased.

Boyd doesn't have burner speed so it is unusual for him to catch long passes. But that is exactly what occurred versus Carolina. Against the Panthers, Boyd ran four routes of at least 15 yards, hauling in three of those passes -- including two that went for more than 25 yards. One of the two passes was a 27-yard pitch and catch that resulted in a touchdown while the other was a deep pass down the left sideline that went for 49 yards.

Then in Week 4 versus Atlanta, Boyd reeled in a career-high 11 of 15 targets for 100 yards. All 11 of his receptions were short passes with 13 yards being the longest.

Weeks 5-7

Boyd continued his solid play over the following weeks after his breakout games. Over Weeks 5 and 6, he produced 11 receptions for 106 yards and two scores against Atlanta and Pittsburgh. Both of the touchdowns came against the Steelers, giving him his first multi-touchdown game of his career. In the game versus Steelers, he capped the Bengals' second drive of the game with a two-yard touchdown. His second touchdown came just prior to halftime to knot the game up at 14. Cincinnati would go eventually fall to Pittsburgh 28-21.

Week 7 only can be considered a stinker for both Boyd and the Bengals as a team. Boyd, who was targeted four times, finished the game with three catches for 28 yards. The targets were a season-low, in fact, he had not seen that few passes since Week 14 in 2017. Also, the three receptions tied his fewest of the campaign and the 28 receiving yards were just one more than what he registered in Week 1.

The Bounce Back

What do great players do after a poor game? Bounce back, which was exactly what Boyd did in Week 8. Boyd shredded the Tampa Bay Bucs' defense to the tune of nine receptions for 138 yards and one touchdown. Six of his receptions came in the first half where he totaled 112 yards, which included a nine-yard touchdown that put the Bengals up 14-0 early in the second quarter.

The game versus the Buccaneers resulted in Boyd registering the most receiving yards in his career. His receptions, yards per receptions (15.3), yards per target (13.33) and target totals were the second-highest totals that he has posted this season. In the meantime, his 90 percent catch rate was second-highest of his career when he has been targeted five or more times.

Has Boyd Overtaken Green as the Bengals No. 1 Receiver?

Slow your roll. Boyd has been fabulous, but Green is still the best receiver on the Bengals' roster. Granted the difference between the two players is minuscule. Over the last four weeks, Green leads Boyd in receptions (25-23), targets (46-30) and yards (390-271). While Boyd currently has more receptions (49-45) on the year, Green tops the team in yards, targets, touchdowns, big plays (20 or longer yards) and catches that lead to first downs.

Perhaps even more telling is that Green has been targeted at least once in the red zone in every game while Boyd has been targeted in five of the eight games. Overall, Green has six receptions on 13 red-zone targets, compared to Boyd's seven targets and seven receptions inside the 20. Green and Boyd each have seen four passes and both have two catches inside the 10.

In terms of fantasy, Green leads Boyd in points produced 102.7 points to 92.3 in standard league scoring. In the last four weeks, Boyd has failed to tally five fantasy points twice.

Saying all that, both players should be in your fantasy lineups going forward. Green should be considered a mid-to-high WR1 over the next three weeks and Boyd a solid WR2 to low-WR1. The Bengals next three opponents are the Saints (Week 10), Ravens (Week 11) and Browns (Week 12).

The Bengals-Saints contest could be a shootout, as both team's secondaries are among the worst in the league against the pass. The Saints are giving up the most points in the league to wide receivers as they have surrendered 108 receptions for 1,516 yards and 12 touchdowns in seven games.

Cleveland is permitting the 10th most points to receivers. Despite the fact that Baltimore has surrendered the sixth-fewest points to receivers, Carolina Panthers' rookie DJ Moore posted five receptions for 90 yards in last week's 36-21 victory. Green has a strong history against all three teams and Boyd has done well versus the Ravens.

Boyd is currently situated as the 11th-best fantasy wide receiver and there is no reason that he shouldn't continue his upward trend and finish as a top-eight receiver this year. Going forward, he has some pretty appetizing matchups as the Ravens are the only team of the Bengals' remaining eight games that is outside the top-20 in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Regardless of where Boyd finishes the year -- with the exception of him getting injured or totally flopping the rest of the season -- he should be considered a top-10 wide receiver next year and perhaps the Bengals' top receiver as Green will be 31 prior to the start of the season.

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