RADIO
In a time, not too long ago, defense was king of the NFL. Pulverizing hits weren't just legal, they were glamorized. The rules of the game itself were slightly slanted in favor of those on the defensive side of the ball, and in order to find success, teams were forced to wear down the opposition with their rushing attacks. I miss those days. But, even the strength of the nostalgic feeling which currently embodies me is not strong enough to change the fact that those days are all but a distant memory.
Some guy named Albert Einstein once said, "the measure of intelligence is the ability to change." In today’s NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs have the third-highest odds to hoist the Lombardi this season (+900) despite giving up 30.7 points per game (third-most). Due to safety concerns, our rapidly decreasing attention spans, and the fact that offense -- fantasy football -- sells, defensive players are penalized for even thinking about trying to prevent the opposing offense from scoring; let alone, breathing the same air as an offensive player. And these rule changes, combined with an offensive focus (not just the league either - new schemes, mentalities, and frankly, better athletes) have led to teams passing more than ever before.
It should come as no surprise, then, that the days of the workhorse RB are quickly approaching the horizon line. What does that mean for fantasy football owners in 2018?
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End of an Era
We don’t have to look very far to find evidence of that last statement, either. Just look at the Pittsburgh Steelers unwillingness to pay Le’Veon Bell (arguably the most talented RB in the game). Now I get it, it’s a business decision on Pittsburgh’s part - with the salary cap, roster flexibility, and longevity being among the reasons they’d be hesitant to ink Bell to a lucrative, long-term deal. Nonetheless, if we read between the lines the underlying message is clear - running backs simply don’t have as much value in today’s game. Why pay one Le’Veon Bell $20 million per year when you can pay a downhill runner, a pass-catching back, and possibly a young, promising, do-it-all back (e.g. James Conner) significantly less and have them combine to put up similar production?
The answer is simple: There isn’t a reason to.
Now don’t get me wrong, I do believe Le’Veon Bell has earned the right to command top dollar. Undoubtedly. However, if we look at it from another perspective, the combined base salary of the Steelers offensive line this season is $15,220,000. The entire offensive line. In other words, the five guys who open up the running lanes for Le’Veon Bell are making about $5 million less than Bell is wanting to be paid, individually. How much sense does that make?
The answer is simple: It makes no sense.
But, that’s not the point I’m trying to make here. The point is to see the trend, adapt, and be deemed as intelligent in the eyes of Mr. Einstein. The point is to laugh in the faces of your peers as your fantasy team dominates them on a weekly basis. The point is to focus on pass-catching backs as the league is more pass-oriented than ever before.
Now if you don’t mind, I’d like to take a second to look at some numbers because everything I’ve said to this point could easily be deemed subjective. Ok, maybe not. Anyone who’s watched the NFL over the past 10-20 seasons can tell you that the league is trending heavily towards passing. But, should you choose to play Devil’s Advocate, here are the average pass attempts per game over the past 10 seasons:
- 2017 – 34.2
- 2016 – 35.7
- 2015 – 35.7
- 2014 – 34.9
- 2013 – 35.4
- 2012 – 34.7
- 2011 – 34
- 2010 – 33.7
- 2009 – 33.3
- 2008 – 32.3
That’s an average of 34.4 pass attempts per game compared to 32.4 in the ‘90s and 31.7 in the ‘80s.
But what does that have to do with workhorse RBs? Not much. They’re still around. In fact, through three weeks, 19 RBs have seen at least 60 percent of their team’s rushing attempts. And, of those 19 players, 15 of them are Top-25 fantasy producers at the RB position. (More on this in a bit.) Yes, 60 percent is an acceptable success rate (15 workhorse RBs in the Top-25 fantasy RBs), but if we look at it from the opposite end, that also means 10 of the Top-25 fantasy producers have received less than 60 percent of their team’s carries. One step further, seven of those 10 are below 50 percent of their team's share of carries (with two being at/below 20 percent) - the relationship between carries and fantasy production is no longer mutually exclusive.
Take a moment to turn the clock back 10 years to 2008, where were you? In an attempt to maintain my virtuous image, I’ll go ahead and plead the fifth. I can say, however, that a lot has changed within the RB landscape in what’s been a relatively short period of time. Through three weeks of the ‘08 season, we had seen 22 individual, 100+ yard rushing performances. Rewinding back 20 years, to 1998, we had seen 27 individual, 100+ yard rushing performances through Week 3. Guess how many we’ve seen thus far in 2018? 13.
This tells me either one of two things: 1. Guys are receiving less carries, or 2. They’re doing less with their opportunities. I can already hear the detractors, “That doesn’t prove anything, there were just more elite backs then!” “Go back 50 years to 1968 and there were only 10 instances over that stretch!”
… Let’s just take a look at the numbers.
A mere five seasons ago (2013), the NFL average (per team) was 27.1 rushing attempts per game and the RBs who finished among the Top-25 rushers received an average of 15.7 carries per game. 10 seasons ago (2008), the NFL average (per team) was 27.6 and the Top-25 backs received an average of 17 carries per game. So far this season? The team average is down nearly two carries per game (25.4) and the average among the Top-25 backs has dipped to 14.5 carries per game. Comparing apples to apples, we’ve seen 12 instances of a running back receiving at least 20 carries in a game through this season’s first three weeks - that number was 24 in 2013 and 29 in 2008.
Workhorse backs may still exist, in the literal sense, they’re just receiving far less work. Meanwhile, backs, as a whole, are more involved in the passing game by default.
Sticking to the five-year variance, 21 RBs had 40 or more receptions in 2013; 18 in 2008. Meanwhile, this season's first three weeks has already seen 19 backs catch at least 10 passes -- so it appears those totals will be obliterated -- and four backs (Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Chris Thompson) are on pace to break Matt Forte's record of 102 receptions in a season.
2013 also saw 24 RBs pick up at least 300 receiving yards, that number was up from 21 in 2008, and as it currently stands, 28 backs are on pace to top 300 yards this season. Sure, we'd have to assume that everyone who is currently injured plays in all games moving forward, and guys like Ito Smith and Patrick DiMarco see consistent playing time to reach that number (not likely) but if we look at in terms of fantasy points only, 56% of the Top-25 RBs (14 of 25) have averaged fewer than the 15 carries per game and 10 of those 14 rank in the Top-25 at the position in receiving yards. Again, the relationship between carries and fantasy production is no longer mutually exclusive, and if we take a look at things in terms of receiving yards only, 17 of the Top-25 scoring fantasy RBs also rank in the Top-25 at the position in receiving yards - with Alvin Kamara being a Top-10 receiver overall and the likes of Jalen Richard having more receiving yards than Larry Fitzgerald, Danny Amendola, and Robby Anderson.
All of this is nothing more than a convoluted way of bringing us to one simple point: the devaluation of the running back position combined with a downward trend in rushing attempts isn’t necessarily bad for our fantasy RBs - we just need to target the guys who can also catch the ball. Oh, and by the way, this has been based on standard scoring. Telling enough. No need to even touch on the PPR numbers.
P.S. – Kyle Juszczyk literally has zero carries this season and has more fantasy points than Derrick Henry and Peyton Barber; both of whom are Top-15 in terms of rushing attempts on the season. Now, tell me about that fourth-round pick you spent on Henry...
