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Wide receivers and tight ends who may see decreasing target totals in 2018. Justin Carter identifies WR and TE who could be ADP busts for the upcoming fantasy football season based on a lower market share of targets and receptions after offseason changes.
In order for an NFL wide receiver to have a successful fantasy season, that wide receiver has to have the ball thrown to him. It seems so simple, but predicting how the share of a team's targets will shake out is difficult stuff when you factor in the combination of rookies and free agents that a team has brought in mixed with the natural progression or regression of each player in the league.
Below are six players -- four wide receivers and two tight ends -- who I'm projecting will see the ball less this season. In some cases, that doesn't spell fantasy doom, as they'll still catch enough of the targets they receive to maintain fantasy value, but in other cases the falling targets could be a good reason to avoid them all together come draft season.
So, which players will see their share of targets decrease in 2018? Read on to find out.
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The Falling Targets of 2018
Mohamed Sanu (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
For most of the players in this article, I'll be diving into the statistics and making an argument for why their targets will go down based on all kinds of metrics and stats and blah blah blah, but the way it's going to start is pretty simple: the Atlanta Falcons drafted a very talented wide receiver in Calvin Ridley and those targets have to come from somewhere. Ridley is capable of playing on the outside or in the slot, so it figures that the Falcons will put him in whatever spot on the field best maximizes his talents. I have Sanu dropping down my rankings, though it's still possible he retains some value in the slot if Matt Ryan looks his way more than he looks at Atlanta's underwhelming tight end options.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, Denver Broncos)
The Broncos have begun the transition to the post-Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders-era by drafting Courtland Sutton a year after they spent a third-round pick on Carlos Henderson. Henderson might end up as a bust, but Sutton is a promising player and Sanders is coming off a rough season. Limited to 12 games last season due to ankle issues, Sanders posted a career-low catch rate, his fewest yards per game as a Bronco, and his fewest yards per reception with the team. If Sutton looks as good in training camp and the preseason as he did at SMU, Sanders could see the field less and less as the season goes along. Quarterback Case Keenum is an efficient passer, but he ranks near the bottom of the league in intended air yards. If Sutton wins the slot role and Sanders plays outside, he should see his targets drop.
Jack Doyle (TE, Indianapolis Colts)
I loved what Jack Doyle brought to the table last year for the Colts. He was targeted a career-high 108 times, converting that into 80 catches, 690 yards, and four touchdowns. Doyle finished as a top 10 fantasy tight end for the first time in his career, but a repeat performance will be tougher to achieve since the team brought in former Detroit Lion Eric Ebron. Ebron's first four seasons in the league have been disappointing in light of his draft position -- the 10th pick in 2014 -- but he has finished as a top 15 fantasy tight end for three consecutive years. The Colts didn't bring Ebron in to sit on the bench; he'll be making $6.5 million this year. While the second year of the contract isn't guaranteed, that's a lot of money if the Colts don't think Ebron can challenge for targets. Expect Doyle's targets to look more like the 75 that he received in 2016. He still had a productive season that year, but it wasn't a top 10 season.
Jermaine Kearse (WR, New York Jets)
Kearse finished as the WR26 in PPR last season, his first time ever finishing inside the top 40. The move from Seattle to New York did wonders for Kearse, who was able to grab 65 catches for 810 yards and five touchdowns on 102 targets.
Let's put that target number in perspective. Kearse finished 34th in the NFL in targets, ahead of guys like Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, and Cooper Kupp. After a catch rate of just 46.1 percent in 2016 with Seattle, Kearse caught 63.7 percent of his passes last season. But the Jets receiving core is getting crowded -- Quincy Enunwa is back after missing last season with a neck injury; in 2016, Enunwa was targeted 105 times. Robby Anderson returns after a breakout season. Terrelle Pryor was bad for Washington last year, but his 2016 campaign for the Browns, when he caught 77 balls for 1007 yards, wasn't that long ago. Kearse's physical profile puts him around the middle of the pack for wide receivers in terms of speed and catch radius. It's tough to foresee another 100 target campaign.
DeSean Jackson (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
The first of two Buccaneers on this list as the team possibly moves towards re-tooling their skill position players a little bit. Jackson has been targeted 190 times over his two seasons in Tampa Bay, but a catch rate of under 60 percent both seasons and an inability to consistently turn the deep balls he's thrown into touchdowns has kept him from achieving the kind of success he had early in his career. Now, rumors out of Tampa Bay have suggested that Jackson will cede snaps to second-year receiver Chris Godwin this season. With quarterback Jameis Winston out for the first four games of the seaso
Cameron Brate (TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
O.J. Howard was only targeted 39 times during his rookie season, but he caught six touchdowns and figures to cut into Cameron Brate's playing time at the tight end position. Aside from Howard's higher draft position and age, he has a few other things going for him -- his 4.51 40 time vs. Brate's 4.82 40, his higher catch radius (87th percentile vs. Brate's 35th percentile), and Howard leading all tight ends with 2.65 fantasy points per target. Howard might not establish himself as the clear number one tight end in Tampa Bay, but he's going to be used more extensively in the passing game.
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