RADIO
The minor league shuttle continues to deliver players of interest into the fantasy pool. The Rangers are taking a look at Willie Calhoun, a 22-year old bat-first prospect received in the Yu Darvish swap. Meanwhile, the Pirates summoned 24-year old Tyler Glasnow after a dominant stint at Triple-A. He was awful in his previous stint at the major league level, but maybe now he'll get things rolling.
It's worth noting that I can't tell you whether you should roster a guy or not anymore. Instead, your standings page should be making that determination. If you like your place in the standings, you should play conservatively and avoid question marks like the players above. If your league will boil down to a category or two, roster as many assets in that category as you can. If you need a miracle, high upside plays who are freely available are exactly what you should look into. Every team is a unique situation, and I'll try my best to explain the types of situations these guys would be a good fit in. Let's do it!
Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Willie Calhoun (2B/OF, TEX) 9% Owned
No one can deny that Calhoun crushed Triple-A pitching this year, as he slashed a combined .300/.355/.572 with 31 bombs between the Dodger (414 PAs) and Ranger (120 PAs) organizations. He slashed .254/.318/.469 with 27 HR in 560 PAs at Double-A last year, numbers that would lead to a part-time role at best considering his poor glove. His future was always in the AL, and now fantasy owners can see what he has to offer.
Power is the biggest asset in his profile. Calhoun has hit a ton of fly balls at every level of the Upper Minors, posting a 39.1% FB% at Double-A last year, 44.5% with LA's Triple-A affiliate, and 46.9% after joining the Texas farm club. He has also posted above average HR/FB rates at every stop (15.7%, 15.9%, and 17.4% respectively), suggesting that he has the above average raw power to make a fly ball-centric profile work. Arlington is a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark, so Calhoun is likely to pop more than a few homers over the rest of the season.
Those homers might cost you a couple points in batting average, though. His BABIP was just .242 in his full season at Double-A last year, an almost unheard of number on the farm. All of the fly balls figure to drag Calhoun's BABIP down, and he also hit a low number of line drives (19.5% LD%) last season. Pull% by batted ball type is not publicly available for minor league seasons, but his overall Pull% of 49.7% suggests that he could run into shift problems if he hasn't already. Calhoun has no foot speed to speak of, so his grounders figure to underperform moving forward.
Calhoun posted a BABIP of .289 at Triple-A this season, but the underlying peripherals still suggest a lower mark against MLB pitching. His FB% was higher this year, while his LD% declined (15% with Dodgers, 14.3% with Rangers). He also pulled a ton of baseballs (45.6% with Dodgers, 48% with Rangers), and he still can't run. His BABIP seems likely to settle around .270 unless something changes dramatically.
Optimists may point to low K% figures (11.6% at Double-A, 11.8% with the Dodgers organization this year, 10% with the Rangers farm club) as a way for Calhoun to keep his average up, but his plate discipline really isn't elite. He walked 8% of the time at Double-A, 8.7% of the time at Triple-A with the Dodgers, and just 5% of the time after being traded to the Rangers. More walks should have been available to him considering his power numbers. Calhoun seems to end PAs by making contact early, preventing him from striking out or walking. The collapse of Pablo Sandoval tells us how quickly that game plan can fall apart.
There is also risk that the "contending" Rangers bench him if he does not hit the ground running. Calhoun has also played both outfield and second base on the farm this year, allowing fantasy platforms to give him wonky positional eligibility. Be sure to double-check that he actually qualifies at the position you plan to use him in before scooping him up.
Calhoun debuted in the seventh slot in the Rangers batting order, a position unlikely to produce many counting stats. He might be the best option for homers available to you, but he'll hurt you in every other category. Make sure you can take the hit if you need to move up in home runs.
Verdict: Chump
Tyler Glasnow (SP, PIT) 30% Owned
Glasnow might have been the worst pitcher in the majors this season, compiling a 7.45 ERA (5.17 xFIP) over 54 1/3 IP before his recent call-up. His "luck metrics" suggest more than a little bad fortune, as his 18.5% HR/FB, .366 BABIP against, and 59.4% LOB% all seem on the unlucky side. Still, his 18.9% K% doesn't move the needle in fantasy. His 10.9% BB% is also unacceptable from an arm with so few strikeouts.
His poor performance could theoretically be a contact quality issue, but Statcast data suggests otherwise. His 92.5 mph average airborne exit velocity against is roughly league average, as is his 7.6% rate of Brls/BBE. His batted ball distribution is normal as well (20.9% LD%, 44.3% GB%, 34.8% FB% career), so Glasnow does not get hit any differently than your average MLB arm.
The Pirates have 14 DRS as a unit, but their lineup has had so much turnover that their total numbers are meaningless. Their outfield defense stands out as being particularly weak, as Andrew McCutchen has -14 DRS in center field while a variety of right fielders have combined for -15. Glasnow's fly balls (.207) and line drives (.816) have both fallen for hits more often than average, an issue perhaps better attributed to his teammates than to him.
Glasnow's Triple-A performance this season looks like a completely different pitcher. He compiled a 1.93 ERA (2.17 xFIP) with a 38.5% K% (!) and 8.8% BB% over 93 1/3 IP. The luck metrics turned around completely, as Glasnow allowed a BABIP of .276, a HR/FB of 10.2%, and stranded 84.6% of the baserunners against him. There is little reason to think that these numbers are repeatable at the MLB level, but at least they prove that Glasnow is not doomed to consistently underperform his peripherals.
He was also excellent at Triple-A last season, posting a 1.87 ERA (3.37 xFIP) with a 30.4% K% and 14.2% BB%. The walks were high, but they didn't impact Glasnow too much thanks to an 85.7% strand rate. A 4.1% HR/FB and .255 BABIP against contributed to the sky high strand rate, but again similar numbers should not be expected with the Pirates. Glasnow pitched well at both Double-A (2.43 ERA and 2.35 xFIP in 63 IP) and Triple-A (2.20 ERA, 3.27 xFIP in 41 IP) in 2015, striking out and walking a bunch at each stop. He's clearly a strikeout artist with control problems.
Glasnow pitched 23 1/3 IP of 4.24 ERA (4.57 xFIP) ball in the majors last season, finally posting normal luck metrics (71% strand rate, .317 BABIP, 10% HR/FB) in the process. His K% (22.9%) was in between his work this year and his minor league performance, while his BB% (12.4% BB%) was again too high. Where have the elite K numbers gone?
Glasnow's Pitch Info repertoire does not support an elite K%. He throws a fastball, curve, change, and sinker. His heater is harder this year as opposed to last (93.8 mph last year, 94.5 this), but the offering's effectiveness declined considerably (10% SwStr% vs. 4.8% this year). Major league hitters are not fooled by the offering, slashing .330/.438/.591 against the pitch over Glasnow's career. He didn't feature a sinker at all last year, and the offering's performance (3.6% SwStr%, 50.7% Zone%, .421/.458/.658 triple slash against) suggests that he shouldn't.
Both of Glasnow's secondary offerings flash potential, but lack consistency. His curve's solid 14.3% SwStr% is offset by a low chase rate (36.3%) and lower Zone% (32.1%) over his career. His change looks like a wipeout offering at first glance (18% SwStr%, 37.4% Zone% career), but it's seldom chased outside of the zone (28.7% chase rate). As a result, both of these pitches are great ways to walk batters.
Glasnow's stuff has to be better in the minors, but the metrics to prove it aren't publicly available. He could figure everything out over the rest of the 2017 season, but it is not the most likely outcome. He's fine if you need a Hail Mary lottery ticket for a stunning comeback, but he's tough to recommend if you care about ERA, WHIP, walks, or are coming up against an innings limit.
Verdict: Chump
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