RADIO
Pierre Camus analyzes the fantasy impact of quarterback Jay Cutler signing with the Miami Dolphins and projects the value of skill position players for 2017.
Former Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler signed a one-year, $10 million deal with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, forsaking a cushy job in the Fox analyst booth to reunite with former OC Adam Gase. He should step in right away as the starter, after acclimating himself to the offense and personnel in training camp. Meanwhile, backup Matt Moore's hopes of stepping in to be the starter have been dashed once again.
The Dolphins made a bold statement by luring quarterback Jay Cutler out of semi-retirement in order to be their starting quarterback in 2017. This clearly indicates two things: 1) Ryan Tannehill is done for 2017, possibly longer and 2) Matt Moore doesn't have his coach's complete confidence. Although Moore was solid in four relief appearances, completing 63% of his passes and posting an 8/3 TD/INT rate, he hadn't started a game since 2011 before Tannehill's injury.
Enter Smokin' Jay Cutler, who is one of the more polarizing figures in the league. One look at social media reaction will show a number of people mocking the deal and declaring it a desperation move for the team, while others are calling it a smart and necessary move. Let's dive into the numbers and get to the bottom line of what this really means for Cutler, Tannehill, and the rest of the Dolphins' skill players.
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Jay Cutler's Track Record
You've heard over and over the narrative about Jay Cutler having his best season in 2015 under Adam Gase when he was calling plays in Chicago. This is true in the sense that Cutler was more efficient than ever, posting a 1.9 TD/INT and posting the second-lowest INT% of his career at 2.3%. This came on the heels of a 2014 where he led the NFL with 18 interceptions, so Gase must have done something right. Although that team wasn't exactly the 2016 San Francisco 49ers, Cutler didn't have the greatest cast of receivers either. Alshon Jeffery was his main target when healty, followed by Martellus Bennett and a declining Matt Forte. After that, it's a list of guys whose Madden ratings are lower than your custom "Be a Player" character coming out of high school.
Cutler has a reputation as a turnover machine, which is rightfully deserved. For perspective, his career 3.3% INT% is slightly better than Ryan Fitzpatrick's 3.4%, the same as Josh McCown's 3.3%, and barely below Eli Manning's 3.2%. Ryan Tannehill, by contrast, is 10th-lowest among active QB with 2.5%. So, if your league penalizes turnovers more heavily, you should indeed consider avoiding Cutler. Even Blake Bortles turns the ball over at a lower rate (3.0% INT%), believe it or not.
On the positive side, Cutler has gone well over 3,000 yards passing in each of the seven seasons in which he played close to a full season. Both Cutler and Tannehill posted some of their best numbers while operating under Adam Gase's offense and there is a familiarity factor that should make this unlike most free agent signings. Cutler probably won't put up career-best numbers, but the situation is favorable enough that he could at least replicate his numbers from 2015, not last year's dismal start with the Bears before shoulder problems derailed him. The fact that many of Tannehill and Cutler's numbers are eerily similar point to comparable fantasy value. That is to say, you don't want Cutler as your starting QB under any circumstance, but he could serve you well in a two-QB league as a value pick and will be worth starting for choice matchups in DFS tournaments.
Fantasy Impact on the Receivers
The Dolphins' offensive scheme won't change, which is one of the main reasons Gase reached out to Cutler in the first place. That said, there is a difference in style between Cutler and Tannehill. While Tannehill prefers to check down and avoid turnovers, Cutler has no problem taking shots downfield or trying to fit a ball into a tight window. In a study by Danny Tuccitto, Jay Cutler was shown to finish 13th among NFL quarterbacks in Average Depth of Target in 2016 with a 9.0 True aDOT, whereas Ryan Tannehill was 30th at 8.5 True aDOT. This may have been affected in some part by the play-calling, but the stats show this isn't an anomaly. Cutler averages more yards per attempt (+0.2) over his career and more yards per completion (+0.5). The differences aren't staggering, but it could make an impact on who gets the ball more often in the receiving corps.
Jarvis Landry has been Tannehill's safety blanket the last three seasons, totaling 409 targets and tying Odell Beckham for the most receptions to start a career over a three-year period. He'll still be the primary target, but more of those balls could go DeVante Parker's way. Parker has a bigger frame at 6'3", 209 lb, which is just a tad smaller than Cutler's longtime receiver and former Bronco/Bear/Dolphin, Brandon Marshall. Parker has been dedicated to his training and diet regimen this offseason and has been healthy through the preseason so far (*bangs loudly on wood). Plus, even with Tannehill at the helm, Parker posted a True aDOT of 12.9, compared to Landry's 7.6, which places him 127th out of 130 receivers.
While Cutler certainly will look toward Landry whenever possible, there may be a few more short passes that don't get into his hands if he opts to go deeper or simply gets sacked, as he often does. Cutler won't be chucking the ball deep every play, but that will be by design. The Fins want to be a run-heavy offense behind Jay Ajayi and a new QB who is prone to turnovers may have the ball taken out of his hands even more by his offensive coordinator. Landry is a solid WR2 in PPR leagues, but expect a small hit to his value. Parker should be the main beneficiary here, especially if he can flash his first-round talent over a full season for the first time. He makes for a good value pick, considering his late eighth round ADP. Kenny Stills will still be the deep threat, but it's hard to see him surpassing last year's career numbers of 726 yards and nine TD as the third receiver. Like Cutler, he's best used in MFL10 best-ball formats where you can benefit from his big games without having to rely on him as a starter each week.
Changing of the Guard in Miami
Although Ryan Tannehill still hasn't opted for surgery or even been ruled out for the season, the writing was on the wall long ago. Tannehill chose stem cell injections, rehab, rest, and a knee brace last December after his partial tear of the ACL/MCL. He understandably didn't want to go under the knife and miss the start of the following season if he didn't need to. Now, it seems inevitable that surgery will be required if he is ever to fully heal. The best-case scenario is that he repeats what already tried last year and misses the majority of this season, returning with another brace and an unstable area that is critical to mobility.
It's obvious that Tannehill has no value in fantasy football this season, but what about in dynasty leagues? Here's where it gets interesting. Tannehill was signed for four years, with a total of $45 million guaranteed and won't be an unrestricted free agent until 2021. However, the guaranteed money up front has been paid and next year's won't kick in until March. There is a potential out in 2018, which would save the team $17.5 million next season and nearly $40 million long-term, while resulting in a $4.6 million hit in dead cap space, followed by $2.3 million the next year.
This happens to be one of the best upcoming draft classes for quarterbacks in recent memory, so even if the Dolphins are a playoff team again, they may still have any number of choices available to them late in the first round, such as Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, Chase Litton, Josh Allen, Nick Fitzgerald, or Lamar Jackson. Tannehill won't necessarily be dumped by Miami because of his injury, especially if he has successful surgery and is deemed ready to go for training camp in 2018. Still, it's not implausible that the team chooses not to shell out so much money for a player coming off major knee surgery that has a losing record for his career. A trade isn't out of the question either, but it will be a long time before any of that shakes out. In the meantime, dynasty owners have no choice but to stash him or drop him outright to clear up roster space, as he has never shown signs of being a QB1 for fantasy purposes.
