RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We are now in the midst of the MLB season, so it's a good time to look at some key offensive trends. Among those trends we will follow each week is contact rate. A sudden increase or decrease in contact rate could signal the beginning of an extended hot or cold streak, leading to important waiver wire choices or start/sit decisions for fantasy baseball managers.
Each week we will look at a few players on each side of the coin and compare their previous week's contact rate with their actual performance over the course of the 2017 season. We do this because we care about you, the fantasy player.
Here are some of the top contact rate risers and fallers for Week 10 of the fantasy baseball season.
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Contact Rate Risers
Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA) 91% contact rate last seven days (+16%)
In the absence of Mike Trout, Calhoun has stepped his game up. Calhoun went deep on Tuesday night, bringing his season totals to nine HR and 23 RBI. It's been a disappointing campaign thus far for Calhoun, who is hitting just .227 this season, but he is actually walking at a 10.1% clip and is suddenly on pace to match his career high in power numbers from 2015 when he hit 26 HR and 83 RBI. The average may be falling in line as well; he's batting .429 over the last week while striking out just twice. A move up to the No. 2 spot in the lineup may be just the boost he needed. He's owned in exactly half of all Yahoo leagues, so he could possibly be salvaged from the waiver wire.
Yuli Gurriel (1B, HOU) 97% contact rate last seven days (+16%)
After a remarkably consistent career in the Cuban league, Gurriel has been unpredictable from week to week in the majors. Fortunately, he plays for the Astros, currently the hottest team in the game. Like the rest of his teammates, Gurriel is on point lately, hitting .316 in the last seven days with an impressive 97% contact rate. He continues to show a profound reverse split, hitting lefties at just .130 on the season compared to .316 against righties. If you were forced to put Bour on your DL just now, try streaming Gurriel while he's hot, but don't assume he will be a mainstay on your roster.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, BOS) 83% contact rate last seven days (+11%)
Is June the month that Bradley returns to form? A .421 average and six RBI in the past week is a good start. Bradley does have a suppressed .253 BABIP that should auto-correct over time and his batted ball profile is not any worse than last season, so this is as good a time as any to buy low if you're counting on a bounce back. The chances of him even coming close to last year's power numbers of 26 HR and 87 RBI are extremely slim, but the average and runs are enough to give him mixed league value. Personally, I prefer Calhoun over JBJ, but the two are fairly similar to you're splitting hairs deciding between them.
Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB) 89% contact rate last seven days (+12%)
We know he's got some pop and sneaky speed that gives him 20/20 potential. The mediocre average and low strikeouts have been holding KK back from true fantasy starter status. After a four-strikeout game in Texas that amounted to a whopping 12 K in one week, he came back to make contact on 89% of his at-bats with just two K the following week. With three more base hits on Tuesday night, he's up to a slash line of .261/.335/.412. He may not ever have a true breakout season, but if you stay with him you probably won't be disappointed. He's best suited as a fourth outfielder or utility player in deeper leagues.
Contact Rate Fallers
Adam Duvall (OF, CIN) 59% contact rate last seven days (-18%)
Duvall's already proven that last year was no fluke with 14 HR in the first two months of action. His batting average, currently at .272, has climbed up this season along with his overall contact rate. We've seen a bit of regression in both lately, as evidenced by an 18% drop in contact last week. Either he's falling back to last year's numbers that reflect his true ability or this is just a minor bump in the road of his progression as a hitter. Either way, you're not benching one of the best slugger in the National League and it would be foolish to sell now.
Kyle Schwarber (OF, CHC) 56% contact rate last seven days (-18%)
Amazingly, Schwarber's pitiful average last week has gone unnoticed because it practically mirrors his entire season thus far. Schwarber is slashing .162/.289/.346 on the season and has somehow found a way to get worse this week with a .118 average. The fact he's striking out 30% of the time isn't unusual for him, but aside from the nine home runs he's slugged, he simply hasn't done anything with the bat. Schwarber's line drive rate is down to 11.9% and he has but seven doubles. Despite his postseason heroics, he isn't the type of hitter that has enough of a track record to fall back on. Stay away or bench until something drastic changes. At this point, he's basically Ryan Schimpf but with five fewer HR.
Leury Garcia (OF, CHW) 67% contact rate last seven days (-16%)
It wasn't too long ago Garcia was on the risers list, but now the pendulum has swung the other way. In spite of a 16% drop in contact rate, however, he has managed to raise his average to .471 in the past week. Garcia has managed to make a living hitting the ball on the ground 55% of the time and still maintain a .296 average but don't be surprised if his luck runs out. We aren't really here to discuss power, but it should also be noted that he's already matched his career high in homers as a professional with six and his 20.7% HR/FB is double his career mark.
Josh Bell (1B, PIT) 61% contact rate last seven days (-16%)
Bell is a typical rookie who will go through pronounced hot and cold spells through the course of the season. It so happens that he's on the downward trajectory at the moment. Bell is a better hitter than his .231 BABIP suggests, so it's best to wait things out a couple more days without cutting bait completely. He hit above .270 at every level in the minors and finished at .273 in his first cup of coffee with the Bucs last season. He's best used on the other side of a platoon, if you can afford to do so.
