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JB investigates Week 12 trends in Starting Pitcher K-rates. These risers and fallers present buying and selling opportunities in your 2016 fantasy baseball leagues.
RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.
Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.
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K-Rate Risers
By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.
What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher. Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.
Adam Wainwright, STL
Season K-Rate: 17%, Last 30 K-Rate: 24%
A 24% K-Rate might not sound too exciting coming from an elite name like Waino, but its actually quite impressive considering he owns a 20.4% rate over his great career. Waino certainly had some dust to knock off this season, after spending almost all of 2015 on the DL with a torn achilles tendon. Over his first five starts in 2016, he was rocking a 7.16 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a lowly 4.6 K/9. But things are turning around for the 34 year old veteran.
Wainwright has cruised through his four June starts, holding opponents to a .191 BA while striking out 25 in 26.2 innings. His velocities are in line with his career averages, and his curveball is still filthy. In fact, its 7.1 wCB value actually ranks one spot higher than Clayton Kershaw's.
The early going was rough, but it looks like the storms have passed for Wainwright. The uptick in free passes is a bit concerning, but if he can maintain the surge in strikeouts, it will more than make up for it.
Verdict: Buy
Jake Odorizzi, TB
Season K-Rate: 24%, Last 30 K-Rate: 31%
Another starter enjoying an increase in whiffs this month is Odorizzi. After posting just a 7.8 and 7.1 K/9 in April and May, respectively, the RHP owns a sexy 12.3 K/9 through four June starts. He has relied heavily on his two seam fastball this season, and has used it quite successfully, as his 6.4 wFT ranks fourth best in the league among qualified starters.
There are two issues to consider when looking into Jake Odorizzi for your fantasy team. The first is the hard contact he is allowing in 2016. He is currently allowing a career high 36.0 Hard%, which has translated to a career high in HR rates. The second issue is his limited track record of quietly fading in the second half of the season. For the two previous seasons, Odorizzi recorded a 3.24 ERA and a 1.22 HR/9 over the first half, with a 4.32 ERA and 1.40 HR/9 over the second half.
So considering the extra pop Odorizzi is already allowing this season, and the fact that his BABIP has been lower than career average while his strand rate is higher, the second half regression looks highly likely for the third season in a row.
Verdict: Sell
K-Rate Fallers
Jeff Samardzija, SF
Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 13%
After a stellar month of May that saw The Shark go 4-2 with a 2.08 ERA with a 8.3 K/9, the righty has been getting shelled in June. Through his four starts this month, he is a not-so proud owner of a 6.23 ERA and 4.6 K/9, including a three inning-six run shellacking he received from the bats of the Pirates three days ago.
Despite the recent struggles, Samardzija's peripherals for the season don't really show any troubling trends. His cutter (which he is now throwing over one third of the time and it's value ranks fourth best in the league) and slider have been fantastic, his velocities are right on par, and he is limiting the free passes. Plus, he has his GB% up over his career average after suffering a significant drop in 2015.
It may not always be pretty, but Samardzija will fare just fine for the rest of the season. Minus the ugly 2015 campaign, The Shark has never pitched a full season with a K-rate under 22%, so I have no doubt that it won't stay down near 13% for much longer. He is pitching in a division where three of the four opponents rank in the bottom half of the league for strikeouts against RHP, and he is backed by the Giants offense (during an even year for what its worth) which will produce plenty of wins to boost his fantasy value. Use the ugly stats in June as a buy low opportunity in your league if you are interested in a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher who will be chasing 20 wins.
Verdict: Buy
James Shields, CWS
Season K-Rate: 18%, Last 30 K-Rate: 12%
This one doesn't really need much explanation. Ever since giving up 10 runs in 2.2 innings to the Giants in what turned out to be his last start as a Padre, Shields has been the most hittable pitcher in the league. He was decent against a great Boston offense two days ago, but still only struck out three while walking four.
Don't get cute and try to use Shields last outing as a false glimmer of hope. Last season was the only of his career which saw a K/9 over 9.0, coincidentally it was also his first season pitching in the NL West. Now he has moved back into the American League, and the future looks grim. Here is a heatmap showing his Contact% allowed per pitch location since that dark gloomy night against the Giants. There ain't a place in the entire ball park this guy can throw the ball to avoid contact right now.
Verdict: Stay Away
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