December 1, 2015

Ed Gorelik analyzes Week 13 sleepers available on 2015 fantasy football waiver wires. These NFL running backs (RBs), wide receivers (WRs), tight ends (TEs) and quarterbacks (QBs) are fantasy football sleepers.

Waiver Wire Adds for Week Thirteen

The twelfth Sunday of the season is through, ending with a cinematic victory for the Broncos where CJ Anderson finally stopped looking so bland and the Patriots finally gained an L on their season, which is something we can all be happy about.

Week 12 saw a vintage performance from Calvin Johnson, Rex Ryan make good on his word to get Sammy Watkins more involved before throwing away the game, a potential return to relevance for CJ Anderson, and big games from everyone's favorite contrarian WRs- Markus Wheaton, Doug Baldwin, and Seth Roberts.

Below are some waiver wire pickups and sleepers for Week 13 who can have a potential impact for your teams. My piece won't cover all waiver wire adds and targets each week, as there are just too many with all the league types out there, but I'll be highlighting and prioritizing the biggest impact players. Additionally, be sure to check out many more great RotoBaller articles and waiver wire analysis pieces at each position throughout the week, including risers/fallers, deeper league sleepers, rankings and more.

Week 13 Quarterback Waiver Wire Pickups

Jay Cutler (QB, CHI)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

He's coming off a weak game against the Packers on the road but that's not going to stop me from having him in here. Jay Cutler has a favorable schedule with only one black mark when he goes on the road to face the Vikings, but it's proceeded by matchups at home against the 49ers and Redskins and finishes with a trip to Tampa Bay. With Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte back in the lineup, Cutler should be able to hover around the low QB1-high QB2 range in the fantasy playoffs. He'll be here every week from here onward.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ)

30% Owned on Fleaflicker

Continuing his consistent fantasy performances, Fitzpatrick has only one game this year with less than two touchdowns (well, two but he got injured in one and his backup threw for two). This offense has too much talent and the scheme he plays in has too much magic, making it impossible for decent fantasy performances to not happen. Fitzpatrick isn't likely throwing many four touchdown games this year, but his rest of season schedule has the weak Giants defense next, a Titans defense missing it's #1 CB, a Cowboys team that no longer has an offense, and the Patriots. Its hard to see him failing to hit that two touchdown mark in all but that final game.

Brock Osweiler (QB, DEN)

24% Owned on Fleaflicker

Osweiler's win over the Patriots will likely keep him entrenched as the starter for the rest of the year. Sitting at the helm of an offense featuring so many weapons he should be able to put up points every week. There aren't a lot of quarterbacks playing on teams with two top wide receivers in them that also see three defenses amongst the bottom 16 in passing DVOA in the next four weeks. Osweiler does, and that makes his ceiling very high during the most important period of fantasy football: the playoffs. I'd be quick to grab Osweiler if you're still streaming QBs because he might be the last chance left on most waivers to have stability at the position.

Other Quarterback Options: 

• BUF QB Tyrod Taylor - 40% owned - Tyrod isn't very "good" but he's good enough to be a strong every-week high QB2 option.
• WAS QB Kirk Cousins - 32% owned - I really don't like supporting Cousins, who has a weak supporting cast and is himself a weak quarterback, but the schedule looks too easy to ignore, and surprisingly the big games have come to him. Unfortunately, he also had 4 single digit games, so you're taking a risk.
• TB QB Jameis Winston - 49% owned - Winston's playoff schedule isn't as great as some of the others listed with the Rams stingy defense and the surprisingly stout QB defense of the Falcons, but that Falcons team is currently in a nose dive and the Rams game is surrounded by games against the Saints and Bears, both at home.

More Options: Matt Hasselback, Marcus Mariota

Week 13 Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups

Spencer Ware (RB, KC)

38% Owned on Fleaflicker

Spencer Ware is a big "who?" kind of name. One of the best non-NFL employed talent evaluators Matt Waldman wrote in depth about Ware, and stated when Ware entered the draft that he could be a great NFL-caliber back. Well, Ware showed his skills on Sunday putting up the current fifth highest scoring RB performance of week 12 in his first start. With West healing a hamstring injury, there's no promise that Ware doesn't get more time as West gets rest to fully recoup. I'd be quick to grab Ware if he's still available because he's a potential RB1 for any week he's starting in West's place.

David Johnson (RB, ARI)

58% Owned on Fleaflicker

Both of Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington suffered injuries on Sunday, making David Johnson the next man up. He's already owned in many leagues thanks to a lot of time he spent vulturing from the two backs ahead of him, but he's still present on more than a third of waiver wires out there. Johnson's physically talented and even though he might be a better receiver than a rusher right now, any back in a high powered offense (like the Cardinals) will be give plenty of chances to score. If Johnson's available in your league, he should be picked up.

Ameer Abdullah (RB, DET)

55% Owned on Fleaflicker

Finally. the Lions coaches have come to the decision that they don't want to get fired, so Ameer Abdullah has been reinstated as the lead back. Although Riddick is obviously the 2 minute drill guy, Abdullah will be seeing the majority of the on the ground carries which is great for a player with so much big play potential- even if Joique Bell was the one who put up more fantasy points last week. As long as Abdullah is the starter (and according to Caldwell he is as "he's earned more playing time"), I'll believe in Abdullah's potential to be an every week low end RB1, so of course that means he needs to be owned everywhere.

Shaun Draughn (RB, SF)

12% Owned in Fleaflicker

Continuing to somehow show PPR Value, over the last 3 weeks Draughn has put up the 11th highest average per game amongst RBs in PPR. It seems consistent at this point that Draughn will put up 50 yards on the ground, get at least 5 targets in the air, and turn those 5 targets into at least 35 more yards. Draughn is becoming a very sneaky every week PPR FLEX and faces an easy playoff schedule with only the Bengals to worry about. Should be owned in all PPRs as a starter, and is seemingly worth a bench spot in all standard leagues.

Javorius Allen (RB, BAL)

51% Owned on Fleaflicker

Allen's yet to play at time of writing, but I'll be honest to say I'm not high on his talent. Hopefully for his owners, Allen is good enough to at least not be forced into a timeshare but even if he is, he'd still likely be the more valuable player in that split. The running back market isn't going to be very strong for the rest of the season and regardless of what he puts up tonight he'll keep being given the opportunity to put up more over the rest of the season as the Ravens audition him as their next back.

Theo Riddick (RB, DET)

29% Owned on Fleaflicker

Riddick's just an every week feature here at this point, continuing to show PPR value even in weeks where his yardage is weak. He's a low-end RB2 in PPR leagues, and should be owned in every single one.

Other Running Back Options: 

• DAL RB Robert Turbin - 21% Owned - Turbin operated as the backup behind perennially injured Darren McFadden. He's worth handcuffing if you're a McFadden owner.
• TB RB Charles Sims - 58% owned - Overrated by the fantasy community, Sims is a decent back playing behind a far better back. He offers some low-end PPR flex value, and minimal standard value outside of a handcuff.
• MIA RB Jay Ajayi - 32% owned - Ajayi is still looking pretty good on the field but is just another handcuff to add to your bench right now.
• NE RB Brandon Bolden - 12% Owned - Truth is the Patriots don't seem to show any favoritism between either back behind Blount, but Bolden has looked like the one they've been trying to get more usage out of ever since Lewis went down. He had a big play in Denver, but White had some big plays in Buffalo and that didn't help him. He's more of a desperate add than a must have.
• TEN RB David Cobb - 38% owned - The light hasn't turned on for Cobb yet but the competition isn't doing much better. I'm still believing in the talent, at least for one more week.

More Options: Denard Robinson, Rod Smith, Tim Hightower, Dexter McCluster, Jamize Olawale, Orleans Darkwa, Bilal Powell, Stevan Ridley, Matt Jones, Ahmad Bradshaw, Antonio Andrews

Week 13 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Pickups

Stevie Johnson (WR, SD)

52% Owned on Fleaflicker

Operating as the #1 WR for the Chargers, Johnson finally managed to have a good game for standard and has been on a PPR tear the last few weeks with at least seven catches in each of his last three games. Johnson's not going to replace Keenan Allen's value in this offense, but he's at least getting enough opportunities to be considered as an every week FLEX for the rest of the season.

Kendall Wright (WR, TEN)

52% Owned On Fleaflicker

Playing only half of the snaps, Wright was targeted seven times but only caught two catches for a meager 19 yards. We've all seen Wright's talent in the past, and he's been top 10 in the league the last two years in missed tackles forced and average yards after the catch, so a bad week coming off injury that he didn't play the full snaps in shouldn't be an indicator of his inability to put up points. Very talented and one of the better weapons that the Titans have, Wright should be able to get rolling as he returns to full health. Hopefully.

Devin Funchess (WR, CAR)

16% Owned on Fleaflicker

Funchess logged the most snaps of any Panthers wide receiver on Thanksgiving and it's obvious his role is growing even if the stat line has yet to really follow. Funchess is a huge target that Newton keeps trying to make happen in the end zone, so there's still potential for his value to appear this year. I'm not shying away from Funchess in any sized league and would put him on my bench anywhere I can.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)

15% Owned on Fleaflicker

Two down weeks have been bad for Crowder but I still believe in the PPR floor he's had for a majority of this season. He unfortunately had a TD taken away from him that would've saved his fantasy day and returned him to the weekly 9 points he's seen all but once since week 3, but if he can't manage to come up with better value this upcoming week, then it might be time to let go.

One of Jeff Janis or Ty Montgomery (WRs, GB)

3% Owned and 9% Owned on Fleaflicker

We all saw it, Adams isn't good. There's nothing about Adams that looks particularly good. Between lazy route running and drops and the lack of production (he's been targeted 47 times since week 9 and only caught 22 for 222 yards), it's only a matter of time until someone takes over. Janis saw time in place of Adams for a tiny portion of Week 12, but Ty Montgomery was his replacement earlier in the season before an injury took him off the field. There's no news on which way this is going to go, but Janis has been one of metrics twitter biggest names since he's an athletic marvel while Montgomery has actually seen the field and produced. Pick your poison and hope you're right, I'll be going for Janis' upside myself.

Other Wide Receiver Options: 

• SEA WR Doug Baldwin - 41% owned - It happens every year that Baldwin goes off for a game and disappears, and this year it's already happened once before. Baldwin has never been a player anyone's comfortable starting and it's hard to say with any certainty that he'll have value again next week. However, there's worse players you could own.
• ATL WR Leonard Hankerson - 15% owned - Hankerson's returned in week 11 with nearly 40 yards and a touchdown, but he's far from every week startable and projects mostly as a low-end FLEX right now with a sluggish Falcons offense as he once again recovers from injury.
• BAL WR Kamar Aiken - 36% owned - Aiken is regularly appearing on this list every week, and was expected to make another appearance on the upper portion of wide receivers, but a torn ACL for Joe Flacco changes things. He's likely just a bench depth player now, unless Matt Schaub goes vintage on us.
• CHI WR Marquess Wilson - 10% owned - He'll mostly be a handcuff for Alshon Jeffery, but he's a decent player on his own and could still see a bigger role in this offense.
• CHI WR Eddie Royal - 25% owned - Speaking of Bears receivers, Royal might return this week. Watch out for news about this.
• NYG WR Dwayne Harris - 14% owned - The Giants seem to be committed to getting Harris involved in the passing game, even if it means ignoring Odell Beckham somewhat to do so.
• DAL WR Cole Beasley - 12% owned - Beasley has been the only player to see any sort of increased value with Matt Cassel at helm for the Cowboys. He's averaged 7 fantasy points in standard with Cassel at QB vs 5 with Romo.
• MIA WR DeVante Parker - 15% owned - I'm not a big Parker fan, and the game against the Jets wasn't a particularly good one. Parker scored a touchdown near the end of the blowout against light coverage, but failed to make any impact throughout the rest of the game, dropping some easy catches even. He's more of an add for his potential than anything he's actually done.
• ARI WR J.J. Nelson - 1% owned - A role player as a deep threat in an offense that loves to go deep, Nelson has volatile weekly value that's really dependent on the health of the wide receivers in front of him.

More Options: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Bryan Walters, Albert Wilson, Nelson Agholor, Lance Moore, Ted Ginn, Justin Hardy, Kenny Stills, Josh Huff, Cody Latimer, Seth Roberts

Week 13 Tight End Waiver Wire Pickups

Scott Chandler (TE, NE)

6% Owned on Fleaflicker

Chandler hasn't been that great for the Patriots outside of a few plays here and there, but if Gronk should miss any time- those targets will have to go to someone. It's looking less and less like Gronk's injury is going to be serious, so Chandler might not be anything more than a one week go, but we've seen plenty of players miss time this year and there's another tight end on this very list that's been held out for far longer than we've anticipated...

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, TB)

46% Owned on Fleaflicker

An every week fixture as we wait for his return, there still is no other tight end showing more value on the waivers. That's just the sad state of TE waivers.

Cameron Brate (TE, TB)

0% Owned on Fleaflicker

At the same time, I'm tired of waiting and so is Cameron Brate apparently. Since the bye week, Brate's put up 3 touchdowns in 6 games while in a split with Brandon Myers. Well, the Bucs finally committed to one of the two, giving Brate 33 of the teams 47 passing snaps, making him the honorary starter in place of ASJ. He put up his second back to back 10 point performance and at this point, he might be worth grabbing since no one seems to have any idea when ASJ is returning.

Crockett Gillmore (TE, BAL)

26% Owned on Fleaflicker

Gilmore's yet to play at time of writing, but his game against the Browns doesn't project to be great given the QB situation and how great the Browns have been against tight ends. You're not finding many other tight ends with value still on the waivers, however.

Other Tight End Options: 

• CHI TE Zach Miller - 16% owned - Miller has shown good chemistry with Cutler and been a go-to since Cutler's return. He's even been better with Martellus Bennett playing alongside him than not, so his value might be independent of whoever else is playing.
• DEN TE Owen Daniels - 35% owned - The other half of this tandem, Daniels has been more productive than Davis despite seeing less time. Tight End is a position of desperation if you don't have a solid starter, so you tell me why not.
• DEN TE Vernon Davis - 43% owned - Despite seeing more snaps than Owen Daniels, he did less. The changing of QBs has helped boost this offense, but yet to boost Davis' value.
• SEA TE Luke Willson - 2% owned - Luke Willson has two L's in his last name and that's important because each L stands for a loss, one for the downgrade from Jimmy Graham to Luke Willson and another for anyone who starts Luke Willson. The tight end position for this team has not held much value and Willson may be a better fit as a traditional tight end than Graham, but he's a desperate add since the Seahawks barely seemed to throw to this position when they had an elite target there.

More Options: Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Darren Fells, Vance McDonald, Kyle Rudolph

Week 13 Defense (D/ST) Waiver Wire Pickups

Chicago Bears

10% Owned on Fleaflicker

The Bears defense has faced Phillip Rivers, Nick Foles, Brock Osweiler, and Aaron Rodgers in the last four weeks and came out of all four with at least 7 fantasy points on the day. Vic Fangio has done an amazing job turning a defense full of misfits into a decently functioning group that is somehow able to not allow more than 20 points four weeks in a row. Now, they're going to see the Blaine Gabbert led 49ers (in a revenge game for Fangio, no less)- which should've been a huge joke but has surprisingly been somehow functional as Gabbert has played the best 3 game stretch of his career, and maybe his best 3 games in general. With few targets to throw to, no big name running back to fear, and an overmatched head coach- the Bears seem like they're going to do well again. Especially since Fangio is still likely very angry that he was passed over for the head coaching job in favor of Tomsula.

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