2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Relief Pitchers

The Final Chapter

I considered skipping out on this article because of how volatile the closer position is in fantasy baseball. At the end of the day though, every fantasy team needs closers, dynasty and redraft leagues. Closers are the only relief pitchers we really value in the fantasy baseball community unless you play in a holds league. Even then, teams are changing the structure of their bullpen so often that there is little stability. Sure that means the guys at the top are fairly valuable, but it also means it's hard to gauge anyone outside of the top seven.

Here's my best attempt at ranking relief pitchers for dynasty leagues. Just realize these rankings are even more subject to change than my others.

This is last chapter of RotoBaller's dynasty / keeper league fantasy baseball rankings. We've previously analyzed dynasty rankings for Third Base, Catcher, Shortstop, First Base, Second Base, Outfield Part 1 and Part 2, and Starting Pitchers Part 1 and Part 2

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out all of RotoBaller's 2015 fantasy baseball rankings articles & rankings analysis to prepare for your drafts. Let's win some leagues!

 

Tier 1 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

1) Craig Kimbrel, 26, ATL

2) Aroldis Chapman, 26, CIN

3) Greg Holland, 29, KC

4) Kenley Jansen, 27, LAD

5) Dellin Betances, 26, NYY

Kimbrel has acheived over 40 saves the past four seasons. He's also had an ERA over two just once in that four year span. Add in a career K/9 of 14.82 and this is your top closer.

Chapman is right there with Kimbrel. His career K/9 is 15.76, and he's topped 35 saves every season since 2012. His major bugaboo is his walk rate. If he can get that under control he might wrestle the top rank from Kimbrel.

Holland may not be as sexy as the other two but for the past two years he's been one of the most consistent relief pitchers in baseball.  He also increased his ground ball rate dramatically over the past year. He happens to pitch for arguably the best defense in baseball. He's capable of providing a sub-2.00 ERA with a K/9 of over 13 for the next few years.

Jansen has been dominant since 2012, and there's nothing to suggest he'll slow down. In fact, he's managed to bring his home run rate down over the past few years while increasing his strikeout totals. Playing for a winning organization like the Dodgers means he should see plenty of saves opportunities as well. He'll miss part of the 2015 season, but the job will be his when he returns.

In the points league I played in last year, the difference between Chapman and Betances was 13 points. Granted, Chapman pitched limited innings due to injury, but Betances wasn't getting any save opportunities. Don't worry about Andrew Miller at all. With Robertson now out of the way, look for Betances to inherit the closer role for the Yankees.

Tier 2 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

6) Sean Doolittle, 28, OAK

7) David Robertson, 29, CWS

8) Trevor Rosenthal, 24, STL

9) Cody Allen, 26, CLE

10) Mark Melancon, 29, PIT

Doolittle may miss some time this season due to a slight tear in his shoulder. That means Tyler Clippard will most likely fill in as the closer. No disrespect to Clippard who I believe is a great set-up guy, but I believe Doolittle will earn his role back when he returns. The Athletics will have a hard time ignoring his strikeout rate, low walk rate, and low earned run average even though he is a lefty.

Robertson worked his magic for the Yankees for years, and now finds himself in a new home with the White Sox. The few obstacles stopping Robertson from being an elite option is his tendency to walk batters, and the increase in home run to fly ball ratios over the past three years. Look for Robertson to continue to be one of the most reliable options going forward.

It's tempting to take the chance on Rosenthal. He pitches for an organization that is great at developing pitchers, he's young, and he's shown flashes of brilliance. However, a walk rate of over five last year has me a bit nervous. If you feel lucky, you could risk Rosenthal over either Doolittle or Robertson.

Allen and his improving strikeout rate are definitely on my radar. The walk rate is still a little high to be considered an elite option, and his resume is fairly short. Add in the fact that the Indians have a potential replacement breathing down his neck in Bryan Shaw, and you can see why I'm a little hesitant. Even so, the risk could be well worth the rewards considering the drop off in the next tier.

Melancon is a personal favorite of mine. He barely ever seems to give up a home run, and he doesn't walk batters. The K/9 could be a little higher but I'll take his consistency any day of the week.

Tier 3 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

11) Steve Cishek, 28, MIA

12) Huston Street, 31, LAA

13) Glen Perkins, 31, MIN

14) Zach Britton, 27, BAL

15) Drew Storen, 27, WAS

The funky delivery of Cishek should keep hitters off balance for years to come. Just beware of his walk rate, and the fact that his line drive rate spiked last year. If his numbers normalize he should be a reliable but not incredibly attractive option for you at closer.

Street would be higher on my list if not for constant injury concerns. When he is on the field, he is one of the most reliable closers out there. He should still have another few years in the tank assuming the injuries don't catch up to him.

Perkins had a bit of an off year, but I trust he'll return to form. Besides, his walk rate was actually down last year which is a trend I like to see. Pitching at spacious Target Field should help his overall stat line too.

Britton is another guy who faces the bias against lefties as closers. His strikeout rate is also pretty low for a closer, and his walk rate is a little high. Thankfully for Britton, he did notch 37 saves so he should get the chance to keep his job. Just watch out for Tommy Hunter.

Based off last year's work I believe Storen is ready to be the closer. I'd like to see a higher strikeout rate, but no one can complain about the walk rate or the earned run average. Storen also had a ground ball rate of over 50 % last year which is really what makes him attractive as a closer. Just watch in case Casey Janssen steals his job.

Tier 4 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

16) Jake McGee, 28, TB

17) Fernando Rodney, 37, SEA

18) Koji Uehara, 39, BOS

19) Hector Rondon, 26, CHC 

20) Joaquin Benoit, 37, SD

McGee's fortunes depend on how Boxberger performs while he is out for a limited time. There's a scenario where I can see Boxberger running away with the job, but McGee did too well last year not to get a second chance. I'd roll the dice on him.

Rodney has been insane since 2012 pitching to a 2.21 ERA, 10.14 K/9, and 133 saves in 207.2 innings pitched. However, 3.42 BB/9 over that same span is not great. The Mariners do have Danny Farquhar if Rodney stumbles. He should get every chance to be the closer after saving 48 games last year.

I don't need to tell you guys about the greatness of Uehara. You already know. So why is he so low on my list? It's his age and the drastic increase in home run percentage last year. I'm not sure he has many good years left. He's a solid win now piece, but you'll be looking for another reliever sooner rather than later.

I love what the Cubs are doing, and I think Rondon will be one of the main benefactors. He proved himself last year, and should get the chance to repeat this year. My concerns are he only has one year of success at the major league level, and the Cubs have Pedro Strop right behind him.

Benoit gets the chance to be the closer on a much improved Padres team. Over the last two years he's pitched to an insane 1.79 ERA with 10.16 K/9. He has only 35 saves in that span. He should have a year or two left pitching at an excellent level, but be wary of Kevin Quackenbush.

Tier 5 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

21) Jonathan Papelbon, 34, PHI

22) Wade Davis, 29, KC

23) Luke Gregerson, 30, HOU

24) Ken Giles, 24, PHI

25) Brad Boxberger, 26, TB

Papelbon has been one of the game's dominant closers for years now. He'd be higher on my list except that he's getting older and who knows if or where the Phillies will trade him. If he's traded to a team with an established closer, his value will fall a lot.

Davis was the best setup man in the game last year pitching to a 1.00 ERA, 13.63 K/9, and 2.88 BB/9 in 72 innings. So why is he not higher on my rankings? Simply put, he's blocked by Holland. However, if anything were to happen to Holland, you should rush to pick up Davis.

Gregerson finally gets his chance to be a closer after years of excelling elsewhere in the bullpen. Gregerson is part of a much improved Astros unit, but he's easily the best candidate to close. Look for him to be the closer for the next two years at least.

Giles is the heir apparent to the closer role for the Phillies if Papelbon leaves. While he has only one season in the majors, a 1.18 ERA, 12.61 K/9, and 2.17 walk rate should have you dreaming of his potential as a closer. If Papelbon is traded, Giles would make the jump to tier 4 at least.

Boxberger could be the closer for the Rays while Jake McGee is out. There is definitely a scenario where Boxberger could run away with the closer gig after pitching to a 2.37 ERA and 14.47 K/9 in 64 innings last year. It also doesn't hurt that McGee is a lefty while Boxberger is a righty, and new manager Kevin Cash is more traditional than Joe Maddon.

Tier 6 - Dynasty / Keeper Relief Pitcher Rankings

26) Andrew Miller, 29, NYY

27) Jenrry Mejia, 25, NYM

28) Addison Reed, 26, ARI

29) Neftali Feliz, 26, TEX

30) Santiago Casilla, 34, SF

There is currently a battle between Miller and Betances for who will be the Yankees closer. I fully expect Betances to win because he's a dominant righty. However, it's hard to ignore Miller's 2.02 ERA, 14.87 K/9, and 2.45 BB/9 in 62 innings pitched last year. Miller becomes a very attractive piece if Betances were to struggle or miss any time due to injury.

Meija had a solid year for the Mets last year. I would like to see him bring down his home run rate and his walk rate before I recommend him in a higher tier. If he can do those two things, he will be an effective closer. Don't worry about Parnell. He's coming off a major injury. Meija is the guy to own.

In terms of ERA, Reed had an ugly season. However, his xFIP suggest he's a full point better than that and his strikeout rate is fairly attractive for a closer. Don't let the ERA from last year scare you away, he can be a much better pitcher.

Injuries have plagued Feliz the past few years. However, he's young enough that he can still rebound from them. Look for an ERA in the mid-3's and his K/9 to rebound as well. There's really not much bullpen depth behind him for the Rangers either, so he'll get every opportunity to remain their closer.

Casilla has been effective when he has been on the field, but he's continually struggled with playing a full season. His strikeout rates are also a little low for a closer, and he's yet to break 30 saves in a single season. He's not a bad deep option, but the Giants do also have Sergio Romo in case Casilla falters.

Parting Shots

That's it for my relief pitcher rankings. These rankings could change quickly. Unless you have deep rosters don't bother handcuffing your relievers. It's a waste of a valuable roster spot.

That's also going to do it for my dynasty rankings articles. Next up will be some dynasty profile pieces where I go deeper into the numbers with lesser known players. I hope you guys enjoyed reading my ranking series, and as always feel free to reach out to me on twitter @RekedFantasy.

Until next time Rotoballers,

Rek