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Matt Shoemaker: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper
As is with virtually every team every season, the five men who made up the Angels' opening day starting rotation were not the same who ended in it. Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs went from bottom of the rotation starters to promising rotation staples, but they ultimately hit the disabled list and missed the playoff push. Hector Santiago was sent to the bullpen in early May after he posted an 0-6 record and 5.19 ERA. That opened the door for Matt Shoemaker. After allowing two runs in five innings in his debut, Shoemaker stayed in the rotation until he missed the last two weeks with an oblique strain.
Shoemaker’s 2014 regular season ended with him going 16-4 in 20 starts with a 3.04 ERA and a 124/24 K/BB rate. Along the way, he came in second in voting for the AL Rookie of the Year. For a 27-year-old rookie who went undrafted and amassed a 5.38 ERA over four years in Triple-A, that’s pretty good.
Heading into 2015 with a lock on his spot in the rotation, Shoemaker might be in for a bit of regression during his sophomore campaign.
We all know there are plenty of examples of rookies getting figured out their second year and not being as productive as a result. Shoemaker’s minor league stats leave some cause for concern. He had a 8.21 K/9 in 2014, yet in his last two seasons in Triple-A, he averaged 7.08 K/9. Shoemaker also relied on a low .286 BABIP in 2014, which is much better than the .350 and .332 numbers he put up with Salt Lake. He figured out how to miss a lot more bats and induce much worse contact, but last year's improvements might not be sustainable.
Shoemaker might also rely too much on his split-fingered fastball. In 2014, he threw the pitch 23.3 percent of the time, the most of his secondary pitches. His splitter garnered his highest production level according to his Fangraphs pitch values at 11.2 runs saved, while his next highest is his slider at 1.1 runs saved. It is not a flaw to have one dominant pitch among average remaining stuff, however it is just another caution flag to throw up when looking at his 2015 fantasy potential.
In Summary
Based on early evidence, people aren’t sure where to rank Shoemaker. I’ve seen him anywhere from 36th to 73rd among starting pitchers. At Rotoballer, we have him at 51st which seems about right to me. With minimal big league experience and not much room to improve from his rookie season, I would be hesitant to take him any higher than the tenth round of a 12 team draft. He does provide some value if he falls further in a draft. Jacob deGrom is getting drafted in a similar position on most draft boards, yet he should easily be taken before Shoemaker.
