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Daniel Berger Returns After Long Layoff in Austin
Daniel Berger has not played competitive golf in almost four months. The American golfer struggled before the layoff including missing cuts in four of the last five tournaments played. Berger's big red flag was the putter. He ranks 121st in strokes gained to putting at -0.187. It gets worse when one dives deeper. Berger ranks 144th in putts per round with 29.45. Worse, his one-putt percentage is 163rd at a mere 36.39%. Second rounds are probably the ugliest where Berger averages 30.22 putts per round. With the uncertainty here, it may be wiser to fade Berger from a DFS or betting standpoint.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
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Matthieu Pavon Searching for a Much-Needed Breakthrough in Mexico
Matthieu Pavon has struggled for much of the season, making just 11 of 23 cuts with only four top-25 finishes. His recent results follow the same pattern, as he made just one cut in three fall events, finishing T53. He now heads to the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he is making his tournament debut. Vidanta Vallarta is a wide-open course with little penalty for missing fairways, so players who hit the ball long off the tee and are strong with their long irons should find success. Pavon ranks 80th in driving distance but 143rd in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. His overall profile is not encouraging either, as he ranks 130th in total strokes gained (-0.402 strokes per round) and 152nd on approach (-0.498), while losing a combined -0.041 strokes per round around the greens and putting. There is little to be excited about in Pavon's game right now, and he is best left out of lineups until he shows signs of a turnaround.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Andrew Novak Looking to Make Another Run in Mexico
Andrew Novak came out firing at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, posting an opening-round 64 before cooling off and ultimately finishing T44. He now turns to the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he has recorded finishes of T15, T49, and T8 in three appearances. Success at Vidanta Vallarta typically hinges on distance off the tee and long-iron approach play. Novak ranks 99th in driving distance and 96th in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. He does have a strong overall profile, ranking 62nd on approach (+0.218 strokes per round), 32nd around the greens (+0.225), and 43rd in strokes gained tee to green (+0.497). If he can get his putter to cooperate (158th, -0.492 strokes per round), Novak has a chance to put together another strong tournament in Mexico.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Billy Horschel Hoping to Carry Momentum Into Mexico
Billy Horschel has put together a solid run lately, posting finishes of T13 and T21 in his last two starts, and looks to keep it going at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. This run can be attributed to Horschel's approach game clicking, as he has gained strokes in nine of his last 12 events while ranking 52nd on the season (+0.278 strokes per round). Vidanta Vallarta typically rewards players who are long off the tee, and Horschel ranks just 119th in driving distance. He also sits in just the 54th percentile in proximity from over 200 yards, a range that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. Despite the questionable course fit, Horschel has momentum on his side and could be an intriguing dark horse option to contend this week.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Rasmus Hojgaard in Search of Form at This Week's Mexico Open
It's been a year to forget for Rasmus Hojgaard, who failed to get inside the top 100 on the FedEx Cup points list and has had a withdrawal and a missed cut since the fall swing began. Despite his incredible length off the tee and putting proficiency, the Dane has been abysmal with the irons. He's averaging minus-0.180 strokes gained on approach (ranked 122nd) on the year, and lost a whopping eight-and-a-half strokes over his last two starts. That won't get it done on any professional golf circuit, let alone the PGA Tour. And until he shows some sort of rebound, he's an impossible DFS recommendation.
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Emiliano Grillo Hoping to Get Back on Track in Mexico
Emiliano Grillo has not been at his best during the fall slate, recording a T52 in Bermuda, a T43 in Utah, and a missed cut at the Biltmore Championship. He looks to get things going again at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he has just one finish better than T33 in four attempts, a T5 in 2023. Success here typically hinges on distance off the tee and long-iron approach play. Grillo ranks just 131st in driving distance, but ranks 58th in proximity from 200+ yards (48'8"), a distance that accounted for more than 43% of approach shots here last year. While Vidanta Vallarta is widely considered a bomber's paradise, Grillo plays a more precision-based game, ranking eighth in driving accuracy and 56th on approach. His short game is also a concern, as he ranks 126th around the greens (-0.135 strokes per round) and 115th in putting (-0.209). Grillo has been struggling as of late, and his lack of distance makes him a risky play in Mexico.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Christiaan Bezuidenhout a Risky Play at Vidanta
Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished T17 at the Baycurrent Classic, his seventh top-25 finish of the season. He now looks to keep it going at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, where he is making his tournament debut. Vidanta Vallarta is a wide-open course with little penalty for missing fairways, so players who hit the ball long off the tee and are strong with their long irons should find success. Bezuidenhout ranks just 142nd off the tee (-0.343 strokes per round), mainly due to a lack of distance, where he ranks 156th. He is also 150th in proximity from over 200 yards, a distance that accounted for 43.9% of approach shots here last year. His saving grace may be his short game, where he ranks 31st around the greens (+0.233 strokes per round) and 17th in putting (+0.443). Bezuidenhout's lack of distance and poor long-iron play make him a difficult option to trust this week.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Tom Kim an Intriguing Start at Mexico Open Debut
It was a bounce-back season for Tom Kim in 2026, in which he picked up his first victory since 2023 and had a slew of top-20-or-better finishes down the closing stretch. The South Korean was one of the best ball strikers this season, ranking seventh in strokes gained on approach (0.653). Much of his success came when the putter began cooperating, as he spent the first half of the season losing an average of -0.490 strokes on the greens. Compare that to the 0.290 flip to the positive side over his closing 11 events, and it's clear where the boost in his game and tournament finishes came from. He's coming to Vidanta Vallarta for the first time this week, where he'll need both the iron play and flat stick to be sharp. It's a bigger ballpark that has plenty of long approach shots, but Kim should find plenty of birdie-making opportunities to be a useful DFS asset
Source: Data Golf
Source: Data Golf
Pierceson Coody Not Getting the Fall Swing Results
Pierceson Coody has not finished better than 50th in three Fall Swing events. The American golfer has two Top 10 results but the last one was way back in February at the WM Phoenix Open. Coody has largely struggled since the start of the summer aside from the US Open and the OPEN Championship. However, the Fall has brought even more issues. Coody floundered during the middle rounds in Asheville (72-71) and Japan (75-72). His numbers have been interesting given how well he has started off (66-67-65). The problem is Round 2 so Coody has DFS potential for the opening round but maybe a fade the rest of the event.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Kevin Roy a Question Mark at the Vidanta World Mexico Open
Kevin Roy endured a tough weekend at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. The American golfer never truly got going, and the 73 in the third round was troubling given all the missed putting chances. Roy did drive the ball solidly (7.2 yards above field average). The Mexican course stands at over 7,400 yards. Roy ranks 69th in driving distance (307.7 yards) and 46th in driving accuracy (64.18%). Did the conditions impact the golfer more in Bermuda, or was it his putter? That is the big concern, as maybe fading Roy from a betting and DFS perspective could be prudent in Mexico.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Harry Hall Returns to Mexico After Good Result in Utah
Harry Hall took a few weeks off between Utah and Mexico. The English golfer ended up T-13 at the Bank of Utah Championship with four rounds in the 60's. Hall has enjoyed 11 rounds under 70 over his past 12. Overall in 2026, his putting has gained 0.376 strokes which ranks 23rd. His putts-per-round of 28.25 ranks 10th and his one-putt percentage of 42.84% (11th) makes Hall more viable to contend at VidantaWorld. The one concern is the Par-71, 7,456-yard Mexican course. Birdies remain on the menu and Hall has a birdie-or-better conversion percentage of 33.98% (20th). Hall, at the least, has the ability to be a DFS option for the event in Mexico.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Joel Dahmen Still Struggling with Mexico Up Next
Joel Dahmen has improved a little during the Fall Swing. The American golfer made consecutive cuts but finished (T-44) at the weather-shortened Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Opening round promise seems to slowly get squashed by missed opportunities. Mistakes around the green and not just putting have been issues over the previous three events. Dahmen lost -1.1 strokes around the green and followed a 65 with a 71-70 in Bermuda. One of the potential options from a DFS perspective may be to ponder his first-round start this week. Dahmen's inability to put together even three rounds of solid golf sets him up more from a DFS perspective.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Blades Brown Set for Another Consistent Result in Mexico
Blades Brown has jumped between the Korn Ferry and PGA Tour in 2026. The American golfer has made a total of 16 cuts in 18 appearances. Brown has 13 Top 25 results in those 16 weekends. The last disastrous result was the Wyndham Championship in August where putting fell apart (2.76 strokes lost). Brown's biggest asset is the ability to drive the ball long and mostly accurately. Seven of the previous eight events have seen plus results from the driving side including 8.8 yards above at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship (runner-up result). Brown is one to keep an eye on as a potential Top 20 wager come this weekend in Mexico.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Max Homa Continuing to Put Reps in Ahead of 2027
Sitting just outside the cool kids' club at 53rd on the FedEx Cup Points List, Max Homa is preparing for an important season next year. One that could give him crucial opportunities early, with a strong showing during this fall run. The 35-year-old already posted a T26 in Utah and a T13 in Japan in his first two starts during this alternate season. However, his iron play and short game are terribly suspect, ranking outside the top 100 in both strokes gained metrics. Putting needs to save the day more often than not, and while that has worked to some degree throughout the year, it's much more proficient at tournaments where the winning score stays less than -20 under par. This week's Mexico Open has hit or exceeded that mark in two of the four years played as a PGA Tour stop. Homa could be a decent filler piece with a strong chance of playing all four rounds, but expectations for how high he could climb this leaderboard should be tempered.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Ben Griffin Looks to Follow up on Near Miss From Last Season
After doing just enough to sneak into the top 50 in the FedEx Cup with a decent summer run, Ben Griffin is hitting up the fall events with a trip to Vidanta Vallarta this week to revisit the track where he finished T4 last season. A long course used to be exactly the kind of place where the former Tarheel could flex his muscle, especially when putting was the ultimate decider. However, 2026 has been different than the previous breakout season. The 30-year-old has seen a significant decline in long-iron performance, with a 30% drop since January in strokes gained per shot, greens in regulation, and proximity to the hole from beyond 200 yards from his two-year baseline. Not only that, but despite closing the regular season ranked 45th in strokes gained putting, he lost strokes in four of his final five starts. All of this suggests a hefty amount of work was needed between then and now, which seems far-fetched given the time of year. It's okay to keep Griffin on the shelf this week.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Wyndham Clark Looking to Bounce Back This Week at Vidanta Vallarta
It was a disappointing trip to Japan for Wyndham Clark for the Baycurrent Classic a couple of weeks ago, finishing T63. It was the first appearance in a month, and while the lack of strokes-gained data makes it hard to pinpoint what exactly went wrong, it's easy to assume that the putter wasn't working with the same efficiency that won three times in 2026. The US Open Champion will make his third career appearance this week at the Mexico Open, his first since 2023. He's struggled off the tee at this venue, averaging -0.307 strokes gained over his eight rounds played. Vidanta Vallarta is a bigger ballpark, and the 32-year-old needs his driver to cooperate more to improve his record here, especially when scores reach -20 under par or more. Though he still commands consideration in DFS lineups.
Source: PGA Tour
Source: PGA Tour
Davis Thompson Having Issues with the Fall Swing as Bermuda Looms
Davis Thompson was on a hot streak going into the fall swing. The American golfer had three straight results inside the top 15, including back-to-back top-10 efforts. At Asheville, that all changed when Thompson could not get out of his own way in a second round that saw him miss the cut with a 75. Missed putts and errant shots continue to plague him in Utah and especially at the Baycurrent Classic. Thompson opened up with a 73 there and never truly factored into contention. Bermuda could feature its own issues as the golfer averages 29.45 putts per the first two rounds. Add in his 30.4% birdie or better conversion percentage (116th), and Thompson could be one to fade, especially from a betting perspective.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Austin Eckroat Returns at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Austin Eckroat has taken a little more than a month off from golf. The American golfer posted a Top 25 (T-24) at Asheville late last month. The shorter course in Bermuda (6,928 yards) should help Eckroat but his 59.8% driver accuracy - 103rd) is a mild concern. Eckroat showed in Asheville he could make birdies just consistently enough and managed all four rounds in the 60's. The Bermuda course did show its teeth last year (-12 was good for victory). Port Royal Golf Course can feature changeable conditions which may cause hesitation for those looking at Eckroat from a DFS standpoint.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Denny McCarthy Appears in Bermuda Off Solid Baycurrent Classic Result
Denny McCarthy missed the cut in Utah and Asheville. The American golfer finished T-3 at the 3M Open three months ago. The T-29 at the Baycurrent Classic appeared like a get-well effort for McCarthy who gained 1.93 strokes to putting and was 8% more accurate on drives compared to the rest of the field. The Butterfield in Bermuda is a course that McCarthy has never played before. The one aspect that helps McCarthy is the short course (6.828 yards, Par-71). Another red flag is driver accuracy, however (59.77% - 104th). McCarthy can get hot on the putter which does make him a DFS possibility in Bermuda.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Joel Dahmen Could Struggle Once More in Bermuda
Joel Dahmen has had trouble this fall swing. The American golfer missed the cut in Asheville and then could not make enough birdies in Utah. After an opening-round 65, Dahmen mostly struggled. The final round 71 was a microcosm of the second half of 2026 so far. Off the tee, Dahmen often lacks the yardage (296.8). He is extremely accurate at 73.8% (2nd), but courses like Bermuda do not always reward that. Dahmen averages 29.48 putts per round (138th). Worse, two years ago the Butterfield turned into a complete disaster, including a missed cut and losing 3.06 strokes gained. Dahmen may be a golfer to fade in Bermuda this week.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
Luke Clanton Tries to Capitalize off Big Result in Utah
Luke Clanton has had an up-and-down 2026 season. The American golfer, however, posted a T-7 at the Bank of Utah Championship earlier in October. Next to the Puerto Rican Open, it was his best result of 2026. More importantly, Clanton put four good rounds together, including a final-round 62. The problem is consistency. Part of that is metrics like putting and driving, where Clanton drove the ball 1.7 yards above the field average in Utah. Also, he gained 0.54 strokes in putting, and that was missing in Bermuda last year. That led to a missed cut for Clanton. His volatility makes the golfer a risky DFS and betting option for this week.
Source: PGATour.com
Source: PGATour.com
