Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 9 Lineups

November 6, 2026

Brandon's fantasy football start 'em and sit 'em booms and busts for Week 9 of 2026. Sneaky starts that may boom, and typical starters who will disappoint.

Eight weeks into the 2026 season, we have enough matchup data to carry real weight instead of reflecting a handful of fluky early results, which is why sorting the true boom-and-bust candidates for Week 9 matters and can help you separate from your opponent and secure a much-needed victory. Defenses that have consistently held running backs under 4.0 yards per carry or limited wide receivers to low target efficiency now have enough games behind them that you can trust those trends more than a single outlier performance. That clarity directly affects whether a player is worth starting or better left on the bench. Building the optimal lineup at this point is less about chasing the highest projected points and more about recognizing where volume and game script are likely to create a ceiling or where a tough coverage situation will cap it. The difference between those outcomes has already swung plenty of head-to-head matchups.

Week 8 offered a clear reminder of how quickly those edges can appear or disappear. Tyler Allgeier turned a late-week opportunity into nearly 200 total yards and two scores after the Cardinals’ other backs went down, finishing with over 35 points in leagues where he was started in fewer than one in five of them. Adonai Mitchell and a couple of other low-ownership receivers also cleared 25 points when the targets finally aligned. On the other side, established options like Zay Flowers (zilch) and Drake London finished with under two points each against defenses that had already shown they could limit perimeter production, and even Jonathan Taylor’s usual volume produced only single digits once the game script and efficiency both tilted the wrong way. Those results show that the players who beat projections often did so because the underlying usage and the defensive matchup both cooperated, while the ones who disappointed usually ran into the exact combination of limited targets and stingy coverage that the larger sample size had already flagged.

With only a couple of teams on bye and several high-total games on the Week 9 slate, the same process applies to the upcoming matchups. The defenses that have suppressed fantasy points to a specific position over the last six or seven weeks are the ones most likely to do it again, and identifying the players who still have a clear path to volume against those units is what separates a lineup that holds up from one that gets dragged down by a couple of quiet days. The early season noise has mostly sorted itself out, so the decisions this week carry more weight when it comes to climbing the standings or holding onto a playoff spot. Who are the players I will be “Wooing” this week? Which players are the ones to cause me to “Boo” them? I dive into the numbers to bring them to you and help you come away with a win in Week 9!

Week 9 Fantasy Football Booms

Michael Penix Jr. - QB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Penix has shown multi-score upside for the Falcons over the last several weeks, and the combination of that recent production with a rebound opportunity against the Bengals in Week 9 creates a realistic path for a higher ceiling after the weather-impacted outlier last Sunday.

Through six games, he has completed 104 of 168 passes for 1,282 yards and nine touchdowns against five interceptions, which works out to roughly 214 yards and 1.5 scores per outing while operating with a passer rating near 91.

In the two contests before Week 8, he connected on 25 of 34 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns against San Francisco and 19 of 33 for 225 yards and three scores against Chicago, both without an interception and both finishing above 20 fantasy points.

Those lines came after he had already posted efficient volume in the 220-to-250-yard range in earlier outings, which shows the kind of scoring efficiency that can return when the conditions and matchup allow for cleaner play.

That recent multi-touchdown stretch has a clearer runway against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed roughly 18.4 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, ranking among the more generous units against the position through eight weeks.

The Falcons enter the game with a likelihood of a shootout on the horizon, keeping the overall pass volume elevated rather than forcing a low-scoring script.

This creates more opportunities for the intermediate and deep throws Penix has already turned into scores this year.

His role as the clear starter has remained stable, and the Bengals have not consistently shut down the kind of volume that produced those three-touchdown days in recent weeks.

With the prior efficiency and the matchup favoring higher completion and scoring totals, the setup leans toward a return to the 200-plus yard, multi-touchdown range rather than another limited outing if the volume stays in the high 20s.

After seeing Cam Ward make this secondary look silly on the road last week, fantasy managers could do much worse than considering Penix as a streaming option in Week 9.

Jonah Coleman - RB, Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers

Coleman has stepped into a larger role for the Broncos over the last couple of games, and the combination of that rising usage with a soft matchup against the Panthers in Week 9 creates a clear path for another high-output afternoon.

In his limited appearances, he has carried 30 times for 134 yards at 4.5 yards per attempt with two scores, while also catching nine of 10 targets for 97 yards. This shows the dual-threat involvement that can push fantasy totals higher when the touches arrive.

His Week 8 outing against the Chiefs produced 15 touches, including four catches for 63 yards and a short touchdown run that helped seal the win, finishing with over 20 points and an RB12 ranking for the week.

Snap share climbed to 66 percent in that game after sitting closer to 40-50 percent in prior outings. With RJ Harvey on injured reserve, the early down and red-zone work has continued to tilt his way rather than being split evenly.

Those recent numbers, especially the receiving work out of the backfield, suggest the volume is settling into a range that can support double-digit carries plus a handful of targets consistently.

That recent production has a favorable setup on the road against a Carolina defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league against running backs, allowing roughly 28 fantasy points per game to the position, along with over 115 rushing yards and multiple scores in most contests.

The Panthers have also surrendered a high yards-per-carry average near 4.7, which aligns with the efficiency Coleman has already shown on his carries and opens the door for the kind of chunk plays that turned his last outing into a big fantasy day.

Denver enters the game with a positive game-script lean as favorites, which should keep the overall rush volume elevated and create more scoring opportunities inside the 20 than the tighter contests he has faced recently.

The combination of an emerging lead-back role, solid efficiency on limited touches so far, and a defense that has consistently given up high production to the position makes a return to the 15-to-20 point range more realistic than another quiet day if the touches stay in the double digits.

For the fantasy managers who have stuck with Coleman on the bench, or lucky enough to grab him off the waiver wire, he is already showing signs of becoming the late-season surprise to help push teams over the top.

Keenan Allen - WR, Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys

Allen has remained a steady target for the Colts even as the overall offense has struggled, and the combination of that consistent volume with a favorable Week 9 matchup against the Cowboys at home gives him a realistic path to a higher ceiling than his season averages suggest.

Through seven games, he has caught 36 of 50 targets for 325 yards and one touchdown, which works out to roughly seven targets and 46 yards per outing while operating with a target share near 22 percent that has held steady when he is on the field.

In his last three contests with full involvement, he has converted seven of seven targets for 67 yards against Jacksonville, three of three for 31 against Minnesota, and eight of 11 for 82 against Tennessee. This shows the reliable catch rate that can turn modest yardage into usable fantasy production when the attempts arrive.

Those recent lines have come without a touchdown since Week 3, yet the underlying target volume in the 7-11 range has already produced double-digit fantasy points multiple times this season when the efficiency has been there.

That recent target reliability is a reason to be aware of a Dallas defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league against wide receivers, allowing a high volume of fantasy points to the position and ranking fifth in production conceded through eight weeks.

The Colts enter the game at home with an implied total (23) that should keep the overall pass volume elevated rather than forcing a low-scoring script, which creates more opportunities for the intermediate routes Allen has thrived on this year.

His role as a quick-release option over the middle has already produced efficient games against other defenses that pressure the quarterback, and the Cowboys have not consistently shut down that style of target distribution in recent weeks.

With the target share remaining stable and the matchup favoring higher completion and yardage totals, the setup leans toward another outing in the 60-80 yard range with the chance for a score rather than another quiet afternoon if the volume stays in the high single digits.

Putting all the pieces into place, this is a reason that I envision Allen as being a borderline WR2 in production for Week 9.

Greg Dulcich - TE, Miami Dolphins vs. Detroit Lions

Dulcich has quietly settled into a more consistent role for the Dolphins over the last few weeks. The combination of that rising target volume with a soft matchup against the Lions in Week 9 creates a realistic path for a higher ceiling than his season numbers suggest.

Through his appearances, he has caught 22 of 28 targets for 256 yards, which works out to roughly four targets and 37 yards per outing while operating with a target share that has climbed near 20 percent in recent games.

In his last two outings, he has converted four of six targets for 43 yards against the Patriots and all five looks for 86 yards against the Jets, showing the kind of efficient volume that can push fantasy totals into double digits when the opportunities arrive.

Those recent lines have come without a touchdown so far this season, yet the underlying target volume in the 5-7 range has already produced usable weeks multiple times, particularly when he has been able to turn short throws into yards after the catch.

That recent production draws a bit of excitement when coupled with the matchup against a Detroit defense that has ranked at the bottom of the league against tight ends (nearly 28 FPPG).

The Lions allow nearly 100 receiving yards and multiple scores in most contests.

The Dolphins enter the game at home with an implied total (21.5) that could elevate overall pass volume as the team is chasing points, creating more opportunities for the intermediate routes Dulcich has thrived on this year.

His role as a reliable outlet has already produced efficient games against other defenses, and the Lions have not consistently taken away the middle-of-the-field targets that fuel those production spikes.

With the target share remaining stable and the matchup favoring higher completion and yardage totals, the setup leans toward another outing in the 50-70 yard range with the chance for a score rather than another quiet afternoon if the volume stays in the high single digits.

Dulcich is the type of streaming dart throw who allows fantasy managers to outdo the projected totals going into the matchup.

Week 9 Fantasy Football Busts

Jayden Daniels - QB, Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Rams

Daniels has delivered solid dual-threat production for the Commanders this season, yet the recent combination of limited explosive output and a difficult matchup against the Rams in Week 9 creates a realistic risk that the ceiling stays capped.

Through five games, he has completed 91 of 145 passes for 976 yards and six touchdowns with no interceptions while adding 236 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. That works out to roughly 195 passing yards and 47 rushing yards per outing.

In his most recent appearance, he connected on 16 of 29 passes for 217 yards and one touchdown while managing just two carries for 23 yards against the Eagles, a line that finished closer to 15 fantasy points than the higher totals he has posted in other contests.

That outing followed a 300-yard, two-touchdown performance against San Francisco and a 199-yard day that was heavily boosted by 103 rushing yards and two scores against the Giants. That shows how much of his fantasy value has hinged on either high-volume passing or a big rushing contribution rather than steady efficiency alone.

That can be maddening to rely on as your QB1.

That recent production has a tighter path against a Los Angeles defense that has ranked among the stronger units against the pass this season and has limited opposing quarterbacks to modest overall output in most contests.

The Commanders enter the game at home with an implied total (21) that on the surface could force an extremely high-volume script. But the realistic point of view sees a game script in which the Commanders may struggle to move the ball with consistency.

The Rams have not consistently allowed the intermediate and deep opportunities that produced his higher-yardage days earlier in the year, capping any upside.

With the prior efficiency and the matchup favoring lower completion and scoring totals, the setup leans toward another outing in the 180-220 yard range with limited rushing upside rather than a return to the multi-score ceiling if the volume stays in the high 20s.

Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears

Irving has delivered high-volume production for the Buccaneers this season (rewarding the managers who held onto the hope of a return to previous form), yet the recent combination of efficiency that has varied with the opponent and a difficult road matchup against the Bears in Week 9 creates a realistic risk that the ceiling will be limited.

Through eight games, he has carried 147 times for 728 yards and five touchdowns while catching 18 of 23 targets for 78 yards and one score. That works out to roughly 18 carries and 91 yards per outing.

In his most recent appearance, he handled 27 carries for 170 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons with no receptions, a line that finished near 21 fantasy points after similar volume produced 106 yards and two scores against Carolina.

Those recent totals have come against defenses that ranked among the more generous against the run, which contrasts with earlier outings that produced only 46 yards against Pittsburgh and 61 against Green Bay when the efficiency dropped.

That production could meet a brick wall against a Chicago defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league against running backs this season and has limited opposing backs to modest overall output in most contests.

The Buccaneers enter the game on the road in prime time with an implied total (20.5) that may not allow for a high-volume script.

This reduces the chance for the kind of 20-plus-carry workload that turned a few of his earlier games into the higher-scoring range.

He has been the prototypical workhorse back, yet the Bears have not consistently allowed the kind of yards-per-carry efficiency that produced those 150-plus-yard days earlier in the year.

With the prior production and the matchup favoring lower efficiency and scoring totals, the setup leans toward another outing in the 70-90 yard range with limited receiving upside rather than a return to the multi-score ceiling if the volume stays in the high teens.

With fantasy managers struggling to find options at RB who receive a consistent amount of work, Irving remains a player entrenched in starting lineups. But assuming he meets his projections in Week 9 will likely be a stretch.

Michael Wilson - WR, Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Wilson has drawn consistent target volume for the Cardinals this season, yet the recent combination of production that has varied sharply with the opponent and a difficult road matchup against the Seahawks in Week 9 creates a realistic risk for fantasy managers.

Through eight games, he has caught 45 of 81 targets for 486 yards and two touchdowns. That works out to about 10 targets and 61 yards per outing while operating with a target share near 26 percent.

In his most recent appearance, he converted 8 of 15 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, a line that finished near 27 fantasy points after earlier contests produced only 55 yards against Denver and a quiet 18 yards on seven targets in the previous meeting with Seattle.

Those higher totals have come in games where the overall volume climbed into the double digits, which contrasts with the quieter outings that have followed when the efficiency and opportunities have been more contained.

The second matchup of the season against the Seahawks likely presents a major problem. Seattle’s defense has ranked at the bottom of the league against wide receivers this season and has limited opposing pass-catchers to modest overall output in most contests.

The Cardinals enter the game on the road with the lowest implied total on the week (14.75).

That may look like an opportunity to force an extremely high-volume script. But the chance for the kind of 13-17 target workload that produced his bigger days earlier in the year will be harder to achieve due to the matchup.

His role as a primary option has remained stable, yet the Seahawks have not consistently allowed the intermediate and deep opportunities that fueled those higher-yardage performances. The previous result against them already showed how quickly the production can shrink.

With the prior efficiency and the matchup favoring lower completion and scoring totals (not to mention the uncertainty of starting Gardner Minshew at QB), the setup leans toward another outing in the 40-60 yard range rather than a return to the multi-score ceiling if the volume stays in the high single digits.

Wilson has been a steady lineup play as a WR2 type for most of the season. But in Week 9, he should be viewed as more of a WR3/flex player who will not meet his projections.

Isaiah Likely - TE, New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Likely has been one of the bigger fantasy revelations for the Giants this season. Yet, the inconsistencies of production have varied sharply throughout the season (only finishing as a TE1 in weeks where he has scored).

With the opponent and a difficult road matchup against the Eagles in Week 9, there is a realistic risk that the ceiling stays limited.

Through seven games, he has caught 41 of 60 targets for 395 yards and five touchdowns. That works out to roughly nine targets and 56 yards per outing while operating with a target share near 27 percent.

In his most recent appearance, he converted only two of four targets for 12 yards against the Texans, a quiet line that finished near three fantasy points after earlier contests produced 99 yards and a score against New Orleans and 94 yards with two scores against Washington.

Those higher totals have come in games where the overall volume climbed into the double digits. This contradicts the quieter outings that have followed when the opportunities have been more contained.

Likely must regain his higher-target form against a Philadelphia defense that has ranked near the bottom of the league against tight ends this season and has limited opposing pass-catchers to modest overall output in most contests.

The Giants enter the game on the road as the favorites, which reduces the chance for the kind of 11-13 target workload that produced his bigger days earlier in the year.

His role as a secondary option behind Malik Nabers has yielded productive weeks this season already. But the Eagles bring a defense that can quickly cap any type of upside from the position in a given moment.

With the Giants again starting J.J. McCarthy at QB, there are real concerns about how much volume that Likely could see in this matchup.

This matchup favors lower completion and scoring totals, putting him more in the range of another outing in the 40-60 yard range rather than a return to the multi-score ceiling.

This removes Likely from the “no-brainer” starter range for me and places him squarely in the bucket with other streaming options at TE in Week 9.

Choose wisely!

Thank you all for reading my Booms/Busts article! Obviously, I never get every call right, but I hope I provided you with some sound advice/options that helped get your team set up to win this week. Good luck, and let's stack some wins!

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