2026 Fantasy Basketball Risers and Fallers: Usage Rates

November 4, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo dives into the data from the first few weeks of the NBA season to determine which players are having a bigger impact in the box score this season and should be on your fantasy basketball rosters.

How early is too early to compare NBA players' performances to the baselines they set last season? It might be a tad early, but here we are only two weeks into the season, and I'm ready to start analyzing some early-season trends. I mean, what else was I supposed to do on a day with no games, just sit on my hands?

All but three teams have played at least seven games, and while rotations and roles are still being determined, we're starting to get a pretty good idea of how teams will use players this year. These situations are fluid, of course, and injuries, trades, coaching changes, hot streaks, and slumps can all affect player utilization throughout the season.

But I wanted to dig into the data that we have available so far and see if we could identify some significant changes from last season. I'll be focusing on usage rates in this edition of Risers and Fallers, and will be taking a closer look at some other stat categories in future pieces. All statistics are current through Monday's games (November 2).

Why Do Usage Rates Matter?

I'll keep this part pretty short, but I always think it's important to identify what we're looking for and why it matters. Usage (USG%) is one of the most important statistics we use in fantasy basketball because it's an overall indicator of how involved a player is on offense. This stat basically tells us how often a team's offensive possession is "used" on each player.

We calculate usage rate by taking every possession that ends with a player attempting a field goal, free throw, or turnover and then dividing it by how many total offensive possessions they were on the floor for. It doesn't matter if the shot or free throw was made or missed; if a player was the last person to touch the ball before the other team takes possession, then they have "used" that possession.

Usage rates correlate highly with scoring rates, and while a player who gets credited with an assist on a scoring play does not have that possession counted towards their usage rate, turnovers do count. And we know that assists and turnovers are highly correlated, too. So higher usage rates can also suggest higher assist totals, or at least tell us which players have the ball in their hands the most often on offense.

While there are plenty of players who can derive fantasy value from rebounding or defensive stats as low-usage players, it's considerably harder to do. A player has to be really dominant in several non-scoring categories in order to be an elite fantasy player. Walker Kessler, for example, is inside the top-25 right now on the strength of 10.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks, but the truth is that his 71% FG% is also boosting him quite a bit, too.

Trust me, I am all about efficiency, and I value good percentages and players with more modest turnover rates. But we still want players with high usage rates in fantasy basketball more often than not, and our rosters won't compete without them.

A boost in usage is usually the easiest way to increase a player's offensive potential in a hurry. So let's take a look at some players who have seen the biggest increase in their usage rate this year compared to where they finished last season.

2025 Usage Rate Risers

I excluded players who were playing less than 18 minutes per game because we rarely have interest in those guys outside of the deepest of formats. Here are the players who have increased their usage by 3% or more so far this year.

Scottie Barnes is the runaway winner here. Not only is he playing a full allotment of minutes, but he's also getting over 30% usage for the first time in his career and putting up some big numbers. He's never cracked 20 points per game in his career, but is sitting at 24.4 PPG through seven games this season. That's even more impressive when you consider he was held scoreless back on October 25th, shooting 0-12 from the floor against Minnesota.

We drafted Barnes early for his rebounding, assists, and elite defensive stats, so that big boost in scoring is a nice bonus. However, there is a bit of a catch, as his turnovers are up a whole 1.1 per game to 3.7 per game. He's also shooting at a career-low 69.6% at the free-throw line on 6.6 attempts per game. So he'll need to fix the free-throw shooting and hit some more threes (right now only making 0.4 per game on 3.4 attempts, which is an ugly 12.5%) in order to really be a fantasy force.

Scottie Barnes became the third player in @Raptors history to record 4+ career games with 20+ points, 15+ rebounds and 5+ assists 👏 https://t.co/P9FHdm6tqs

— NBA Fantasy (@NBAFantasy) November 3, 2026

Ultimately, I think he needs Kawhi to stay on the court this season. While his usage has clearly gone up as a product of Leonard's absence, I think having another elite player on the floor for defenses to worry about will ultimately be a win and help him improve his efficiency. He can still set a career-high in scoring this year with a healthy Kawhi Leonard. This is very clearly his team.

I'm going to bounce around a bit, but I think we can discuss Brandon Miller and Naz Reid at the same time, since both players have been thrust into super-high usage roles as a result of Charlotte missing two important starters (Coby White and Kon Knueppel) to start the season.

If you're punting FG%, then you probably don't mind Miller's 38% shooting from the field on 22.5 attempts per game. But man, that is a category killer, and it's far lower than what I expected from him this year. This is another situation where having to do less (when two very capable scorers get back in the lineup) is a net positive for Miller. Defenses will have to respect White and Knueppel as shooters, creating more space for Miller, and he's more likely to force up fewer contested shots.

Reid, meanwhile, is not only playing the most minutes of his career as a full-time starter, but also is attempting 3.4 more shots per game (14.9) than his previous career high (11.5). Naz has also been terribly inefficient, shooting just 39.5% from the field and 61% from the line.

I don't think either guy is a sell-high, though, because an increase in efficiency going forward would offset a drop in their usage. I want to see what Charlotte looks like with a healthy starting five, which we should get to see here quite soon with Coby and Kon ramping up this week.

Okay, back to the list, and I know you don't have all day, so I won't write a novel about all these players.

We knew that Rui Hachimura was likely to have the biggest role of his career so far in Clipper land, and that's definitely been the case. But does he do enough other than score to be a viable fantasy player? Right now, he's shooting just 37% from the floor, so his 2.4 threes and 13.4 points per game have little value in category leagues. He has missed two games with injury, however, and scored 24 points in his most recent start. My expectations are low, but we'll see what happens.

K9's got range. https://t.co/ttq8Z89cmQ

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) October 6, 2026

Free Kel'el Ware! It's the same story this year as it was last, with Ware coming off the bench so far in Milwaukee and teasing us with double-doubles, then scoring two points the next night. I remain optimistic that he'll get to audition as the starter at some point, especially seeing Milwaukee already toss Brayden Burries into the starting lineup the other night. If that happens, then we're off to the races, and the sky is the limit. That's why you drafted him in the sixth round!

Davion Mitchell and Duncan Robinson are both big winners so far this year. Both players were starters last year, but are playing more consistent minutes and getting up more shots. Robinson's 4.0 threes per game on 45% shooting beyond the arc is probably not sustainable, but he's the perfect catch-and-shoot guy to play alongside an elite point guard like Cade Cunningham. He won't finish inside the top-30 (where he is now), but I think he's a good bet for 15 points per game and 3+ threes on pretty good efficiency.

Mitchell is averaging 16 and 8 for the Heat and has been the one Miami role player who's really stepped up. I thought it would be Andrew Wiggins, but I am losing hope for him daily. Ultimately, Pelle Larsson is going to get his chance to do more, too, but Mitchell looks fantastic and is poised for his best year.

I probably value these two players more than most based on their efficiency and low turnovers (Mitchell has had one of the best AST/TO in the league for a few years), but I think they're two guys I would definitely float out there in some trade offers. They're set up for solid seasons, but could easily be at peak value right now.

I had a feeling we'd see Jayson Tatum well over 30% this year, which is why I targeted him often in the first round. But I didn't anticipate Paul George at 27% in Boston. Both guys have some efficiency issues at the moment, but it's pretty clear that they're going to be the main guys on offense for the Celtics, leaving Derrick White in a bit of a bind (and maybe Payton Pritchard, too?)

I think we can lump Franz Wagner into the "more usage might not be the best thing" category, as he's seen his FG% plummet to 42% and turnovers jump to 4.1 per game as a result of having to be the primary playmaker in Orlando with Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs out. I featured Wagner as an efficiency unicorn in my preseason content, and he's been anything but that so far. The counting stats have been nice so far, though!

We can attribute Ajay Mitchell's and Terrence Shannon Jr.'s increases to the injuries that have occurred to teammates. Mitchell is now the Robin to SGA's Batman in OKC with Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both out awhile, so enjoy the ride (and I hope you didn't drop him too early). TSJ's role is still being fleshed out in the wake of Anthony Edwards's injury, and he's on the injury report himself currently. I remain optimistic about his outlook, but Bones Hyland and Jaylen Clark are in the mix for minutes in the backcourt, too

The most added player in fantasy basketball leagues today (by a wide margin) is Karlo Matkovic. He was only 3-4% rostered when I published my WW article on Sunday morning.

He's seen a 4% increase in usage and has a path to 25+ minutes a night while Yves Missi is out.

He gets Utah tomorrow (elite matchup), so check your waiver wire to see if he's still there somehow! https://t.co/RKJenvXVGQ

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) November 3, 2026

How about Karlo Matkovic's last three games? He wasn't even in the rotation to start the season, but an injury to Yves Missi has thrust him into the starting lineup, and he's making the most of it. His skill set is perfect for fantasy hoops, as stretch fives are incredibly valuable. He should be rostered in more than 19% of leagues if he's going to start and play minutes in the 20s.

Last but not least, I want to highlight Darius Garland's inauspicious start in L.A. We all expected big things from Garland as the main guy for the Clippers this year, myself included. But I wasn't expecting 5.4 turnovers per game! He's also shooting a career-low 32.7% from three and averaging just 0.7 steals. The points, threes, and assists are just fine, but part of Garland's appeal over the years was the fact he could put up these stats with a decent FG% and relatively low turnovers for a point guard. Consider me officially concerned.

2025 Usage Rate Fallers

We can't only look at the winners. We have to spend a little time discussing those who have seen major dips in their usage rates, too. The cutoff here was a 5% decrease or more, since there were nearly 50 players who saw a 3% decrease or more, and that's simply too big of a list to deal with.

We all tried to warn you that Jaylen Brown would take a massive hit in Philly! His scoring is down eight points per game, and he's settled in at 74th overall in 9-CAT. Hey, that's right around where I had him ranked! He's still super useful, but let's all acknowledge he was drafted a round or two (or even three) too early! If you did that, it's okay! It's going to cripple your team or anything, but 21-7-4 from Brown is probably what we're going to get barring a long-term injury to Embiid, LeBron, or Tyrese Maxey.

I was down on Alex Sarr coming into the season, and people were asking me why. My fears are being realized as he's playing only 25 minutes and sitting at 15% usage. While he still can do a lot of great things out there, like block shots and stretch the floor as a big man, his shots on offense are going to Anthony Davis and A.J. Dybantsa.

French connection is strong 🤞 https://t.co/dwUKOsvxee

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) October 28, 2026

He's not a cut candidate, and selling low doesn't make much sense, considering AD is made of glass, but he's been easily one of the most disappointing players out of the gate. Hang in there and ride it out for now.

Let's focus as much as we can on the players who really matter the most; I'm running out of words!

Jalen Green is a cut candidate - there I said it. His value comes from scoring the basketball, and a big hit in usage is a massive blow to his fantasy value. Phoenix is an absolute disaster of a basketball team, with none of their parts fitting together at all at the moment.

The decreased usage for Embiid isn't all that problematic, because you probably got him later in drafts anyway. Fewer minutes and shot attempts aren't all that big of a deal for his value, because if he stays healthy and plays 50+ games, he's going to put up very useful numbers. We'll take 19 and 9 from Embiid if he can avoid a lengthy absence this year.

Domantas Sabonis at 15% is a major red flag. This situation in Sacramento is going to be really interesting to watch play out. He very obviously isn't thrilled with Darius Acuff Jr. coming in and firing up 20+ shots per game, or with the offense flowing through Acuff instead of him.

Domantas Sabonis reportedly wants out of Sacramento, per @BannedMacMahon.

(h/t @TheNBABase) https://t.co/N63syplFdB

— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) November 2, 2026

His rebounding and FG% are propping up his rank, but he's averaging under 10 points per game over their last three games, and they've won just one game.

I thought a boost in efficiency would help make up for James Harden's decrease in usage this year. But he's still shooting just 39% from the floor and has seen his scoring dip to 16 points per game. Yuck! I think he'll level off around 43-44% and that creeps back up to 18-19 PPG, but you still have to reset expectations for him this season.

I noticed this preseason that Josh Giddey was taking fewer shots, and that has certainly carried over into the regular season, too. He's averaging just 9.1 points per game, though he's hit double figures now in four straight. His minutes are down, too. Perhaps that's intentional or a product of a handful of blowouts already, but it's certainly not a good thing if it persists, as Giddey simply has to be on the floor in order to rack up the boards and assists that make up the bulk of his value.

Caleb Wilson, Matas Buzelis, and Norman Powell are going to eat first in this offense with Giddey functioning as the main distributor. But we'd really like to see something closer to 15 points per game or his value takes a pretty big hit, since he's already a liability in both FG% and FT%.

Why in the world is a scorer as talented as Trey Murphy III sitting at 17% usage? He's cracked 20 points just once this season and has taken more than 12 shots just once, too. The Pelicans are a joke of a franchise, and they have no clue what to do with this mismatched roster. Right now, Jeremiah Fears is starting and taking too many bad shots. But Murphy wasn't getting looks with Dejounte Murray starting either. Zion Williamson is sucking up shot attempts, too. I really hope they make some trades, because Murphy is too good to be pushed into a secondary role on a bad team. Just hold for now; you're never going to get a good return on him in a trade.

Harden isn't the only Cavalier with lower usage this season. Spider Mitchell is down to 26% and averaging just 22 points per game. He's not likely to return second-round value at this rate, and the truth is that the Cavs are a better team when they have more balance on offense.

Meleek Thomas telling Donovan Mitchell to make the extra pass https://t.co/5FYguXIylx

— Cavaliers Nation (@WeAreCavsNation) November 3, 2026

Mitchell should really embrace a slightly smaller role, and the Cavs should be feeding Evan Mobley. We'll see how that plays out, but the early numbers suggest that Donovan doesn't sniff the 28 PPG that he put up last season. He'll need to improve his efficiency in order to get close to returning value at his ADP this year.

I'm not that worried about De'Aaron Fox's dip in usage. We knew that once they decided to go with the three-guard lineup and start Dylan Harper, his shots had to come from somewhere, and Fox is taking only about 10 shots per game right now. But his efficiency is through the roof, as he's shooting 58% from the floor. The Spurs have also blown several teams out, leading to fewer minutes for their starters. I think this is a situation where all three guards can be very useful for fantasy without any of them scoring 20 points per game.

MPJ flirted with 30% usage last year in Brooklyn, but the arrival of Julius Randle has clearly cut into that. He's still averaging 20.7 points per game and knocking down 3.4 threes, but it's pretty clear that he's not going to dominate the usage this season like he did last year. I think he's still just fine where you drafted him, but I'm curious to see what his role looks like as Mikel Brown Jr. earns more minutes with the starters, too. Stay tuned.

Rookie Usage Rates

We knew this rookie class was going to be special, but I'm not sure any of us saw this type of barrage of scoring coming from this group. Darius Acuff Jr.'s 32% usage is the highest by any rookie since Victor Wembanyama and higher than guys like Luka Doncic and Michael Jordan as rookies!

I thought we'd see the Kings hand him the keys to the offense, and they surely have. But his 26 points per game, 6.3 assists, and 3.0 threes also come with 40% FG% and 3.6 turnovers. Points league players don't care about that too much, but the inefficiency is going to hold him back in category leagues.

It's only been three games, but I'm ready to be very wrong about Dybantsa. I thought he'd take a backseat in Washington, but he's averaging 19 points per game and doing it on 50% shooting. He's still not doing much else besides scoring, but at least he's scoring efficiently, and 93% from the free-throw line on five attempts is absolute gold.

AJ Dybantsa recorded the first 20+ PT GAME of his NBA career!

21 PTS
5 REB
3 STL

The @WashWizards win on the road 👏 https://t.co/JP95CzJa68

— NBA (@NBA) November 3, 2026

It's too early for victory laps, but Yaxel Lendeborg looks like a grown man out there and is giving us 21.5 points, 7.0 boards, 3.9 assists, and 2.5 threes per game on 50% FG%. His turnovers are a bit high, but I think I can live with that, and it's a product of him having to be the primary playmaker in games where Stephen Curry sits out.

Caleb Wilson and Cameron Boozer have been fantastic, too, and are sitting in the mid-20s for usage. That's actually a fantastic sweet spot for them, as they both can do other things (rebound and pass for Boozer, rebound and defend for Wilson) that bring us a ton of fantasy value.

I don't have enough words to ramble about the rest of this group, but man, it's an exciting batch of rookies. I included all of the players who are getting 18 minutes a night, with Burries the one exception at 17 because he started the other night, and I see that number going up in a hurry.

That's all for today. I hope you join me here again in a few weeks for some deep stat dives!

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