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Andrew Ball's risky fantasy football tight ends draft picks to target or avoid. Fantasy football tight end (TE) sleepers and busts analysis for 2026.
Every fantasy football prospect comes with some degree of risk. It could be a significant injury history, a low-scoring offense, or workload uncertainty.
The top players in the draft carry little risk. That risk-reward balance starts to shift in the middle rounds. Managers have to sort through players with noticeable flaws and decide which players are worth the risk.
In this series of articles, we'll weigh the pros and cons of some middle-to-late round players at each position. Below, we sort through tight ends who have fans and detractors.
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Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
Just a few short years ago, Sam LaPorta exploded onto the tight end scene and was widely regarded as one of the best dynasty assets at the position. The hype train has slowed down, but there are still coals in the fire box.
Pros: The Detroit Lions did the fantasy football community a massive favor by finishing last in the NFC North. Their fellow last-place division finishers in the conference are on the schedule, as well as a cross-conference match with the AFC East, aka freebies against the Jets and Dolphins. Overall, it’s one of the softest schedules in the league.
Head coach Dan Campbell isn’t one to let his foot off the gas, either. The Lions could be up three touchdowns, and Jared Goff will still be slinging.
That bodes well for LaPorta, whose advanced statistics don't indicate the same fall-off that his raw numbers do. 2.14 yards per route run and 0.47 fantasy points per route run rank inside the top 10 among tight ends with at least 40 targets. He also set career-best marks in yards per game (54.3), yards per target (10), yards per reception (12.2), and catch rate (81.6%).
New offensive coordinator Drew Petzing joins the Lions after spending three seasons in Arizona. LaPorta isn't the same talent as Trey McBride, but Petzing has a proven tight-end-friendly offense. McBride had 100+ targets in each of their three seasons together, topping out at 169 last season.
Cons: Jahmyr Gibbs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jameson Williams. Isaac TeSlaa.
LaPorta is definitely behind two of those names in the offensive pecking order. The case could be made that he's behind Williams. TeSlaa is likely to steal valuable red-zone targets.
The tight end out-targeted Williams 49 to 47 in the nine games that LaPorta played. Notably, Williams took off after LaPorta's season came to an early end. What's unclear is whether that was a product of LaPorta's injury or the change in Detroit's play-caller. Campbell's first game calling plays was LaPorta's final game.
While LaPorta is fully practicing at training camp, the back surgery that forced him to regain nerve strength throughout his legs is worrisome.
Verdict: LaPorta has top-5 upside, but is drafted outside that window. The 25-year-old often slips into the seventh, sometimes even eighth round, where he becomes an easy choice to round out a starting fantasy football lineup.
Kyle Pitts Sr., Atlanta Falcons
How many times have we been here before? Is this the year Pitts fulfills his NFL Draft destiny and becomes a more consistent fantasy football tight end?
Pros: He had the fifth-most PPR fantasy points by a tight end ever in Week 15.
The three-touchdown performance was a brief glimpse into the upside of the 2021 fourth overall pick. Some details made the matchup-winning stat line circumstantial, but we'll get to that in a minute. Ultimately, Pitts finished as the TE2 with career-highs in receptions (88) and touchdowns (five).
He's now a crucial part of an Atlanta offense tailor-made to his strengths. New head coach Kevin Stefanski turned David Njoku into a league winner in 2023 and rookie Harold Fannin Jr. into the TE6 last season. Overall, Stefanski's Browns targeted the position at the second-highest rate leaguewide since his tenure began.
And it's not like Stefanski has the luxury of leaning on other pass-catchers. Jahan Dotson, Olamide Zaccheaus, or rookie Zachariah Branch will be lined up opposite Drake London. Pitts is the second option in the passing game, and the $53 million extension he signed this offseason reflects that.
KP incoming 😤 pic.twitter.com/idGx1dEDkG
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) August 1, 2026
Cons: Let's first dive into the aforementioned circumstances. 35 catches, 422 yards, and three touchdowns came with London on the sidelines. That's 45.4% of Pitts' final yardage in just five games.
Kirk Cousins was under center for the majority of Pitts' production. The veteran was notorious for hyper-targeting tight ends, from Jordan Reed to Kyle Rudolph to T.J. Hockenson and everyone in between. The starting QB this year will either be Michael Penix Jr., who Pitts struggled with last season, or, more likely, Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa could be fine for Pitts and London, but the Falcons could easily still be a bottom-10 scoring offense, just as they were last season.
Verdict: I don't dislike Pitts as a fantasy prospect this season. He could command 120+ targets. However, generally speaking, I'm a great-or-late tight end drafter.
You could lock down a flex spot with Carnell Tate or Jaylen Warren and snag Travis Kelce, Isaiah Likely, or the next name on this list further down the board. Selecting Pitts could force you to take Kyle Monangai as a flex starter.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid was the prize of the 2023 rookie tight end class. Now, he's been usurped by LaPorta and Tucker Kraft and labeled a disappointment.
Cons: Let's switch things up because it's fair to start with the cons for Kincaid. His best finish (TE11) was three years ago during his rookie season. Since then, targets dropped from 91 to 75 to 49. He's yet to exceed 700 receiving yards and grabbed just 39 balls last season.
It's hard to catch passes when you're not on the field, and that was often the case for Kincaid. He played just 37.6% of Buffalo's snaps last season, topping out at 55% in Week 3. He's never truly been a full-time player, thanks to steady veteran Dawson Knox, but a PCL injury from 2024 hampered him throughout 2025.
New head coach and former offensive coordinator Joe Brady wants to run the football, and they did so with great success in 2025. The Bills had the second-highest run rate in football, trailing only the Baltimore Ravens.
Pros: What Kincaid lacked in volume, he redeemed in efficiency.
Kincaid secured a career-best five touchdowns last season. That's not an impressive number, tied for 13th among tight ends, but he did score on 7.8% of his receptions. That's important to note because of the aforementioned minimal snaps that Kincaid saw. His development as a red-zone threat will stick if/when the snap counts return to normal.
Those PCL injuries can really linger (see: Ricky Pearsall), but Kincaid has publicly said that he feels back to normal and there's been a steady drumbeat to increase his usage.
"Dalton man he had such a great offseason. The conditioning test yesterday, he absolutely knocked it out of the park."
"He's in a great place."
"You guys know impactful he is on our football team."
- #Bills HC Joe Brady on the status of TE Dalton Kincaid.#BillsMafia
— Justin Siejak 📝 (@justinsiejak) July 29, 2026
Kincaid ranked first among qualified tight ends in yards per route run (3.19), targets per route run (0.27), fantasy points per route run (0.70), and yards per target (11.65). Imagine a world where Kincaid jumps back to a 70-80% route participation rate as he did in his rookie season. Woah.
Verdict: Buffalo is projected to be one of the league's top-scoring offenses once again. Even if the playbook is slanted in James Cook III's direction, the best fantasy quarterback is still under center, and the touchdowns must go somewhere. DJ Moore is a fine addition to the roster, but hasn't ever been a go-to option in the red zone.
Kincaid will often be available in the double-digit rounds. It's essentially a free gamble for managers who load up on running backs, wide receivers, or even a quarterback early. Sign me up.
Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers
In a loaded 2025 tight end draft class, Oronde Gadsden II became the talk of the town in the middle of the season. He had his mini-breakout before Colston Loveland did.
Pros: Gadsden, a fifth-round pick, strung together 7-68, 7-164-1, 5-77-1, and 5-68 in Weeks 6 through 9, instantly becoming a waiver-wire, league-winner candidate. The former collegiate wide receiver was quickly regarded as one of the best downfield threats at the position.
The rookie averaged 13.6 yards per reception (third among qualified tight ends), 9.6 yards per target (fourth), earned nine deep targets (third), and 14 red-zone targets (ninth).
Cons: We can appreciate the receiving prowess, but have to acknowledge that his subpar blocking skills will take him off the field. When offensive tackle Joe Alt got hurt the second time, which ended his season, Gadsden's snap counts dropped. Subsequently, he averaged 2.1 catches and 26.3 yards. The Chargers needed better blockers on the field.
Alt and fellow tackle Rashawn Slater are healthy to start training camp. Their status may go a long way in determining Gadsden's playing time, especially because the Chargers signed free agent Charlie Kolar in the offseason.
Kolar was primarily used as a blocker in Baltimore. However, let's not forget that he racked up 2,100+ yards and 23 touchdowns during his tenure at Iowa State. Njoku is also part of the squad now. This could be a three-tight-end rotation.
Then there's the deep wide receiver room: Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Tre' Harris, and Brenen Thompson. The latter ran the fastest 40-yard dash time in the class and will have play packages to stretch the defense. The other trio will command a very healthy target share.
There's also a fullback (a good one at that) on the roster! It all adds up to the style offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is going for. The former Miami head coach is known for his offensive innovation, full of pre-snap motion, but he plays at a slower pace. The Dolphins ranked ninth in run-play rate and 31st in total plays per game last season.
Verdict: Casual fantasy managers will see the Gadsden name, remember the boom burst, and take a chance on the second-year pro. Don't be the casual fantasy manager.
There will likely be boom weeks, and he'll appear in waiver wire columns across the fantasy community. With a slower-paced offense and immense target competition, I prefer a more consistent option with an equal weekly scoring chance, if not better. Jake Ferguson and Dallas Goedert immediately come to mind.
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