2026 Cognizant Classic PGA Power Rankings: Top 10 Golfers To Watch

February 25, 2026

Ian McNeill ranks his top-10 PGA Tour players to watch at the 2026 Cognizant Classic at PGA National Resort. His data-backed insights into who is primed for success.

While there was a time when PGA National played host to seven of the top 10 players in the world, this year's schedule has it situated directly in the middle of four Signature Events.

The result is a field without a single player in the world's top 25, and an odds board more reminiscent of a Swing Season stop than the start of the iconic Florida Swing. This absence of star power does present an opportunity for the many young stars in this field, as a host of former top amateurs, trending talents, and up-and-coming 20-somethings aim to make their claim for a breakthrough win.

But how does this field stack up at the top? Who, if anyone, should you be targeting on pre-week betting boards? Without further ado, here are my top-10 players to watch at this week's 2026 Cognizant Classic!

No. 10 - David Ford

In a field largely devoid of superstar talent, perhaps the biggest wild cards this week fall under the category of uncapped potential and elite tools. David Ford certainly fits both categories.

The third player ever to earn full status as the No. 1 player in the PGA Tour University Rankings -- the 23-year-old North Carolina grad had every bit of the college career as Ludvig Aberg or Michael Thorbjornsen before him -- he set school records for scoring average (70.13), cumulative score to par (-162), and individual wins (seven).

Life as a professional didn't exactly get off to a flying start, however, as Ford missed seven of his first eight cuts and failed to record a finish better than 44th over his first 10 starts on Tour.

Despite that lackluster results sheet, one facet of Ford's game did prove to translate right off the bat: his driver. Right off the bat, Ford rated out as one of the most accurate players on Tour in his rookie season. And through three starts in 2026, he's No. 1 on the PGA Tour in total driving.

Most encouraging for Ford in 2026, however, has been the development of the other ball-striking facet: his approach play. Across seven measured rounds this year, Ford has gained nearly 0.8 strokes per round with his iron play (ranking right between Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland), and his profile looks even better when accounting for this week's key approach range.

Since the start of the new year, the Tar Heel ranks at or above the 92nd percentile in Strokes Gained per Shot, Proximity to the Hole, GIR%, and Poor Shot Avoidance from 150-200 yards -- a range that has historically accounted for half of approach shots hit around PGA National.

Notably, we saw a similar leap from Jacob Bridgeman before his breakout victory last week at Riviera -- the Clemson product jumped from a tour-average middle-iron player in 2025 to one who ranked inside the Tour's top 10 across his first four starts of 2026.

Of course, it's important to remember that we're dealing with small sample sizes here, but given Ford's past pedigree, his established strengths that already suit this course, and an upbringing in Georgia and North Carolina that will have certainly built his comfort on bermudagrass, he makes for an interesting dark horse in a field without many true superstars.

Priced at over 100-1 in some spots in the outright market, there are a few more compelling upside cases present in Palm Beach Gardens this week.

No. 9 - Johnny Keefer

Johnny Keefer, you are unbelievable 😱

From off the green to in the hole ... Keefer's birdie on the 72nd hole forces a playoff at the Visit Knoxville Open. pic.twitter.com/bSuxFYF96k

— Korn Ferry Tour (@KornFerryTour) May 25, 2025

Similar to Ford, Johnny Keefer isn't operating with the biggest sample on the game's biggest stage. What he does have in comparison to his fellow rookie, however, is a proven pedigree in the professional ranks -- albeit one level lower on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Keefer's 2025 season was truly legendary. He's the only player in the KFT's history to record a sub-68 scoring average for the entire season (67.95), and somehow found a way to excel in key stats in each of the game's four facets:

• 4th in Total Driving
• 12th in Greens in Regulation
• 2nd in Scrambling
• 10th in Putting Average

While he hasn't yet put together a week worthy of contention in 2026, he did finish his campaign last season on a shorter, Bermuda grass golf course, finishing seventh at the RSM Classic. And much like Ford, the underlying stats suggest a young talent poised to break out.

He's gained 1.82 strokes per round with his ball-striking over his first four starts of 2026 -- including a career-best +6.83 rating in his last start around TPC Scottsdale, good for 10th in the field. For reference, that 1.8 per round rating would best everyone on Tour apart from Rory McIlroy and Si Woo Kim through the first two months of 2026.

The chipping and putting have been the clear blind spots in Keefer's transition to the top level, but PGA National should be a welcome landing pad for his ailing short game. Last year, with its overseeded fairways, ryegrass rough, and relatively flat topography, the Champion Course ranked in the bottom six in Strokes Gained difficulty both on and around the greens.

Admittedly, the market has warmed to Keefer faster than it has to Ford, but the underlying stats are again too big to ignore. In a week where it's hard to find a ton of conviction in player profiles, the Baylor product has a very compelling case.

No. 8 - Brooks Koepka

The first two starts on the West Coast didn't go entirely to plan for Brooks Koepka in his PGA Tour return, but perhaps a trip back to his native South Florida can turn his fortunes around. What's encouraging for Koepka is that the ball-striking hasn't been far away, gaining over six shots from tee-to-green in three rounds at Torrey Pines South and hovering right above field average in a missed cut at TPC Scottsdale.

The putter will need to turn around, however, if Koepka has ambitions of replicating his past success around PGA National. He's lost a combined 10.58 strokes on the greens in five recorded rounds thus far in 2026 -- placing him second-to-last among PGA Tour players this season.

The good news is that Koepka does have a documented affinity for the green complexes in Palm Beach Gardens -- logging the best putting week of his entire career here in 2015 (+10.51), and the third-best putting week of his 2019 campaign in a runner-up finish seven years ago (+3.9).

These relatively benign complexes routinely rank as some of the easiest on Tour, and in the last few years, have had no trouble propping up the struggling putters of Doug Ghim, Erik Van Rooyan, Joe Highsmith, and others. Take into account Koepka's roots here in South Florida, and the argument can be made that his baseline projection should receive a boost compared to the West Coast poa annua he's historically struggled on.

The fact is that in a field devoid of any current top-25 players, a name with the stature of Brooks Koepka has to be taken seriously. As many arguments as can be made against his recent form, it will inevitably only take one vintage round for books to boost him among live favorites on odds boards.

The motivation is clearly there to win in his home event, and at 35-1, he's worth monitoring on odds boards as a clear upside play.

No. 7 - Will Zalatoris

In a similar way to Brooks, Will Zalatoris will be fighting the demons of small sample size and recent form when making his winning case this week. We've seen the former star just three times since last May's PGA Championship, and although he strung together finishes of 15th and 18th in the Nedbank and The American Express, he endured the worst per-round putting performance we've seen from Zalatoris in over two years in a missed cut at Torrey Pines South.

The bull case for him very much echoes that of Koepka, however, as we've seen more than enough proof of his elite ball-striking ceiling. Over the last 12 months, he has sat at or above the 94th percentile in Strokes Gained per Shot, proximity to the hole, GIR%, and Good Shot% from 150-200 yards.

Last month at The American Express, he gained over 5.5 strokes between his driving and iron play over two recorded rounds at the Stadium Course.

Zalatoris' only win to date came on a similarly waterlogged/mid-iron intensive layout in Memphis, and he's recorded routinely positive results over his career in Florida (two top 10s in five starts at Bay Hill; three top 30s at TPC Sawgrass). Simply put, in a field lacking much in the way of long-term pedigree, Zalatoris is a name I trust if put in a winning position -- making his current 40-1 price tag a compelling play.

No. 6 - Michael Thorbjornsen

A NEW LEADER.

Michael Thorbjornsen moves to 17-under. pic.twitter.com/OQmRW1dwfW

— Golf on CBS ⛳ (@GolfonCBS) February 8, 2026

After the recent surges of Chris Gotterup and Jacob Bridgeman, it’s easy to look at 24-year-old Michael Thorbjornsen as the next breakout candidate on the PGA Tour. Less than three weeks ago at TPC Scottsdale, he stood alone atop the leaderboard through 15 holes on Sunday before two late bogeys erased his winning chances.

The talent is undeniable. The Stanford product already owns six top-10 finishes in his last 20 Tour starts, and it no longer feels surprising to see the former World No. 1 amateur contending late on a Sunday. The question this week isn’t ability -- it’s fit.

Unlike Scottsdale, where driver was the default play on nearly every tee box, the PGA National Resort demands restraint. Last season, the Champion Course produced one of the highest club-down rates on Tour, neutralizing raw distance and forcing players into positional golf. That dynamic has the potential to mute Thorbjornsen’s most consistent edge.

This isn’t to suggest he’s one-dimensional. He’s shown the ability to spike with his irons and putter, and his all-around skill set continues to mature. But a clear through-line in his best PGA Tour performances -- TPC Scottsdale, Detroit Golf Club, Puntacana -- has been venues that reward aggression and distance off the tee.

The field strength at this year’s Cognizant Classic makes this as inviting an opportunity as he may see all season to capture his first Tour title. The only uncertainty is whether a course built on patience and precision is the ideal stage for his breakthrough.

Nicolai Højgaard has entered the final round with a chance to win on the PGA Tour on multiple occasions, but perhaps no week has carried this level of expectation from the outset.

The 24-year-old Dane arrives in Palm Beach Gardens fresh off a T3 at TPC Scottsdale, where he overcame an early triple bogey with four birdies and an eagle in his final 16 holes to finish just one stroke out of the sudden-death playoff.

With the withdrawals of Jacob Bridgeman, Ben Griffin, and Adam Scott, Højgaard now finds himself positioned as one of the clear favorites. And statistically, the case is straightforward.

Over his last 50 rounds, he ranks seventh in this field, Off the Tee, and third on Approach. He enters the week on the back of a +8.31 tee-to-green performance in Phoenix -- the best ball-striking week of his PGA Tour career. His long-term iron profile also suits the confines of PGA National -- rating at or above the 90th percentile in both Strokes Gained per Shot and GIR% from 150-200 yards.

With four worldwide wins already to his name in seven years as a professional, there's no doubt that he has the pedigree to take down a field like this. He's recorded five top-4 finishes over the last eight months alone, and with just one finish worse than 22nd over his last seven starts, the game is clearly trending.

The problem is that his profile isn't sneaking up on anyone this week. As the third-highest-priced commodity on the board, is he ready to live up to the expectation that comes with a 20-1 outright price tag?

No. 4 - Aaron Rai

Birdie start for last week's winner Aaron Rai 🎯#DPWTC | #RolexSeries pic.twitter.com/mJoGwGiZbC

— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) November 13, 2025

PGA National has been far from a haven for Aaron Rai as he's risen through the ranks, logging an MC and a T66 over his first two visits to Palm Beach Gardens. Although the historic results aren't yet there, the underlying stats suggest the World No. 32 is primed for a run.

Rai's prodigious driving accuracy has already proved a real asset on two of Florida's other iconic venues -- logging finishes of 14th, 35th, and 19th around TPC Sawgrass over the last three seasons, as well as an 11th-place finish around Bay Hill 12 months ago.

In those four starts, Rai has gained both strokes off the tee and on approach -- including the second-best driving week of his entire career at last year's PLAYERS Championship (+4.9).

His iron play echoes a similar course fit; ranking fourth in this field over his last 12 months in Strokes Gained per Shot from 150-200 yards, and first in GIR% from that range. In fact, nobody on the entire PGA Tour has been as precise with their middle irons in that sample. Rai has logged an incredible 78.7% GIR rate since the start of 2025, and an absurd 90.5% since January of this year.

Couple that ball-striking pedigree with the fact that PGA National routinely ranks among the easiest courses on Tour to gain strokes putting, and his only career PGA Tour win came on a positional Bermuda grass course in Sedgefield. I believe the Englishman is being underpriced as the 10th-15th-highest-priced golfer on this board.

With six worldwide wins to his name, he's one of the few in this field who can claim a legitimate champion pedigree -- especially considering his most recent of the six came less than four months ago in a field that included Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, and seven others within the world's top 30.

Rai won't have to go through nearly the same juggernauts to capture this title, and at >40-1, he's one of the few clear values at the top of this board.

Gerard has attained a top-25 world ranking largely on the back of a metronomic ball-striking profile. He's gained over 4.5 strokes on approach in five of his last eight starts -- including 4.68 at last week's Genesis Invitational (fourth in the field). And since the start of last summer, he ranks second in this field with his iron play on a per-round basis.

He’s also become one of the steadier drivers on Tour, beating the field average in driving accuracy in 10 of his last 11 starts. And with positive putting performances in five of his last six, he returns to South Florida (just 20 minutes from his current home in Hobe Sound) with as high a baseline as we've ever seen from Gerard on the greens.

There have been some curious blips in the Daniel Berger game logs to start 2026 -- most notably in a T75 at his beloved Pebble Beach -- but it hasn't all been bad for the FSU alum.

Berger started his season with a Sunday surge around Waialae -- jumping from 20th to sixth by day's end with a final round 64. Two weeks later, he led the Phoenix Open field on approach over four days (+7.64), and now returns to his home state of Florida -- and a venue that historically provided the perfect tonic for a sluggish campaign.

In seven career starts around PGA National, Berger has finished fourth or better on three occasions -- including a runner-up in his tournament debut 11 years ago. Last year, he opened with an 8-under 63 -- his best round in Palm Beach Gardens -- and sat inside the top 10 all week before a Sunday 72 sunk him into a tie for 25th.

His recent spike on approach in Scottsdale feels especially relevant when projecting forward this week, as PGA National features a similarly skewed distribution of approach shots from 150-200 yards. And since 2017 at Cognizant Classic, the South Florida native has gained strokes on the greens in six of seven starts -- including the second-best putting performance of his season last year (+3.0).

It's clear the floor isn't quite what it used to be during Berger's days in the top 15 of the world rankings, but he remains one of the most dangerous names in the field around this waterlogged layout.

Shane Lowry hasn't yet captured this title, but over the last four years, nobody in the history of this event has built a better track record. Finishes of second, fifth, fourth, and 11th since 2022 are already an impressive rap sheet around a golf course as notorious as PGA National, but one facet of his game has proved even more consistent than his end-of-week results.

Across the last four years, nobody has even come close to dialing in their irons better than Lowry. He's gained an average of 6.15 strokes per start on approach alone, and never less than 5.25 in a given week.

The long-term numbers back up Lowry's well-documented affinity for PGA National as well. He ranks second on the entire PGA Tour (behind only Viktor Hovland) in strokes gained per shot from our key range of 150-200 yards.

If this combination of course history and long-term approach splits wasn't enough, the Irishman also comes into his most successful stateside venue with some positive recent momentum.

Since the calendar turned to 2026, Lowry lapped the field with his iron play in the DP World Tour's first start of the new year -- the Dubai Invitational -- gaining 10.8 strokes on approach in a third-place finish.

One week later, Lowry recorded another 4.96 strokes gained on approach in a marquee field at the Dubai Desert Classic. In his first two starts on the PGA Tour this year, Lowry has ranked 11th and 16th in total ball-striking -- going up against the strongest 75-man field the PGA Tour has to offer.