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RotoBaller's Kevin Larson breaks down the MLB Postseason bracket and predicts the outcome for every series from the Wild Card to the World Series.
MLB Playoff Predictions: Picks for Every Playoff Series
With the postseason picture set it now comes down to matchups. Driven by home runs and strikeouts, the postseason is largely dependent on who can master the three true outcomes. But there’s always a spark of surprise each year. Last season it was the Tigers who made a late season run that pushed them into the postseason as they nearly made the ALCS. Who could this year’s surprise be? Or are the favorites going to run the table? Let’s break down the bracket and figure out who’s going to win the 2025 World Series.
American League Wild Card: Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians
It seems unfathomable to know that the Guardians overcame a 15.5 game deficit in the AL Central to surpass the Tigers, whose horrendous September now has them playing on the road in the Wild Card Series. This series doesn’t only present itself as revenge for what happened this year, but it also is a repeat of last season’s ALDS which saw the Guardians knock out the Tigers in five games.
The opener this year will set the tone. Tarik Skubal toes the rubber vs Gavin Williams in a matchup that we already saw on September 23rd. Cleveland won that game 5-2, but there’s going to be more volatility this time around as Skubal will be facing the Guardians for his third straight start. It’s the exact same scenario for Williams as he’ll be facing the Tigers for the third straight time. Neither pitcher should budge in this matchup and it’s essentially a coin flip for Game One.
From there the starting pitcher matchups look to favor the Guardians. Detroit’s likely to throw Jack Flaherty in Game Two. Flaherty has been a worse pitcher on the road (5.27 ERA) and struggled in last season’s playoffs with the Dodgers (7.36 ERA). Cleveland will throw Tanner Bibee in Game Two and he was strong against Detroit last season and his been great at home this year. Both are in the same scenario as Skubal and Williams where it will be their third straight start against the same opponent, but the edge goes to Cleveland.
If Game Three is needed then the Tigers are likely to throw Casey Mize, who’s been very solid against Cleveland. The Guardians will likely throw Joey Cantillo in Game Three. This matchup appears to be a draw, but the bullpen edge goes to Cleveland. The Guardians should close it out in three games, if not in two, and then head on over to Seattle.
Prediction: Guardians in Three
American League Wild Card Series: Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Another divisional matchup to kick off the playoffs in the American League and this one should be fantastic. This should be a great fight to watch and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see the winner of this series represent the American League in the World Series. But let’s figure out who wins this matchup first.
In Game One we have Max Fried facing off against Garrett Crochet. While Fried has been solid against Boston this year, Crochet has been the star pitcher this series. Boston is 4-0 in his starts against New York in which he’s racked up 39 Ks in 27.1 IP. But against Fried they’ve failed to score more than three runs in three games against him. That leaves the edge up to the bullpen in Game One. Both excelled in xFIP in September (3.64 for Yankees, 3.76 for Red Sox) but Boston’s 3.45 bullpen ERA in September was superior to New York’s (5.13). Even though New York’s expecting positive regression, the slight edge goes to Boston in Game One.
Beyond these aces is where the series will be won. Expect the Yankees to throw Carlos Rodon in Game Two and Cam Schittler should be lined up for Game Three. Boston should throw Brayan Bello in Game Two and Connelly Early will likely be lined up for Game Three (Lucas Giolito will be out with an elbow issue). The splits all line up as strength on strength with the Yankees’ pitchers being solid at home and Boston’s pitchers being solid on the road, though there may be a big question mark with Early and his small amount of MLB experience.
In this situation I’m forced to take the Yankees in these two games given that their offense has been hitting much more effectively in the second half of the season compared to the Red Sox (117 wRC+ for Yankees, 97 wRC+ for Boston). It’s going to be tight, and I can see it going either way, but the offensive effectiveness and home field advantage make me side with the Yankees here. If their bullpen is non-existent, though, then this can easily go the other way. But as of now I see the Yankees heading to Toronto for the ALDS.
Prediction: Yankees in Three
National League Wild Card Series: San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs
The postseason is back at Wrigley Field for the first time since 2020 and the first time in a full season since 2018. But it’s not going to be easy against a really tough Padres team. Making it tougher for the Cubs, their superb rookie starter Cade Horton won’t be able to pitch this round as he’s on the IL with a rib injury. That puts their starting pitching front and center, which hasn’t been a strength.
Game One will feature Nick Pivetta on the mound for the Padres. He has been San Diego’s best pitcher in the second half, throwing to a 2.86 ERA in the second half. That’s paired with a 4.19 xFIP, though, so negative regression may be an advantage for the Cubs. Chicago is going to throw Matthew Boyd. He hasn’t been as solid in the second half as he was to start the season and that’s going to put a ton of pressure on Chicago’s offense to get a lead. Especially because San Diego’s bullpen has been lethal.
Game Two should be interesting early on. Expect San Diego to throw Dylan Cease, whose second half has been rough but has turned around in September. Shota Imanaga should get the nod here as Jameson Taillon likely won’t be able to start until Game Three. That tilts the scales in San Diego’s favor, especially if they get an early lead.
The Cubs’ bullpen has been more solid than the stats may suggest in the second half (4.13 ERA, 3.39 xFIP) but it’s not going to matter much if the Padres get an early lead. That’s because their bullpen (2.87 ERA, 3.69 xFIP) is one of the best in baseball. Chicago’s offense has picked it up in September but it may not matter for October. The Padres take it and make a short flight over to Milwaukee.
Prediction: Padres in Two
National League Wild Card Series: Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers
Congrats to the Cincinnati Reds for making the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013. Your reward? A matchup in Los Angeles against the Dodgers.
Game One will feature a matchup between Blake Snell and Hunter Greene. This will be a very tough task for Greene not only because of the lineup he’s facing, but because he’s not been the same pitcher when throwing away from Great American Ballpark, posting a 4.81 ERA compared to his 1.58 ERA at home. The 26-year-old gave up three runs on six hits while striking out just three in five innings against LA at Dodger Stadium in August. Cincinnati also has its struggles, making Game One very advantageous to the Dodgers.
Game Two the Dodgers will throw Yoshinobu Yamamoto while the Reds will likely throw either Andrew Abbott or Nick Lodolo. Factoring in rest days, the start will probably be Lodolo’s. The southpaw hasn’t fared great against the Dodgers in his career with LA’s batters hitting him for a .355 wOBA (.320 xwOBA) in 53 PAs. He allowed 4 ER in 4.2 IP against LA in late August. Yamamoto, on the other hand, has been very solid against Cincinnati in his career.
There likely won’t be a Game Three here, but if there is then expect it to be Shohei Ohtani vs Andrew Abbott. The Dodgers have never faced Abbott but overcoming an Ohtani start will be tough for any pitcher this postseason.
The true wild card (pun intended) is going to be LA’s bullpen. They haven’t been as solid as Dodgers fans would like them to be in the second half. They should inherit plenty of leads, but if they slip up then Dodger fans won’t be happy. It’s the only way I see Cincinnati winning this series, but I don’t think it’s happening. The Dodgers will advance to Philly.
Prediction: Dodgers in Two
American League Division Series: Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners
It all has to come crashing down at some point. Whether that’s the Guardians’ momentum or the Mariners’ hopes, we’ll find out here. Seattle attacked the trade deadline with the goal of making a deep run and they appear ready to do so. But how will they fare against the upstart Guardians in the ALDS?
The season stats lean towards the Mariners, who were 4-2 against the Guardians this season. That included a sweep at T-Mobile Park in June. Seattle will be well rested and the environment their fans create should be ecstatic. With the Guardians using their top arms to get past Detroit, we should expect Seattle to start hot. Either Luis Castillo or Logan Gilbert should lead for Seattle with Castillo having more rest. The Guardians will probably deploy Logan Allen and Slade Cecconi in games one and two. That’s an edge for the Mariners.
Seattle also sees an edge from a hitting perspective as they were the best hitting team in baseball with a 128 wRC+ in September. Cleveland was just about league average at 101, but that’s a rather large gap. The Mariners also win the home run battle against Cleveland, something incredibly important in the playoffs.
When it comes to the bullpens these two are evenly matched. They ranked first and third by xFIP in September, showing they’re in strong form heading into the playoffs. If Cleveland happens to get an early lead then they may be able to snag a couple wins, but the opportunities against this strong Seattle team will be few and far between. The Mariners should advance to the ALCS.
Prediction: Mariners in Four
American League Division Series: New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays
It’s been a really solid season for the Blue Jays but injuries may be starting to get the best of them. Their rotation is now a bit piecemealed together and they may not have a key contributor in their lineup with Bo Bichette dealing with a knee issue. That’s not something you want with the New York Yankees coming to town.
Toronto’s likely going to have Kevin Gausman pitch Game One. Gausman is no stranger to the Yankees. New York batters have seen him 300 times in his career, hitting him for a .362 wOBA to go with a .382 xwOBA. Most of that comes from Aaron Judge (.520 wOBA, .555 xwOBA) and Giancarlo Stanton (.481 wOBA, .417 xwOBA). How Gausman handles those two will determine how Game One is going to go for Toronto. Expect the Yankees to counter with Luis Gil in Game One, who should be formidable if he can keep his walks under control.
The Blue Jays should throw Shane Bieber in Game Two, who’s historically been good against New York. Yankees batters haven’t seen him since 2023, so the edge likely goes to Bieber in this game. The Yankees probably get back to Max Fried’s spot in the rotation here, who’s had scattered results against Toronto this season.
Past that, Toronto’s biggest worry comes from their bullpen. Similar to New York, they’ve struggled in the second half. Additionally, their starting pitching depth takes a nose dive after Bieber. Trey Yesavage has been solid in three starts this season, but how will he fare in a likely start at Yankee Stadium in October? Both lineups are solid, but the pitching is the separator here. The Yankees should win at least one in Toronto, giving them an edge to finish it at home.
Prediction: Yankees in Four
National League Division Series: San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers
The Padres own a surprisingly strong 5-1 record against Milwaukee this season, but three of those games came at the end of the season with the NL Central already wrapped up and the Padres slated pretty snugly in the five seed without room to move. So it was fairly inconsequential. But that doesn’t quite mean that Milwaukee’s going to blow them away as the National League’s best regular season team.
In Game One we’ll see the Brewers start Freddy Peralta. He’s their best and most reliable starter with a pitching mentality that will usually lead to playoff success. His main goal is to strike you out and nothing less, so Milwaukee should be solid with him as a Game One starter. San Diego, as long as they win in two against Chicago, will likely be starting Yu Darvish in this spot. Darvish has not been himself this season as he’s come back from injury, though he’s rounded more into form in September. That may not be enough to stop Milwaukee in Game One, though.
Game Two is where it will really start to get interesting for both clubs. Milwaukee has been facing a rash of pitching injuries so they can’t throw a guy like Brandon Woodruff in this spot, nor Jose Quintana. They’ll have to turn to Quinn Priester, who’s been very solid in his own right and likely can give Milwaukee a very solid chance in Game Two. Past him it get murky, though, as they’ll either have to turn to rookie Jacob Misiorowski or work with a couple bullpen games.
San Diego could very well be in the same spot as they don’t have reliable starters on the roster past Pivetta, Cease and Darvish. Their bullpen is solid and can keep them in any game, but with only Pivetta being a strong starter how many innings until they fall? This series is going to be closer than I think most will believe, but Milwaukee should edge it out at the end.
Prediction: Milwaukee in Five
National League Division Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
For the past month or so I’ve been mentioning in my weekly power rankings just how important of a piece Zack Wheeler has been to the Phillies, both in the regular season and especially the postseason. This is a spot where I think he will be sorely missed.
That’s because Philly’s rotation will line up with three lefties and a struggling Aaron Nola. Now those lefties are incredibly solid (Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Jesus Luzardo) but the Dodgers are one of baseball’s best teams when it comes to hitting lefties. Additionally, in their most recent series in LA, the Dodgers held the lead going into the sixth inning of each game where the Phillies started Sanchez, Suarez and Luzardo. The bullpen blew two of those games, which is important, but there’s opportunity for the Dodgers.
They’ll have to repeat against likely Game One starter Cristopher Sanchez, whose 2.50 ERA led the Phillies’ staff this season. Suarez (3.20 ERA) and Luzardo (3.92 ERA) are likely to follow. Where the Phillies decide to put a struggling Aaron Nola (6.01 ERA) will be a big question, whether Game Four makes sense for him or if they fit him in before Luzardo to break up the string of lefties.
The Dodgers, meanwhile, have a lot fewer questions about their starting rotation. Tyler Glasnow should get the Game One start here and Shohei Ohtani probably gets Game Two (assuming he doesn’t pitch against Cincinnati). They get the starting pitching edge. The lineups here are fairly equal, though the Phillies have an edge by wRC+. The bullpens certainly skew towards Philadelphia.
However, I can’t seem to shake the feeling that the Dodgers get by here. No Zack Wheeler and a subpar version of Aaron Nola, leading to a string of lefties on the mound, severely hurts the Phillies’ chances here. If LA’s bullpen is locked down then the Phillies are likely to be sent home.
Prediction: Dodgers in Four
American League Championship Series: New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners
Coming into the ALCS it’s certain that the Mariners will have had the easier path and likely will be more rested. The Yankees, on the other hand, have the potential to have already played eight games at this point (a lengthy series vs both Boston and Toronto could be likely). That will be a disadvantage for New York, but they also will have confidence heading into this matchup as they’re 5-1 against Seattle this season.
Now all of that came before the trade deadline. And since that last series in early July, the Mariners are 42-27. That’s nearly a 99 win pace over a 162 game season, making the Mariners incredibly formidable.
Breaking down the matchups here, the pitching staffs are pretty evenly matched. The one to watch is Logan Gilbert, whose past ventures against the Yankees haven’t gone very well. However, he’s in a better spot this season and that could look different in the ALCS. Bryan Woo also has surprisingly good numbers against New York in his career, though a recent pectoral issue could hamper his availability and performance should he be able to pitch in the ALCS.
For New York, their biggest worry is going to be the bullpen. If it hasn’t figured out its issues by the ALCS then they’ve probably already been eliminated. If they have then it will always been in the back of their minds. And Seattle’s lineup is one that can punish you with the long ball at any spot in the lineup.
But the difference maker here should be Seattle’s phenomenal bullpen that will have a lot fewer innings on it than New York’s at this point. With a solid pen, solid rotation and a lineup that can hit the longball at any point, Seattle should advance to the World Series for the first time in franchise history.
Prediction: Mariners in Six
National League Championship Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching depth and bullpens are so, so important in October. Here we will have a clash where one teams has a dominant edge in starting pitching while the other has an edge in the bullpen.
The Dodgers are the ones with a clear edge in the starting pitching department. Ohtani, Glasnow, Yamamoto and Snell should be able to hold the Brewers’ lineup down for the most part. If they can’t then it will be up to their bullpen, which we’ve already discussed is the main worry with the Dodgers.
On the flipside, Milwaukee’s pitching depth will be very questionable past Peralta. To win this series Milwaukee would really like to have Brandon Woodruff back, though it’s yet to be determined when he’ll be available. And if he is his effectiveness will certainly be in question. So just how far can Milwaukee go with a piecemealed rotation? They should have southpaw Jose Quintana back from the IL by this time, but his underlying stats (3.96 ERA, 5.17 xERA, 4.92 xFIP), mixed with the Dodgers’ 111 wRC+ vs lefties, doesn’t exactly breed confidence.
In the regular season the Dodgers weren’t able to squeak out a single win vs Milwaukee. That’s going to give the Brewers a ton of confidence that they can pull this off and make it to the World Series for the first time since 1982. But that’s also going to be on LA’s mind as they look to repeat. I tend to believe that the starting pitching deficiencies will come back to haunt Milwaukee more than LA’s potential bullpen issues may haunt them, so it’s the Dodgers advancing to the World Series for the fourth time in the past nine seasons.
Prediction: Dodgers in Six
World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Seattle Mariners
A rematch from a series at the very end of the season is what we’re predicting for the World Series here. Safe to say that the majority of MLB fans will be pulling for Seattle here. But can the Mariners pull off the miracle? Let’s dig in.
The starting rotations here are pretty even, though you have to side with the Dodgers due to them having a lot more playoff experience. At this level the nerves may get to you and that has to be factored in here. Los Angeles has a bit more depth here in terms of trustworthiness.
The lineup edge goes to the Mariners. LA’s lineup can traditionally be very top heavy while Seattle’s is a little more complete from top to bottom. Both have the ability to hit for power and average, making this nearly a wash.
The bullpen edge goes to Seattle. As we’ve mentioned, LA has worries late even though their starting rotation is solid. So this really comes down to what will be more of an advantage between starting pitchers and the bullpen.
In my eyes, it’s the starting pitching that matters most. And the Dodgers have the best all-around rotation in the playoffs this season. The Mariners aren’t going to go without a fight, but I believe the Dodgers become the first repeat champion since the Yankees in 1999 and 2000.
Prediction: Dodgers in Six
